{"id":606177,"league_id":81,"league":"Copa Colombia","kickoff":1791745200,"home":"Independiente Santa Fe","away":"Fortaleza FC","home_id":797,"away_id":4782,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.439,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.44,1.04],"read":null,"pass":"No call on Independiente Santa Fe against Fortaleza FC. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"Independiente Santa Fe are without 4 players, and Omar Fernández is a real loss."}],"lambda_home":1.4427223442441681,"lambda_away":1.0431999609549651,"corner_rate":9.85,"card_rate":0.231,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.705,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":23844,"name":"Andrés Mosquera","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.604},{"id":23848,"name":"Christian Mafla","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.6},{"id":23846,"name":"Emanuel Olivera","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.627},{"id":23847,"name":"Victor Moreno","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.588},{"id":23845,"name":"Helibelton Palacios","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.675},{"id":23850,"name":"Jhojan Torres","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.652},{"id":23858,"name":"Kilian Toscano","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.488},{"id":23854,"name":"Hugo Rodallega","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.475},{"id":10574,"name":"Franco Fagúndez","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.684},{"id":9314,"name":"Jader Obrian","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.604},{"id":23862,"name":"Nahuel Bustos","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.564},{"id":23863,"name":"Ivan Scarpeta","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.509},{"id":23851,"name":"Luis Angel Palacios","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.468},{"id":23856,"name":"Alexis Zapata","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.427},{"id":23861,"name":"Jeison Angulo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.384},{"id":23857,"name":"Weimar Asprilla","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.38},{"id":23855,"name":"Maximiliano Lovera","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.36},{"id":26214,"name":"Mateo Puerta","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.237},{"id":26213,"name":"Ewil Murillo Renteria","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.112},{"id":36291,"name":"Cristhian Portocarrero","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":59166,"name":"Juan Espitia","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":78051,"name":"Jean Caicedo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":36292,"name":"Jhojan Zúñiga","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.745},"away":{"formation":"4-1-4-1","players":[{"id":86443,"name":"Williams Barlasina","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.853},{"id":86441,"name":"Juan Castillo","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.374},{"id":74729,"name":"Yesid Díaz","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.861},{"id":74727,"name":"Joan Cajares","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.835},{"id":74779,"name":"Jeferson Medina","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.57},{"id":74830,"name":"Santiago Vivas","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.845},{"id":74748,"name":"Sebastián Navarro","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.771},{"id":97124,"name":"Brandon Mejía","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.262},{"id":74760,"name":"Kevin Balanta","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.229},{"id":74744,"name":"Leonardo Pico","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.719},{"id":74805,"name":"Jhonier Blanco","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.335},{"id":74752,"name":"Sebastian Herrera","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.651},{"id":86445,"name":"Andres Copete","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.559},{"id":86442,"name":"Jhon Solis","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.441},{"id":74736,"name":"Santiago Cuero","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.411},{"id":94556,"name":"Juan García","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.377},{"id":135112,"name":"Mariano Vázquez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.336},{"id":74756,"name":"Jhoiner Salas","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.319},{"id":74747,"name":"Italo Montaño Cortes","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.281},{"id":74841,"name":"Franco Pulicastro","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.28},{"id":9950,"name":"Andy Duvan Batioja","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.265},{"id":74881,"name":"Julio Sinisterra","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.261},{"id":74741,"name":"Jhon Velásquez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.225}],"confidence":0.705},"unavailable":[{"id":23849,"name":"Daniel