{"id":643183,"league_id":41,"league":"Copa del Rey","kickoff":1793728800,"home":"CD Anaitasuna FT","away":"Deportivo Alavés","home_id":6158,"away_id":45,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"cancelled","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.207,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.64,1.77],"read":null,"pass":null,"flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"Deportivo Alavés have taken 0.33 points a game from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.0, and 0.33 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.6424457855722268,"lambda_away":1.769372134655895,"corner_rate":10.46,"card_rate":0.28,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.12,"home":{"formation":"3-4-3","players":[{"id":101674,"name":"Mikel Ruiz Azkue","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.417},{"id":101672,"name":"Markel Eskurtza Umerez","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.394},{"id":101669,"name":"Julen Odriozola Alberdi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.36},{"id":101668,"name":"Xabier Azcoitia Mendez","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.321},{"id":101671,"name":"Aitor Barbarin De la Granja","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.314},{"id":101670,"name":"Josu Zubizarreta Orue","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.012},{"id":101658,"name":"Xabier Soraluce Arzalluz","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.374},{"id":101663,"name":"Mikel Pastrian Soraluce","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.349},{"id":101651,"name":"Mikel Muguruza Bermudez","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.012},{"id":212455,"name":"Ander Pastrian","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":218403,"name":"Aritz Albizuri","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":101656,"name":"Unai Arambarri Murua","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.223},{"id":101662,"name":"Mikel Aramendi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.217},{"id":101667,"name":"Jon Izagirre","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.204},{"id":101660,"name":"Julen Aramendi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.158},{"id":101661,"name":"Jon Letamendia Juaristi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.143},{"id":101673,"name":"Ander Rementeria Basurco","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.012},{"id":101659,"name":"Lur Bereziartua Nazabal","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.012}],"confidence":0.12},"away":{"formation":"5-3-2","players":[{"id":2343,"name":"Antonio Sivera","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.862},{"id":13547,"name":"Ville Koski","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.807},{"id":2345,"name":"Nahuel Tenaglia","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.803},{"id":2615,"name":"Nicolás Valentini","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.486},{"id":2352,"name":"Abderrahman Rebbach","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.71},{"id":8845,"name":"Ángel Pérez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.747},{"id":2350,"name":"Pablo Ibáñez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.74},{"id":2344,"name":"Jonny Otto","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.716},{"id":2348,"name":"Antonio Blanco","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.715},{"id":2353,"name":"Lucas Boyé","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.851},{"id":2364,"name":"Mariano Díaz","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.501},{"id":2358,"name":"Toni Martínez","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.476},{"id":2351,"name":"Denis Suárez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.446},{"id":2356,"name":"Ander Guevara","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.375},{"id":36667,"name":"Hugo Novoa","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.355},{"id":2354,"name":"Carles Aleñá","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.346},{"id":2363,"name":"Youssef Enriquez","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.316},{"id":2362,"name":"Carlos Benavídez","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.288},{"id":5139,"name":"Aitor Mañas","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.286},{"id":5636,"name":"Xanet Olaiz","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.214},{"id":2996,"name":"Miguel Rodríguez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.147},{"id":29087,"name":"Adrián Rodríguez","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":31393,"name":"Selu Diallo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04}],"confidence":0.886},"unavailable":[{"id":4670,"name":"Facundo Garcés","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":41286,"name":"Mikel Rodriguez","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":101674,"name":"Mikel