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level.","evidence":{"manager":"Clarence Seedorf","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":450,"ppm":1.75,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rafael Guanaes has 38 matches in charge at Mirassol, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Rafael Guanaes","matches_in_charge":38,"tenure_days":213,"ppm":1.39,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Corinthians come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.0625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mirassol come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.145833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.074,"defence":-0.01,"effective_matches":17.4,"shrunk":0.31},"away":{"attack":-0.013,"defence":-0.021,"effective_matches":17.7,"shrunk":0.31}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54.4,"shots":13.7,"xg_per_shot":0.086,"corners":6,"corners_per_shot":0.439,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.26},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.9,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.089,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.352,"finishing_vs_xg":0.04},"possession_gap":6.5},"strength":0.26,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Corinthians have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.26,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mirassol are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.04,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"167 yellow cards in this referee's last 45 games, where 212 would be usual in this league, and 12 reds.","evidence":{"matches":45,"yellows_per_match":3.71,"reds_per_match":0.267,"league_yellows_per_match":4.71,"league_reds_per_match":0.277,"yellow_ratio":0.79,"red_ratio":0.96},"strength":0.19,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-4.8}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 427 km for Mirassol.","evidence":{"travel_km":427},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":13.6,"temperature_c":18,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3283225932871904},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Corinthians have lost three of their last ten games in which they made the better chances. Their football is better than their results. And they have scored only 9 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 13. The goals are coming. As for the other side, Mirassol have conceded only 9 in their last nine when the chances they allowed would usually cost about 16. Their goalkeeper and their luck have carried them. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6224,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":7316,"event_date":"2026-10-30T23:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":167,"home_team":"Corinthians","away_team_id":151,"away_team":"Mirassol","league_id":9,"league_name":"Brasileirão Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":52.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5212,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":7316,"event_date":"2026-10-30T23:00:00Z","home_team":"Corinthians","away_team":"Mirassol","polymarket_event_id":"1211439","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":748.415412,"volume_1wk":767.497045,"volume_1mo":767.497045,"volume_1yr":767.497045,"open_interest":1179.4124940000002,"liquidity_clob":22364.8115,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.51,"best_ask":0.52,"change_1d":-0.015,"change_1wk":-0.07,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.115,"SC Corinthians Paulista 0 - 0 Mirassol FC":0.08,"SC Corinthians Paulista 0 - 1 Mirassol FC":0.07,"SC Corinthians Paulista 0 - 2 Mirassol FC":0.031,"SC Corinthians Paulista 0 - 3 Mirassol FC":0.0095,"SC Corinthians Paulista 0 - 4 Mirassol FC":0.0145,"SC Corinthians Paulista 0 - 5 Mirassol FC":0.015,"SC Corinthians Paulista 1 - 0 Mirassol FC":0.12,"SC Corinthians Paulista 1 - 1 Mirassol FC":0.13,"SC Corinthians Paulista 1 - 2 Mirassol FC":0.057,"SC Corinthians Paulista 1 - 3 Mirassol FC":0.017,"SC Corinthians Paulista 1 - 4 Mirassol FC":0.0145,"SC Corinthians Paulista 1 - 5 Mirassol FC":0.015,"SC Corinthians Paulista 2 - 0 Mirassol FC":0.095,"SC Corinthians Paulista 2 - 1 Mirassol FC":0.105,"SC Corinthians Paulista 2 - 2 Mirassol FC":0.052,"SC Corinthians Paulista 2 - 3 Mirassol FC":0.0155,"SC Corinthians Paulista 2 - 4 Mirassol FC":0.0145,"SC Corinthians Paulista 2 - 5 Mirassol FC":0.015,"SC Corinthians Paulista 3 - 0 Mirassol FC":0.052,"SC Corinthians Paulista 3 - 1 Mirassol FC":0.05,"SC Corinthians Paulista 3 - 2 Mirassol FC":0.026,"SC Corinthians Paulista 3 - 3 Mirassol FC":0.0085,"SC Corinthians Paulista 3 - 4 Mirassol FC":0.0145,"SC Corinthians Paulista 3 - 5 Mirassol FC":0.125,"SC Corinthians Paulista 4 - 0 Mirassol FC":0.0155,"SC Corinthians Paulista 4 - 1 Mirassol FC":0.0155,"SC Corinthians Paulista 4 - 2 Mirassol FC":0.02,"SC Corinthians Paulista 4 - 3 Mirassol FC":0.0145,"SC Corinthians Paulista 4 - 4 Mirassol FC":0.0345,"SC Corinthians Paulista 4 - 5 Mirassol FC":0.14,"SC Corinthians Paulista 5 - 0 Mirassol FC":0.015,"SC Corinthians Paulista 5 - 1 Mirassol FC":0.015,"SC Corinthians Paulista 5 - 2 Mirassol FC":0.015,"SC Corinthians Paulista 5 - 3 Mirassol FC":0.12,"SC Corinthians Paulista 5 - 4 Mirassol FC":0.14,"SC Corinthians Paulista 5 - 5 Mirassol FC":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-30T04:57:14Z"}},"computed_at":1793356200,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#dce349"},"venue":{"name":"Neo Química Arena","city":"Sao Paulo","capacity":49205},"pulled":[],"published":[]}