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remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":4,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":57,"games_left":4,"gap_to_leader":19,"gap_to_safety":20,"gap_to_europe":-4},"away":{"state":"european_chase","position":6,"points":53,"games_left":4,"gap_to_leader":23,"gap_to_safety":16,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.8,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":5.2}]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Artur Jorge has 41 matches in charge at Cruzeiro, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Artur Jorge","matches_in_charge":41,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":1.88,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rogério Ceni has 30 matches in charge at Bahia, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Rogério Ceni","matches_in_charge":30,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":1.4,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.083333333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bahia come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":8,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.181,"defence":0.031,"effective_matches":17.6,"shrunk":0.31},"away":{"attack":0.118,"defence":-0.011,"effective_matches":17.9,"shrunk":0.31}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53.9,"shots":15.6,"xg_per_shot":0.108,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.294,"finishing_vs_xg":0.15},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.5,"shots":14.4,"xg_per_shot":0.127,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.376,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.25},"possession_gap":1.4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.15,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bahia have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.25,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"224 yellow cards in this referee's last 54 games, where 253 would be usual in this league, and 19 reds.","evidence":{"matches":54,"yellows_per_match":4.15,"reds_per_match":0.352,"league_yellows_per_match":4.69,"league_reds_per_match":0.288,"yellow_ratio":0.88,"red_ratio":1.22},"strength":0.104,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-2.6}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bahia travel 957 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":957},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.6,"temperature_c":22,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.32999098983606523},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Bahia are in trouble, and not only on results. Bahia have faced six or more efforts on target in five of their last six games. They are getting opened up. And they are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. On top of that, they shoot plenty but from poor positions: 15 on target from 74 shots in their last six. Until Bahia sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6845,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":7327,"event_date":"2026-11-06T00:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":150,"home_team":"Cruzeiro","away_team_id":166,"away_team":"Bahia","league_id":9,"league_name":"Brasileirão Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":55.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5569,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":7327,"event_date":"2026-11-06T00:30:00Z","home_team":"Cruzeiro","away_team":"Bahia","polymarket_event_id":"1245839","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":655.991231,"volume_1wk":707.463985,"volume_1mo":707.463985,"volume_1yr":707.463985,"open_interest":641.849381,"liquidity_clob":21445.5455,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.56,"best_ask":0.57,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":0.01,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.17,"Cruzeiro EC 0 - 0 EC Bahia":0.043,"Cruzeiro EC 0 - 1 EC Bahia":0.045,"Cruzeiro EC 0 - 2 EC Bahia":0.0265,"Cruzeiro EC 0 - 3 EC Bahia":0.0105,"Cruzeiro EC 0 - 4 EC Bahia":0.03,"Cruzeiro EC 0 - 5 EC Bahia":0.0845,"Cruzeiro EC 1 - 0 EC Bahia":0.08,"Cruzeiro EC 1 - 1 EC Bahia":0.105,"Cruzeiro EC 1 - 2 EC Bahia":0.055,"Cruzeiro EC 1 - 3 EC Bahia":0.022,"Cruzeiro EC 1 - 4 EC Bahia":0.017,"Cruzeiro EC 1 - 5 EC Bahia":0.0295,"Cruzeiro EC 2 - 0 EC Bahia":0.08,"Cruzeiro EC 2 - 1 EC Bahia":0.1,"Cruzeiro EC 2 - 2 EC Bahia":0.06,"Cruzeiro EC 2 - 3 EC Bahia":0.022,"Cruzeiro EC 2 - 4 EC Bahia":0.0305,"Cruzeiro EC 2 - 5 EC Bahia":0.045,"Cruzeiro EC 3 - 0 EC Bahia":0.0565,"Cruzeiro EC 3 - 1 EC Bahia":0.065,"Cruzeiro EC 3 - 2 EC Bahia":0.0405,"Cruzeiro EC 3 - 3 EC Bahia":0.015,"Cruzeiro EC 3 - 4 EC Bahia":0.0395,"Cruzeiro EC 3 - 5 EC Bahia":0.23,"Cruzeiro EC 4 - 0 EC Bahia":0.0205,"Cruzeiro EC 4 - 1 EC Bahia":0.0305,"Cruzeiro EC 4 - 2 EC Bahia":0.015,"Cruzeiro EC 4 - 3 EC Bahia":0.1545,"Cruzeiro EC 4 - 4 EC Bahia":0.0345,"Cruzeiro EC 4 - 5 EC Bahia":0.1795,"Cruzeiro EC 5 - 0 EC Bahia":0.039,"Cruzeiro EC 5 - 1 EC Bahia":0.049,"Cruzeiro EC 5 - 2 EC Bahia":0.2435,"Cruzeiro EC 5 - 3 EC Bahia":0.155,"Cruzeiro EC 5 - 4 EC Bahia":0.175,"Cruzeiro EC 5 - 5 EC Bahia":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T12:57:23Z"}},"computed_at":1793887742,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0b408d","away":"#0b3882"},"venue":{"name":"Governador Magalhães Pinto","city":"Belo Horizonte","capacity":61927},"pulled":[],"published":[]}