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Cruzeiro are safely mid-table, with 5 games remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":5,"home":{"state":"european_chase","position":7,"points":50,"games_left":5,"gap_to_leader":20,"gap_to_safety":16,"gap_to_europe":1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":54,"games_left":5,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":20,"gap_to_europe":-3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.8,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":4.6}]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Local derby. Cards and both-teams-to-score are the reliable reads; total goals are not, since derbies run cagey about as often as they run open.","evidence":{"derby":true},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":13.5}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Eduardo Dominguez has 42 matches in charge at Atlético Mineiro, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Eduardo Dominguez","matches_in_charge":42,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.74,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Artur Jorge has 40 matches in charge at Cruzeiro, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Artur Jorge","matches_in_charge":40,"tenure_days":212,"ppm":1.85,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.979166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.008,"defence":0.052,"effective_matches":17.8,"shrunk":0.31},"away":{"attack":0.161,"defence":0.017,"effective_matches":17.4,"shrunk":0.31}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.5,"shots":13.1,"xg_per_shot":0.095,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.382,"finishing_vs_xg":0.33},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54.3,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.098,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.321,"finishing_vs_xg":0.33},"possession_gap":-4.8},"strength":0.19,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atlético Mineiro have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.33,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.33,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"228 yellow cards in this referee's last 58 games, where 273 would be usual in this league, and 13 reds.","evidence":{"matches":58,"yellows_per_match":3.93,"reds_per_match":0.224,"league_yellows_per_match":4.71,"league_reds_per_match":0.277,"yellow_ratio":0.84,"red_ratio":0.81},"strength":0.148,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-3.7}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 0 km for Cruzeiro.","evidence":{"travel_km":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3.2,"temperature_c":21,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3283225932871904},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"This local derby will be a cagey affair decided by who can actually find the net. Cruzeiro are finding better openings in their last four fixtures. However, they are fragile, allowing opponents at least six shots on target in four of their last six matches. Atlético Mineiro have won three of their last six, but they must now replace the man who leads their charts with eight goals and eight assists. Losing him and their striker with five goals erases their scoring threat. A new face in goal also removes the stability of eleven clean sheets. Both sides have lost their top creators, so a single moment of individual brilliance decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6191,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":7314,"event_date":"2026-10-29T22:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":155,"home_team":"Atlético Mineiro","away_team_id":150,"away_team":"Cruzeiro","league_id":9,"league_name":"Brasileirão Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":37.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3733,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":7314,"event_date":"2026-10-29T22:30:00Z","home_team":"Atlético Mineiro","away_team":"Cruzeiro","polymarket_event_id":"1204906","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":969.566345,"volume_1wk":1001.905055,"volume_1mo":1001.905055,"volume_1yr":1001.905055,"open_interest":1007.2428349999999,"liquidity_clob":19664.881,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.34,"best_ask":0.35,"change_1d":-0.05,"change_1wk":-0.045,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.135,"CA Mineiro 0 - 0 Cruzeiro EC":0.065,"CA Mineiro 0 - 1 Cruzeiro EC":0.085,"CA Mineiro 0 - 2 Cruzeiro EC":0.0595,"CA Mineiro 0 - 3 Cruzeiro EC":0.0295,"CA Mineiro 0 - 4 Cruzeiro EC":0.0145,"CA Mineiro 0 - 5 Cruzeiro EC":0.105,"CA Mineiro 1 - 0 Cruzeiro EC":0.08,"CA Mineiro 1 - 1 Cruzeiro EC":0.13,"CA Mineiro 1 - 2 Cruzeiro EC":0.09,"CA Mineiro 1 - 3 Cruzeiro EC":0.0395,"CA Mineiro 1 - 4 Cruzeiro EC":0.013,"CA Mineiro 1 - 5 Cruzeiro EC":0.015,"CA Mineiro 2 - 0 Cruzeiro EC":0.055,"CA Mineiro 2 - 1 Cruzeiro EC":0.085,"CA Mineiro 2 - 2 Cruzeiro EC":0.065,"CA Mineiro 2 - 3 Cruzeiro EC":0.028,"CA Mineiro 2 - 4 Cruzeiro EC":0.013,"CA Mineiro 2 - 5 Cruzeiro EC":0.045,"CA Mineiro 3 - 0 Cruzeiro EC":0.024,"CA Mineiro 3 - 1 Cruzeiro EC":0.0345,"CA Mineiro 3 - 2 Cruzeiro EC":0.0265,"CA Mineiro 3 - 3 Cruzeiro EC":0.014,"CA Mineiro 3 - 4 Cruzeiro EC":0.014,"CA Mineiro 3 - 5 Cruzeiro EC":0.12,"CA Mineiro 4 - 0 Cruzeiro EC":0.0135,"CA Mineiro 4 - 1 Cruzeiro EC":0.008,"CA Mineiro 4 - 2 Cruzeiro EC":0.0145,"CA Mineiro 4 - 3 Cruzeiro EC":0.0145,"CA Mineiro 4 - 4 Cruzeiro EC":0.0345,"CA Mineiro 4 - 5 Cruzeiro EC":0.139,"CA Mineiro 5 - 0 Cruzeiro EC":0.1235,"CA Mineiro 5 - 1 Cruzeiro EC":0.015,"CA Mineiro 5 - 2 Cruzeiro EC":0.035,"CA Mineiro 5 - 3 Cruzeiro EC":0.11,"CA Mineiro 5 - 4 Cruzeiro EC":0.144,"CA Mineiro 5 - 5 Cruzeiro EC":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-10-29T08:57:15Z"}},"computed_at":1793281270,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#443c3e","away":"#0b408d"},"venue":{"name":"Arena MRV","city":"Belo Horizonte","capacity":44892},"pulled":[],"published":[]}