{"id":607126,"league_id":103,"league":"Serie C, Girone B","kickoff":1792780200,"home":"Ostiamare","away":"Vado","home_id":4763,"away_id":5052,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.531,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.22,1.16],"read":{"text":"Ostiamare to edge it","side":"home"},"pass":"No call on Ostiamare against Vado. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","note":"Since opening, AWAY has drifted 18.4% since the market opened."}],"lambda_home":1.216374112212165,"lambda_away":1.1566623097736803,"corner_rate":10.99,"card_rate":0.223,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.755,"home":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":88105,"name":"Filippo Lapo Vertua","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.866},{"id":88096,"name":"Antonio Castaldo","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.601},{"id":39467,"name":"Riccardo Brosco","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.864},{"id":88102,"name":"Danilo Piroli","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.848},{"id":88099,"name":"Pietro Giordani","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.766},{"id":88089,"name":"Danilo Greco","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.588},{"id":79205,"name":"Federico Casolari","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.702},{"id":53407,"name":"Filippo Carbone","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.688},{"id":93607,"name":"Vittorio Parigini","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.303},{"id":27060,"name":"Frederik Tosku","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.655},{"id":39290,"name":"Riccardo Tonin","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.642},{"id":93608,"name":"Filippo D'Andrea","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.468},{"id":88093,"name":"Davide Buono","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.457},{"id":88103,"name":"Matteo Vagnoni","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.378},{"id":88090,"name":"Marco Spinosa","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.361},{"id":88082,"name":"Ismaila Badje","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.36},{"id":88097,"name":"Emanuele Tesauro","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":88087,"name":"Godfred Donsah","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.27},{"id":39207,"name":"Matteo Cotali","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.236},{"id":88092,"name":"Francesco Galastri","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.221},{"id":217003,"name":"Niccolò Felici","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.211},{"id":88091,"name":"Nicolò Felici","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.206},{"id":27053,"name":"Ibrahima Papa Wade","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.19}],"confidence":0.845},"away":{"formation":"3-5-2","players":[{"id":93590,"name":"Andrea Bellocci","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.723},{"id":93593,"name":"Mirko Saltarelli","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.818},{"id":163065,"name":"Luca Piana","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.739},{"id":93592,"name":"Federico Gulinelli","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.573},{"id":93598,"name":"Diego Vita","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.714},{"id":154145,"name":"Matteo Ferro","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.732},{"id":93602,"name":"Mirko Lazzarini","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.692},{"id":29678,"name":"Zaccaria Hamlili","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.631},{"id":64456,"name":"Denis Hergheligiu","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.565},{"id":79209,"name":"Andrea Ghezzi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.388},{"id":11912,"name":"Iacopo Cernigoi","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.375},{"id":63474,"name":"Filippo Saiani","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.477},{"id":93594,"name":"Matteo De Rinaldis","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.472},{"id":39397,"name":"Filippo Rosa","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.402},{"id":93595,"name":"Alessandro Di Munno","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.398},{"id":93599,"name":"Andrea Sala","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.387},{"id":154147,"name":"Maiko Candiano","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.387},{"id":93596,"name":"Giorgio Lionetti","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.363},{"id":148758,"name":"Cristian Carlini","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.357},{"id":93604,"name":"Diego Tampieri","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.325},{"id":93597,"name":"Jacopo Simonetta","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.322},{"id":64403,"name":"Lorenzo Lischetti","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.27},{"id":93591,"name":"Luca Dellepiane","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.263}],"confidence":0.755},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":88105,"name":"Filippo Lapo Vertua","side":"home"},{"id":88096,"name":"Antonio Castaldo","side":"home"},{"id":39467,"name":"Riccardo Brosco","side":"home"},{"id":88102,"name":"Danilo Piroli","side":"home"},{"id":88099,"name":"Pietro Giordani","side":"home"},{"id":88089,"name":"Danilo Greco","side":"home"},{"id":79205,"name":"Federico Casolari","side":"home"},{"id":53407,"name":"Filippo Carbone","side":"home"},{"id":93607,"name":"Vittorio Parigini","side":"home"},{"id":27060,"name":"Frederik Tosku","side":"home"},{"id":39290,"name":"Riccardo Tonin","side":"home"},{"id":93608,"name":"Filippo D'Andrea","side":"home"},{"id":88093,"name":"Davide Buono","side":"home"},{"id":88103,"name":"Matteo Vagnoni","side":"home"},{"id":88090,"name":"Marco Spinosa","side":"home"},{"id":88082,"name":"Ismaila Badje","side":"home"},{"id":88097,"name":"Emanuele Tesauro","side":"home"},{"id":88087,"name":"Godfred Donsah","side":"home"},{"id":39207,"name":"Matteo Cotali","side":"home"},{"id":88092,"name":"Francesco Galastri","side":"home"},{"id":217003,"name":"Niccolò Felici","side":"home"},{"id":88091,"name":"Nicolò Felici","side":"home"},{"id":27053,"name":"Ibrahima Papa Wade","side":"home"},{"id":217004,"name":"Emanuele Mercadante","side":"home"},{"id":88095,"name":"Marco Orfano","side":"home"},{"id":209416,"name":"Flavio Moi","side":"home"},{"id":88098,"name":"Anej Korosa","side":"home"},{"id":88081,"name":"Flavio Ferrari","side":"home"},{"id":186107,"name":"Alessio Fabiani","side":"home"},{"id":39551,"name":"Alessandro Morlupo","side":"home"},{"id":93590,"name":"Andrea Bellocci","side":"away"},{"id":93593,"name":"Mirko Saltarelli","side":"away"},{"id":163065,"name":"Luca Piana","side":"away"},{"id":93592,"name":"Federico Gulinelli","side":"away"},{"id":93598,"name":"Diego Vita","side":"away"},{"id":154145,"name":"Matteo Ferro","side":"away"},{"id":93602,"name":"Mirko Lazzarini","side":"away"},{"id":29678,"name":"Zaccaria Hamlili","side":"away"},{"id":64456,"name":"Denis Hergheligiu","side":"away"},{"id":79209,"name":"Andrea Ghezzi","side":"away"},{"id":11912,"name":"Iacopo Cernigoi","side":"away"},{"id":63474,"name":"Filippo Saiani","side":"away"},{"id":93594,"name":"Matteo De Rinaldis","side":"away"},{"id":39397,"name":"Filippo Rosa","side":"away"},{"id":93595,"name":"Alessandro Di Munno","side":"away"},{"id":93599,"name":"Andrea Sala","side":"away"},{"id":154147,"name":"Maiko Candiano","side":"away"},{"id":93596,"name":"Giorgio