Torres","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Head Injury"},{"id":10926,"name":"Emerson Rodríguez","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":10003,"name":"Kevin Balanta","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":23853,"name":"Omar Fernández","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Achilles Tendon Injury"},{"id":74773,"name":"Richardson Rivas","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knee Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":23844,"name":"Andrés Mosquera","side":"home"},{"id":23848,"name":"Christian Mafla","side":"home"},{"id":23846,"name":"Emanuel Olivera","side":"home"},{"id":23847,"name":"Victor Moreno","side":"home"},{"id":23845,"name":"Helibelton Palacios","side":"home"},{"id":23850,"name":"Jhojan Torres","side":"home"},{"id":23858,"name":"Kilian Toscano","side":"home"},{"id":23854,"name":"Hugo Rodallega","side":"home"},{"id":10574,"name":"Franco Fagúndez","side":"home"},{"id":9314,"name":"Jader Obrian","side":"home"},{"id":23862,"name":"Nahuel Bustos","side":"home"},{"id":23863,"name":"Ivan Scarpeta","side":"home"},{"id":23851,"name":"Luis Angel Palacios","side":"home"},{"id":23856,"name":"Alexis Zapata","side":"home"},{"id":23861,"name":"Jeison Angulo","side":"home"},{"id":23857,"name":"Weimar Asprilla","side":"home"},{"id":23855,"name":"Maximiliano Lovera","side":"home"},{"id":26214,"name":"Mateo Puerta","side":"home"},{"id":26213,"name":"Ewil Murillo Renteria","side":"home"},{"id":36291,"name":"Cristhian Portocarrero","side":"home"},{"id":59166,"name":"Juan Espitia","side":"home"},{"id":78051,"name":"Jean Caicedo","side":"home"},{"id":36292,"name":"Jhojan Zúñiga","side":"home"},{"id":23860,"name":"Juan Quintero","side":"home"},{"id":10003,"name":"Kevin Balanta","side":"home"},{"id":147621,"name":"Jean Carlos Caicedo","side":"home"},{"id":214354,"name":"Jhon Tenorio","side":"home"},{"id":217103,"name":"Jimmy Martínez","side":"home"},{"id":36289,"name":"Martin Palacios","side":"home"},{"id":93807,"name":"Emiliano Contreras","side":"home"},{"id":23859,"name":"Carlos Nemocón","side":"home"},{"id":36290,"name":"Jhojan Torres","side":"home"},{"id":23853,"name":"Omar Fernández","side":"home"},{"id":23849,"name":"Daniel Torres","side":"home"},{"id":23852,"name":"Yilmar Velázquez","side":"home"},{"id":10926,"name":"Emerson Rodríguez","side":"home"},{"id":66184,"name":"Leandro Angulo","side":"home"},{"id":86443,"name":"Williams Barlasina","side":"away"},{"id":86441,"name":"Juan Castillo","side":"away"},{"id":74729,"name":"Yesid Díaz","side":"away"},{"id":74727,"name":"Joan Cajares","side":"away"},{"id":74779,"name":"Jeferson Medina","side":"away"},{"id":74830,"name":"Santiago Vivas","side":"away"},{"id":74748,"name":"Sebastián Navarro","side":"away"},{"id":97124,"name":"Brandon Mejía","side":"away"},{"id":74760,"name":"Kevin Balanta","side":"away"},{"id":74744,"name":"Leonardo Pico","side":"away"},{"id":74805,"name":"Jhonier Blanco","side":"away"},{"id":74752,"name":"Sebastian Herrera","side":"away"},{"id":86445,"name":"Andres Copete","side":"away"},{"id":86442,"name":"Jhon Solis","side":"away"},{"id":74736,"name":"Santiago Cuero","side":"away"},{"id":94556,"name":"Juan García","side":"away"},{"id":135112,"name":"Mariano Vázquez","side":"away"},{"id":74756,"name":"Jhoiner Salas","side":"away"},{"id":74747,"name":"Italo Montaño Cortes","side":"away"},{"id":74841,"name":"Franco Pulicastro","side":"away"},{"id":9950,"name":"Andy Duvan Batioja","side":"away"},{"id":74881,"name":"Julio Sinisterra","side":"away"},{"id":74741,"name":"Jhon Velásquez","side":"away"},{"id":74770,"name":"David Ramírez","side":"away"},{"id":86444,"name":"Edwin Cabezas","side":"away"},{"id":74864,"name":"Jonathan Marulanda","side":"away"},{"id":209005,"name":"Jeferson Medina","side":"away"},{"id":74732,"name":"Jhon Balanta","side":"away"},{"id":210412,"name":"Adrian Mosquera","side":"away"},{"id":216627,"name":"A Mosquera","side":"away"},{"id":10180,"name":"Teun Wilke","side":"away"},{"id":146122,"name":"Fabián Hernandez","side":"away"},{"id":74842,"name":"Cristian Santander","side":"away"},{"id":74767,"name":"Michael Barragán","side":"away"},{"id":209004,"name":"Julián Candelo","side":"away"},{"id":96544,"name":"David Barrera","side":"away"},{"id":74773,"name":"Richardson Rivas","side":"away"},{"id":94529,"name":"Andrés Amaya","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":23849,"name":"Daniel Torres","side":"home","team":"Independiente Santa Fe","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Head Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":{"apps":42,"starts":31,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":10,"team_games":50,"tracked_apps":42,"tracked_starts":31},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Millonarios","kickoff":1788398700,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.046,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":76,"country":0}},{"id":10926,"name":"Emerson Rodríguez","side":"home","team":"Independiente Santa