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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.682,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.318,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":23,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":51,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":22,"gap_to_europe":0},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":19,"points":28,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":38,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":23},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alberto Gamero has 17 matches in charge at Millonarios, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Alberto Gamero","matches_in_charge":17,"tenure_days":240,"ppm":1.53,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Julio Méndez is 3 games into the job at Jaguares de Córdoba. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Julio Méndez","matches_in_charge":3,"tenure_days":17,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.1}]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.135,"defence":0.17,"effective_matches":16.2,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":-0.108,"defence":-0.256,"effective_matches":13.9,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios average 8 points more possession than Jaguares de Córdoba, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.4,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.346,"finishing_vs_xg":0.23},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.3,"shots":10.7,"xg_per_shot":0.067,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.359,"finishing_vs_xg":0.45},"possession_gap":8.1},"strength":0.325,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jaguares de Córdoba have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.45,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.2,"temperature_c":16,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3226737920074502},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: no-prices","preview":"Jaguares de Córdoba are in trouble, and not only on results. Jaguares de Córdoba have been out-created in eight of their last ten games. And they have faced six or more efforts on target in five of their last six games. They are getting opened up. On top of that, they have scored 14 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 7. That finishing is running hot. Until Jaguares de Córdoba sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5390,"created_at":"2026-10-14T02:15:27Z","event":{"id":606232,"event_date":"2026-10-19T23:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":736,"home_team":"Millonarios","away_team_id":4785,"away_team":"Jaguares de Córdoba","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":74.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7448,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792369124,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#2b4890","away":"#197a0a"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin","city":"Bogota","capacity":36343},"pulled":[],"published":[]}