Lionetti","side":"away"},{"id":148758,"name":"Cristian Carlini","side":"away"},{"id":93604,"name":"Diego Tampieri","side":"away"},{"id":93597,"name":"Jacopo Simonetta","side":"away"},{"id":64403,"name":"Lorenzo Lischetti","side":"away"},{"id":93591,"name":"Luca Dellepiane","side":"away"},{"id":217037,"name":"Matteo Viti","side":"away"},{"id":217038,"name":"Mirko Zhao","side":"away"},{"id":154153,"name":"Michael Ndianefo","side":"away"},{"id":29280,"name":"Lorenzo Malanca","side":"away"},{"id":154156,"name":"Nicolò Agostino","side":"away"},{"id":154146,"name":"Leroy Cecchinato","side":"away"},{"id":93600,"name":"Simone Calvani","side":"away"},{"id":154151,"name":"Andrea Bussaglia","side":"away"},{"id":27183,"name":"Kevin Bruno","side":"away"},{"id":209705,"name":"Enrico Saracco","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":53407,"name":"Filippo Carbone","side":"home","team":"Ostiamare","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Vis Pesaro","kickoff":1788634800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.195,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":156,"country":0}},{"id":39290,"name":"Riccardo Tonin","side":"home","team":"Ostiamare","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Vis Pesaro","kickoff":1788634800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.106,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":117,"country":0}},{"id":93598,"name":"Diego Vita","side":"away","team":"Vado","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":8,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Sambenedettese","kickoff":1792240200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.183,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":177,"country":0}},{"id":154145,"name":"Matteo Ferro","side":"away","team":"Vado","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":8,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"US Livorno 1915","kickoff":1789585200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.156,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":4763,"away":5052},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":5},"below":{"w":2,"d":1,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":3},"below":{"w":2,"d":2,"l":1}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":2824,"name":"David D'Antoni","vs":null},"away":{"id":4161,"name":"Giancarlo Riolfo","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":151101,"name":"Leon Šipoš","goals":8,"rank":1},{"id":124602,"name":"Lorenzo Di Stefano","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":62988,"name":"Matteo Stoppa","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":79195,"name":"Simone Rabbi","goals":6,"rank":4},{"id":85059,"name":"Simone Mazzocchi","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":63735,"name":"Valentino Coveri","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":146101,"name":"Elia Petrelli","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":86059,"name":"Francesco Nicastro","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":218792,"name":"Leonardo Bellini","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":124346,"name":"Luigi Canotto","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":39454,"name":"Manolo Portanova","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":150313,"name":"Alessandro Tozzuolo","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":132360,"name":"Eetu Vertainen","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":63846,"name":"Francesco Fabri","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":39477,"name":"Giacomo Parigi","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Group B · Matchday 11","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":4763,"position":16,"played":10,"points":9,"goal_diff":-3,"team_name":"Ostiamare","won":2,"drawn":3,"lost":5,"goals_for":9,"goals_against":12,"group":"Group B"},"away":{"team_id":5052,"position":11,"played":10,"points":12,"goal_diff":0,"team_name":"Vado","won":3,"drawn":3,"lost":4,"goals_for":10,"goals_against":10,"group":"Group B"},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1,"record":"1-3-2","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":0.83,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"winless 4","sequence":"LWDDDL","venue_ppg":0.67},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":1.17,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"unbeaten 4","sequence":"LLDWWD","venue_ppg":1.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ostiamare report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vado report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.755,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.245,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":9,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":19,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":7},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":12,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"David D'Antoni is 11 games into the job at Ostiamare, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"David D'Antoni","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":80,"ppm":0.82,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Giancarlo Riolfo is 12 games into the job at Vado, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Giancarlo Riolfo","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":80,"ppm":1.25,"appointment_effect":null},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ostiamare come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.125,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vado come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.25,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.061,"defence":-0.073,"effective_matches":8.2,"shrunk":0.5},"away":{"attack":-0.05,"defence":-0.011,"effective_matches":8.1,"shrunk":0.5}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.5,"shots":12.7,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.429,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.64},"away":{"matches":11,"possession":49.5,"shots":10.6,"xg_per_shot":0.133,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.472,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.41},"possession_gap":-3.9},"strength":0.156,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ostiamare have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.64,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vado have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 11 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.41,"matches":11},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"3 yellow cards in this referee's last 2 games, where 8 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 2 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":2,"yellows_per_match":1.5,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":3.99,"league_reds_per_match":0.242,"yellow_ratio":0.38,"red_ratio":0,"sample":2,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1526279979295156},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5562,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":607126,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4763,"home_team":"Ostiamare","away_team_id":5052,"away_team":"Vado","league_id":103,"league_name":"Serie C, Girone B"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":46.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4608,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792734441,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#4d0a76","away":"#d11125"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}