Fe","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":{"apps":7,"starts":1,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":50,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Millonarios","kickoff":1788398700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.01,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":10003,"name":"Kevin Balanta","side":"home","team":"Independiente Santa Fe","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":{"apps":4,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":50,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.005,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":23853,"name":"Omar Fernández","side":"home","team":"Independiente Santa Fe","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Achilles Tendon Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":33,"starts":25,"goals":5,"assists":10,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":10,"team_games":50,"tracked_apps":33,"tracked_starts":25},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Cúcuta Deportivo","kickoff":1776625200,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["chance_creator"],"importance":0.171,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":10574,"name":"Franco Fagúndez","side":"home","team":"Independiente Santa Fe","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":35,"starts":13,"goals":10,"assists":4,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":5,"team_games":50,"tracked_apps":35,"tracked_starts":13},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Cúcuta Deportivo","kickoff":1776625200,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.191,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":142,"country":0}},{"id":9314,"name":"Jader Obrian","side":"home","team":"Independiente Santa Fe","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":30,"starts":10,"goals":1,"assists":3,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":6,"team_games":50,"tracked_apps":30,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Once Caldas","kickoff":1785718800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.046,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":177,"country":0}},{"id":74773,"name":"Richardson Rivas","side":"away","team":"Fortaleza FC","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":23,"starts":11,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":36,"tracked_apps":23,"tracked_starts":11},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Cúcuta Deportivo","kickoff":1786224000,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.094,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":74805,"name":"Jhonier Blanco","side":"away","team":"Fortaleza FC","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":36,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Jaguares de Córdoba","kickoff":1789168500,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.021,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":797,"away":4782},"split":{"home":null,"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":1},"below":{"w":1,"d":2,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":541,"name":"Pablo Repetto","vs":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1788650700,"score":"2-2","result":"D"}}},"away":{"id":783,"name":"Diego Arias","vs":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1788650700,"score":"2-2","result":"D"}}}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":74768,"name":"Darwin Lopez","goals":3,"rank":1},{"id":64931,"name":"Jairo Molina","goals":3,"rank":2},{"id":74793,"name":"Jhon Vásquez","goals":3,"rank":3},{"id":22699,"name":"Jorge Hurtado","goals":3,"rank":4},{"id":19446,"name":"Leonardo Castro","goals":3,"rank":5},{"id":74674,"name":"Misael Martínez","goals":3,"rank":6},{"id":19052,"name":"Brandon Caicedo","goals":2,"rank":7},{"id":19445,"name":"David Macalister Silva","goals":2,"rank":8},{"id":18240,"name":"Didier Moreno","goals":2,"rank":9},{"id":3827,"name":"Emerson Batalla","goals":2,"rank":10},{"id":87143,"name":"Heiner Mosquera","goals":2,"rank":11},{"id":74747,"name":"Italo Montaño Cortes","goals":2,"rank":12},{"id":74668,"name":"Jesús Muñoz","goals":2,"rank":13},{"id":67371,"name":"Jorge Rivaldo","goals":2,"rank":14},{"id":19454,"name":"Julian Angulo","goals":2,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Round of 16","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":6,"home_wins":4,"draws":2,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":13,"away_goals":4,"avg_total_goals":2.8333333333333335,"home_win_rate":0.6666666666666666,"away_win_rate":0,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Fortaleza FC","date":"2026-09-05T23:25:00+00:00","home":"Independiente Santa Fe","score":"2-2","event_id":220124,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":4782,"home_team_id":797},{"away":"Independiente Santa Fe","date":"2026-02-07T23:20:00+00:00","home":"Fortaleza FC","score":"1-1","event_id":220107,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":797,"home_team_id":4782},{"away":"Fortaleza FC","date":"2025-03-09T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Independiente Santa