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remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":5,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":38,"games_left":5,"gap_to_leader":32,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":13},"away":{"state":"title_race","position":1,"points":70,"games_left":5,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":36,"gap_to_europe":-19},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Local derby. Cards and both-teams-to-score are the reliable reads; total goals are not, since derbies run cagey about as often as they run open.","evidence":{"derby":true},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":13.5}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pedro Emanuel has 26 matches in charge at Vasco da Gama, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pedro Emanuel","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":170,"ppm":1.69,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Leonardo Jardim has 42 matches in charge at Flamengo, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Leonardo Jardim","matches_in_charge":42,"tenure_days":210,"ppm":2.19,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.1,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vasco da Gama come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.0625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Flamengo come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.056,"defence":0.056,"effective_matches":16.8,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":0.295,"defence":0.251,"effective_matches":18,"shrunk":0.31}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Flamengo work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53.8,"shots":16.2,"xg_per_shot":0.088,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.345,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":58.8,"shots":15.7,"xg_per_shot":0.113,"corners":7.9,"corners_per_shot":0.505,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.19},"possession_gap":-5},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vasco da Gama are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Flamengo are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"308 yellow cards in this referee's last 57 games, where 268 would be usual in this league, and 10 reds.","evidence":{"matches":57,"yellows_per_match":5.4,"reds_per_match":0.175,"league_yellows_per_match":4.71,"league_reds_per_match":0.277,"yellow_ratio":1.15,"red_ratio":0.63},"strength":0.133,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":3.3}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 2 km for Flamengo.","evidence":{"travel_km":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.1,"temperature_c":22,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3283225932871904},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Flamengo should dominate possession in this local derby to stay in the title race. While Vasco often craft superior opportunities in four of their previous five home fixtures, their form is dipping. Their latest four outings are their worst for both creating and conceding. Flamengo usually keep the ball, which happened in six of their last eight games, and they transform that hold into scoring threats. Both sides have won three of their last six, but Vasco's top scorer is a major doubt. Losing those seven goals and five assists means their goal threat vanishes. Flamengo also lose their main creator to suspension. Success comes down to Vasco's sudden defensive decline.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6190,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":7323,"event_date":"2026-10-29T23:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":164,"home_team":"Vasco da Gama","away_team_id":160,"away_team":"Flamengo","league_id":9,"league_name":"Brasileirão Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":51.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5127,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":7323,"event_date":"2026-10-29T23:00:00Z","home_team":"Vasco da Gama","away_team":"Flamengo","polymarket_event_id":"1166790","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":[{"price":0,"player":"Alan Saldivia"},{"price":0,"player":"Alan Lescano"},{"price":0,"player":"Andrés Gómez"},{"price":0,"player":"Robert Renan"},{"price":0,"player":"Lucas Piton"},{"price":0,"player":"Facundo Colidio"},{"price":0,"player":"David"},{"price":0,"player":"José Luis Rodríguez"},{"price":0,"player":"Jair"},{"price":0,"player":"Thiago Mendes"},{"price":0,"player":"Gabriel Taliari"},{"price":0,"player":"Yago Pikachu"},{"price":0,"player":"Zé Ivaldo"},{"price":0,"player":"Marcelinho"},{"price":0,"player":"Patrick Bezerra"},{"price":0,"player":"Zé Ricardo"},{"price":0,"player":"Marlon"},{"price":0,"player":"Eduardo Melo"},{"price":0,"player":"Marllon"},{"price":0,"player":"Zé Welison"}],"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-29T08:57:15Z"}},"computed_at":1793281271,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#c0271e"},"venue":{"name":"Estádio São Januário","city":"Rio de Janeiro","capacity":21880},"pulled":[],"published":[]}