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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Palmeiras have scored 6 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.5,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bahia have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.26,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"102 yellow cards in this referee's last 21 games, where 101 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds. — though 21 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":21,"yellows_per_match":4.86,"reds_per_match":0.095,"league_yellows_per_match":4.8,"league_reds_per_match":0.283,"yellow_ratio":1.01,"red_ratio":0.34,"sample":21,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bahia travel 1467 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":1467},"strength":0.133,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.2}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":15.3,"temperature_c":18,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.30435060420963267},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Palmeiras will edge this one despite a patchy run of results. Underneath the surface, their football is superior because they dictate play and fashion the better openings in the vast majority of their outings, creating them in eight of their last ten matches while Bahia manage that feat in seven. Yet Palmeiras lag behind where they ought to be since they fail to win three of those ten despite dominating the play, largely because their finishing underperforms by about six goals compared to what those chances usually bring. At the back, a reliable defence keeps five clean sheets in six, while Bahia arrive with four wins from six. The hosts miss a forward who has netted two times this term, though that absence matters less than their ruthless home form. Ultimately, the relentless creation of chances will finally translate into goals, and that weight of pressure decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4334,"created_at":"2026-10-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":7279,"event_date":"2026-10-09T00:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":162,"home_team":"Palmeiras","away_team_id":166,"away_team":"Bahia","league_id":9,"league_name":"Brasileirão Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":58.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5851,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":7279,"event_date":"2026-10-09T00:30:00Z","home_team":"Palmeiras","away_team":"Bahia","polymarket_event_id":"1085307","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":20,"volume_1wk":20,"volume_1mo":20,"volume_1yr":20,"open_interest":972.781787,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.13,"SE Palmeiras 0 - 0 EC Bahia":0.05,"SE Palmeiras 0 - 1 EC Bahia":0.05,"SE Palmeiras 0 - 2 EC Bahia":0.1665,"SE Palmeiras 0 - 3 EC Bahia":0.0495,"SE Palmeiras 0 - 4 EC Bahia":0.152,"SE Palmeiras 0 - 5 EC Bahia":0.165,"SE Palmeiras 1 - 0 EC Bahia":0.1,"SE Palmeiras 1 - 1 EC Bahia":0.1,"SE Palmeiras 1 - 2 EC Bahia":0.0465,"SE Palmeiras 1 - 3 EC Bahia":0.0545,"SE Palmeiras 1 - 4 EC Bahia":0.191,"SE Palmeiras 1 - 5 EC Bahia":0.18,"SE Palmeiras 2 - 0 EC Bahia":0.1,"SE Palmeiras 2 - 1 EC Bahia":0.1,"SE Palmeiras 2 - 2 EC Bahia":0.05,"SE Palmeiras 2 - 3 EC Bahia":0.055,"SE Palmeiras 2 - 4 EC Bahia":0.0495,"SE Palmeiras 2 - 5 EC Bahia":0.045,"SE Palmeiras 3 - 0 EC Bahia":0.07,"SE Palmeiras 3 - 1 EC Bahia":0.07,"SE Palmeiras 3 - 2 EC Bahia":0.0325,"SE Palmeiras 3 - 3 EC Bahia":0.0495,"SE Palmeiras 3 - 4 EC Bahia":0.1555,"SE Palmeiras 3 - 5 EC Bahia":0.175,"SE Palmeiras 4 - 0 EC Bahia":0.0335,"SE Palmeiras 4 - 1 EC Bahia":0.031,"SE Palmeiras 4 - 2 EC Bahia":0.1715,"SE Palmeiras 4 - 3 EC Bahia":0.16,"SE Palmeiras 4 - 4 EC Bahia":0.0345,"SE Palmeiras 4 - 5 EC Bahia":0.155,"SE Palmeiras 5 - 0 EC Bahia":0.16,"SE Palmeiras 5 - 1 EC Bahia":0.13,"SE Palmeiras 5 - 2 EC Bahia":0.135,"SE Palmeiras 5 - 3 EC Bahia":0.13,"SE Palmeiras 5 - 4 EC Bahia":0.14,"SE Palmeiras 5 - 5 EC Bahia":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-10-04T18:57:11Z"}},"computed_at":1791473623,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#0b3882"},"venue":{"name":"Nubank Parque","city":"Sao Paulo","capacity":43713},"pulled":[{"pulled_at":1791462261,"reason":"With the latest team news and prices, it’s no longer one we’d back.","after_result":null,"after_home":null,"after_away":null}],"published":[]}