Fe","score":"2-0","event_id":225398,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":4782,"home_team_id":797},{"away":"Fortaleza FC","date":"2024-03-09T21:10:00+00:00","home":"Independiente Santa Fe","score":"2-0","event_id":231039,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":4782,"home_team_id":797},{"away":"Fortaleza FC","date":"2016-05-14T22:00:00+00:00","home":"Independiente Santa Fe","score":"4-0","event_id":357168,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":4782,"home_team_id":797},{"away":"Independiente Santa Fe","date":"2014-02-01T22:30:00+00:00","home":"Fortaleza FC","score":"1-2","event_id":391191,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":797,"home_team_id":4782}]},"standings":{"home":null,"away":{"team_id":4782,"position":2,"played":4,"points":5,"goal_diff":2,"team_name":"Fortaleza FC","won":1,"drawn":2,"lost":1,"goals_for":5,"goals_against":3,"group":"Group C"},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.67,"record":"3-1-2","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"LWLDWW"},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"0-5-1","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"winless 6","sequence":"DDLDDD","venue_ppg":1}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Independiente Santa Fe are without 4 players, and Omar Fernández is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.232,"players":[{"player":"Omar Fernández","role":"MID","reason":"Achilles Tendon Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.171,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["chance_creator"]},{"player":"Daniel Torres","role":"MID","reason":"Head Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.046,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Emerson Rodríguez","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.01,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Kevin Balanta","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.005,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.58,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fortaleza FC are without 1 player, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":1,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.094,"players":[{"player":"Richardson Rivas","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.094,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14}]},"strength":0.235,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.705,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.295,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Independiente Santa Fe are in an unknown position; Fortaleza FC are safely mid-table, with 33 games remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":33,"home":{"state":"unknown"},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":2,"points":5,"games_left":33,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":-2,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pablo Repetto has 34 matches in charge at Independiente Santa Fe, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pablo Repetto","matches_in_charge":34,"tenure_days":185,"ppm":1.74,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Diego Arias has 31 matches in charge at Fortaleza FC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Diego Arias","matches_in_charge":31,"tenure_days":246,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Independiente Santa Fe come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.791666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.8875984674283752 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.046,"defence":0.046,"effective_matches":2,"shrunk":0.8},"away":{"attack":-0.013,"defence":0.057,"effective_matches":1.9,"shrunk":0.81},"sample":1.8875984674283752,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45,"shots":12.7,"xg_per_shot":0.094,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.393,"finishing_vs_xg":0.13},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.8,"shots":11.8,"xg_per_shot":0.062,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.317,"finishing_vs_xg":0.35},"possession_gap":-4.8},"strength":0.19,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Independiente Santa Fe are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.13,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fortaleza FC have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.35,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.22191603333736318},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4890,"created_at":"2026-10-08T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":606177,"event_date":"2026-10-11T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":797,"home_team":"Independiente Santa Fe","away_team_id":4782,"away_team":"Fortaleza FC","league_id":81,"league_name":"Copa Colombia"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":57.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5714,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791699787,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed1c1c","away":null},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}