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remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":8,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":34,"games_left":8,"gap_to_leader":26,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":12},"away":{"state":"relegation_fight","position":19,"points":24,"games_left":8,"gap_to_leader":36,"gap_to_safety":-7,"gap_to_europe":22},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.417,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.2}]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pedro Emanuel has 21 matches in charge at Vasco da Gama, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pedro 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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Thiago Carpini","matches_in_charge":3,"tenure_days":67,"ppm":0.33,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":0.33,"delta":null}},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.1}]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.099,"defence":0.036,"effective_matches":16.1,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":-0.133,"defence":-0.12,"effective_matches":13.8,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.3,"shots":16.7,"xg_per_shot":0.111,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.35,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":43.9,"shots":14.1,"xg_per_shot":0.066,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.355,"finishing_vs_xg":0.07},"possession_gap":4.4},"strength":0.177,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30435060420963267},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: close","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4432,"created_at":"2026-10-04T02:15:22Z","event":{"id":7293,"event_date":"2026-10-10T21:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":164,"home_team":"Vasco da Gama","away_team_id":372,"away_team":"Remo","league_id":9,"league_name":"Brasileirão Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":70.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7085,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":7293,"event_date":"2026-10-10T21:00:00Z","home_team":"Vasco da Gama","away_team":"Remo","polymarket_event_id":"1097700","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T18:57:08Z"}},"computed_at":1791473301,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":null},"venue":{"name":"Estádio São Januário","city":"Rio de Janeiro","capacity":21880},"pulled":[],"published":[]}