Ruiz Azkue","side":"home"},{"id":101672,"name":"Markel Eskurtza Umerez","side":"home"},{"id":101669,"name":"Julen Odriozola Alberdi","side":"home"},{"id":101668,"name":"Xabier Azcoitia Mendez","side":"home"},{"id":101671,"name":"Aitor Barbarin De la Granja","side":"home"},{"id":101670,"name":"Josu Zubizarreta Orue","side":"home"},{"id":101658,"name":"Xabier Soraluce Arzalluz","side":"home"},{"id":101663,"name":"Mikel Pastrian Soraluce","side":"home"},{"id":101651,"name":"Mikel Muguruza Bermudez","side":"home"},{"id":212455,"name":"Ander Pastrian","side":"home"},{"id":218403,"name":"Aritz Albizuri","side":"home"},{"id":101656,"name":"Unai Arambarri Murua","side":"home"},{"id":101662,"name":"Mikel Aramendi","side":"home"},{"id":101667,"name":"Jon Izagirre","side":"home"},{"id":101660,"name":"Julen Aramendi","side":"home"},{"id":101661,"name":"Jon Letamendia Juaristi","side":"home"},{"id":101673,"name":"Ander Rementeria Basurco","side":"home"},{"id":101659,"name":"Lur Bereziartua Nazabal","side":"home"},{"id":101677,"name":"Ander Pastrian Soraluza","side":"home"},{"id":101681,"name":"Galder Guembe Bidezabal","side":"home"},{"id":101678,"name":"Julen Olaizola Ucin","side":"home"},{"id":218413,"name":"Julen Larramendi","side":"home"},{"id":218411,"name":"Jakes Díaz","side":"home"},{"id":218410,"name":"Ander Bizkarguenaga","side":"home"},{"id":218412,"name":"John Prestine","side":"home"},{"id":218414,"name":"Urtzi Segurola","side":"home"},{"id":218404,"name":"Hicham Hazin","side":"home"},{"id":101653,"name":"Markel Ilzarbe García","side":"home"},{"id":101680,"name":"Oihan Etxaniz Uzin","side":"home"},{"id":218416,"name":"Josue Goenaga","side":"home"},{"id":218415,"name":"Alain Sudupe","side":"home"},{"id":101676,"name":"Ander Etxaniz","side":"home"},{"id":212457,"name":"Lander de Luzuria","side":"home"},{"id":101679,"name":"Beñat Garmendia Olabarria","side":"home"},{"id":218408,"name":"Luis Juaristi","side":"home"},{"id":218405,"name":"Aritz Clement","side":"home"},{"id":218409,"name":"Mikel Zubizarreta","side":"home"},{"id":101657,"name":"Unai Perez Alberdi","side":"home"},{"id":101664,"name":"Aimar Guembe","side":"home"},{"id":218406,"name":"Ekai Sudupe","side":"home"},{"id":101665,"name":"Jokin Errazu","side":"home"},{"id":218407,"name":"Eritz Dávila","side":"home"},{"id":101666,"name":"Gorka Larrañaga","side":"home"},{"id":212456,"name":"Carlos Juaristi","side":"home"},{"id":2343,"name":"Antonio Sivera","side":"away"},{"id":13547,"name":"Ville Koski","side":"away"},{"id":2345,"name":"Nahuel Tenaglia","side":"away"},{"id":2615,"name":"Nicolás Valentini","side":"away"},{"id":2352,"name":"Abderrahman Rebbach","side":"away"},{"id":8845,"name":"Ángel Pérez","side":"away"},{"id":2350,"name":"Pablo Ibáñez","side":"away"},{"id":2344,"name":"Jonny Otto","side":"away"},{"id":2348,"name":"Antonio Blanco","side":"away"},{"id":2353,"name":"Lucas Boyé","side":"away"},{"id":2364,"name":"Mariano Díaz","side":"away"},{"id":2358,"name":"Toni Martínez","side":"away"},{"id":2351,"name":"Denis Suárez","side":"away"},{"id":2356,"name":"Ander Guevara","side":"away"},{"id":36667,"name":"Hugo Novoa","side":"away"},{"id":2354,"name":"Carles Aleñá","side":"away"},{"id":2363,"name":"Youssef Enriquez","side":"away"},{"id":2362,"name":"Carlos Benavídez","side":"away"},{"id":5139,"name":"Aitor Mañas","side":"away"},{"id":5636,"name":"Xanet Olaiz","side":"away"},{"id":2996,"name":"Miguel Rodríguez","side":"away"},{"id":29087,"name":"Adrián Rodríguez","side":"away"},{"id":31393,"name":"Selu Diallo","side":"away"},{"id":4670,"name":"Facundo Garcés","side":"away"},{"id":3924,"name":"Grégoire Swiderski","side":"away"},{"id":4633,"name":"Ruben Montero","side":"away"},{"id":41286,"name":"Mikel Rodriguez","side":"away"},{"id":2365,"name":"Izei Hernandez","side":"away"},{"id":4532,"name":"Tomás Mendes","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":101651,"name":"Mikel Muguruza Bermudez","side":"home","team":"CD Anaitasuna FT","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":212455,"name":"Ander Pastrian","side":"home","team":"CD Anaitasuna FT","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":4670,"name":"Facundo Garcés","side":"away","team":"Deportivo Alavés","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":41286,"name":"Mikel Rodriguez","side":"away","team":"Deportivo Alavés","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":3,"starts":1,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Getafe","kickoff":1786815000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.029,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2353,"name":"Lucas Boyé","side":"away","team":"Deportivo Alavés","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":10,"goals":5,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Osasuna","kickoff":1788712200,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"5-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.248,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":164,"country":0}},{"id":2364,"name":"Mariano