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remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":6,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":51,"games_left":6,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":19,"gap_to_europe":-1},"away":{"state":"relegation_fight","position":19,"points":26,"games_left":6,"gap_to_leader":41,"gap_to_safety":-6,"gap_to_europe":24},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.5,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.6}]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Artur Jorge has 39 matches in charge at Cruzeiro, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Artur Jorge","matches_in_charge":39,"tenure_days":206,"ppm":1.82,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Thiago Carpini is 5 games into the job at Remo. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Thiago Carpini","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":80,"ppm":0.6,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.166666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Remo come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.020833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.192,"defence":-0.008,"effective_matches":17.1,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":-0.159,"defence":-0.095,"effective_matches":14.4,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro average 9 points more possession than Remo, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Remo work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54,"shots":15.8,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.316,"finishing_vs_xg":0.38},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.8,"shots":14.6,"xg_per_shot":0.065,"corners":6,"corners_per_shot":0.411,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.11},"possession_gap":9.3},"strength":0.37,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.9},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.38,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Remo are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"305 yellow cards in this referee's last 56 games, where 268 would be usual in this league, and 10 reds.","evidence":{"matches":56,"yellows_per_match":5.45,"reds_per_match":0.179,"league_yellows_per_match":4.79,"league_reds_per_match":0.293,"yellow_ratio":1.14,"red_ratio":0.61},"strength":0.122,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":3.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Remo travel 2062 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":2062},"strength":0.252,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.3}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.2,"temperature_c":23,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.29883197932935085},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5548,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":7306,"event_date":"2026-10-23T23:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":150,"home_team":"Cruzeiro","away_team_id":372,"away_team":"Remo","league_id":9,"league_name":"Brasileirão Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":68.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6846,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":7306,"event_date":"2026-10-23T23:00:00Z","home_team":"Cruzeiro","away_team":"Remo","polymarket_event_id":"1170590","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":154.790787,"volume_1wk":211.790787,"volume_1mo":211.790787,"volume_1yr":211.790787,"open_interest":1297.427273,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-20T18:57:25Z"}},"computed_at":1792767182,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Cruzeiro will dominate this game as their upward momentum clashes with a crumbling Remo side. While the hosts have trended up by creating much better opportunities recently, they remain vulnerable at the back after being opened up by constant efforts on target. Remo are in the bottom three and have been out-created in most of their recent matches, including every single one of their last four trips away from home. Losing key playmakers in midfield and their top scorers up front means the visitors will lack the bite needed to punish those defensive gaps. Cruzeiro will control the tempo and force the issue, with the outcome decided by the visitors' failure to stop the tide.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Remo are without 8 players, and Gabriel Taliari and Yago Pikachu are real losses.","evidence":{"count":8,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.219,"combined_importance":0.395,"players":[{"player":"Gabriel Taliari","role":"ATT","reason":"yellow_card_accumulation_suspension","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.132,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Yago Pikachu","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.094,"importance":0.129,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Duplexe Tchamba","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.082,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8,"tags":["defensive_rock"]},{"player":"Mayk","role":"DEF","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.052,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Gabriel Poveda","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Jáderson","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"João Lucas","role":"DEF","reason":"Meniscus Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Matheus Felipe","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.988,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":1.1}]},{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.068,"combined_importance":0.079,"players":[{"player":"João Marcelo","role":"DEF","reason":"yellow_card_accumulation_suspension","goal_share":0.045,"importance":0.049,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Luis Sinisterra","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.023,"importance":0.03,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Gabriel Pec","role":"MID","reason":"Broken Leg","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12}]},"strength":0.198,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro average 9 points more possession than Remo, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Remo work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54,"shots":15.8,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.316,"finishing_vs_xg":0.38},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.8,"shots":14.6,"xg_per_shot":0.065,"corners":6,"corners_per_shot":0.411,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.11},"possession_gap":9.3},"strength":0.37,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.9},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Remo travel 2062 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":2062},"strength":0.252,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.3}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.709,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.291,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cruzeiro are safely mid-table; Remo are fighting relegation, with 6 games remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":6,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":51,"games_left":6,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":19,"gap_to_europe":-1},"away":{"state":"relegation_fight","position":19,"points":26,"games_left":6,"gap_to_leader":41,"gap_to_safety":-6,"gap_to_europe":24},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.5,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.6}]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#0b408d","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Governador Magalhães Pinto","city":"Belo Horizonte","capacity":61927},"pulled":[],"published":[]}