Díaz","side":"away","team":"Deportivo Alavés","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":4,"goals":4,"assists":4,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Getafe","kickoff":1786815000,"goals":1,"assists":2,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.337,"country":{"team":"Dominican Republic","apps":3,"goals":2,"assists":2,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":82,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":6158,"away":45},"split":{"home":null,"away":null},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":4467,"name":"Jon Lorentxo Barbado Iribarren","vs":null},"away":{"id":441,"name":"Quique Sánchez Flores","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"2353":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Granada","fee":5800000,"at":1755820800}},"2364":{"caps":5,"goals":2,"country":"Dominican Republic","signed":null},"4670":{"caps":1,"goals":0,"country":"Malaysia","signed":null},"41286":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Real Sociedad B","fee":2000000,"at":1784160000}}}},"notable":[{"id":2672,"name":"Raúl García de Haro","goals":3,"rank":1},{"id":30244,"name":"Alberto Dadie","goals":2,"rank":2},{"id":915,"name":"Alemão","goals":2,"rank":3},{"id":32492,"name":"Alvaro Garcia","goals":2,"rank":4},{"id":31471,"name":"Asier Villalibre","goals":2,"rank":5},{"id":122273,"name":"Aythami Perera","goals":2,"rank":6},{"id":33447,"name":"Chatún","goals":2,"rank":7},{"id":28406,"name":"Chupete","goals":2,"rank":8},{"id":31559,"name":"Diego Diaz","goals":2,"rank":9},{"id":9493,"name":"Ezequiel Ponce","goals":2,"rank":10},{"id":114487,"name":"Gorka Santamaría","goals":2,"rank":11},{"id":7199,"name":"Jonathan Asp Jensen","goals":2,"rank":12},{"id":32378,"name":"Khalid Noureddine","goals":2,"rank":13},{"id":28223,"name":"Kirian Rodríguez","goals":2,"rank":14},{"id":1755,"name":"Mikel Goti","goals":2,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Round 1","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":null,"form":{"home":{"matches":2},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.33,"record":"0-2-4","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"winless 6","sequence":"LDLLDL","venue_ppg":0.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Anaitasuna FT report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Alavés are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.029,"players":[{"player":"Mikel Rodriguez","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.029,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Facundo Garcés","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.12,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.88,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"Too few recent results on record for CD Anaitasuna FT to read their form.","evidence":{"matches":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jon Lorentxo Barbado Iribarren is 2 games into the job at CD Anaitasuna FT. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Jon Lorentxo Barbado Iribarren","matches_in_charge":2,"tenure_days":39,"ppm":3,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.467,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":4.2}]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Quique Sánchez Flores has 24 matches in charge at Deportivo Alavés, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Quique Sánchez Flores","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":213,"ppm":1.33,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Anaitasuna FT come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.6719743206207852 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.29,"defence":0.045,"effective_matches":1.6,"shrunk":0.83},"away":{"attack":0.063,"defence":0.043,"effective_matches":0.7,"shrunk":0.92},"sample":0.6719743206207852,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.","evidence":{"home_matches":2,"away_matches":12},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for CD Anaitasuna FT's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Alavés are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":-0.38271475731625476},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was home +1.5 on the Asian line at 4.90, where the model confidence of 21% is below the threshold.","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6897,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":643183,"event_date":"2026-11-03T18:00:00Z","status":"postponed","home_team_id":6158,"home_team":"CD Anaitasuna FT","away_team_id":45,"away_team":"Deportivo Alavés","league_id":41,"league_name":"Copa del Rey"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":91.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.9193,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793728394,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ec1414","away":"#0d379a"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}