{"id":606176,"league_id":80,"league":"Categoría Primera A","kickoff":1792717200,"home":"Atlético Nacional","away":"Deportivo Pasto","home_id":766,"away_id":3419,"venue_id":568,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.635,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.71,0.73],"read":{"text":"Atlético Nacional to win","side":"home"},"pass":"No call on Atlético Nacional against Deportivo Pasto. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"Atlético Nacional are without 7 players, and Alfredo Morelos and Andrés Sarmiento are real losses."},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."}],"lambda_home":1.7082473670884086,"lambda_away":0.7337956908169145,"corner_rate":8.4,"card_rate":0.589,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.45,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":37126,"name":"Franco Armani","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.527},{"id":19435,"name":"Neider Parra","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.62},{"id":19417,"name":"Andrés Román","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.548},{"id":19431,"name":"Juan Zapata","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.415},{"id":19432,"name":"César Haydar","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.439},{"id":22791,"name":"Elías Cabrera","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.506},{"id":23279,"name":"Felipe Marin","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.412},{"id":23276,"name":"Juan Rosa","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.213},{"id":23277,"name":"Edwin Cardona","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.29},{"id":36293,"name":"Yeicar Perlaza","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.304},{"id":9503,"name":"Cristian Arango","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.243},{"id":19420,"name":"Milton Casco","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.434},{"id":10128,"name":"James Rodríguez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.367},{"id":19433,"name":"Samuel Velásquez","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.367},{"id":18523,"name":"Luis Marquinez","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.347},{"id":23281,"name":"Xavi Rios","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.342},{"id":216020,"name":"Emanuel Benitez","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.298},{"id":66133,"name":"Kevin Parra","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.292},{"id":19422,"name":"Juan Manuel Rengifo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.279},{"id":19421,"name":"Jorman Campuzano","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.278},{"id":9583,"name":"Nicolás Rodríguez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":19423,"name":"Matheus Uribe","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.235},{"id":219490,"name":"Jose Rafael Escorcia","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.213}],"confidence":0.45},"away":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":76007,"name":"Ederson Cabezas","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.424},{"id":74618,"name":"Hervin Goyes","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.69},{"id":74608,"name":"Mateo Garavito","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.671},{"id":116507,"name":"Derik Osede","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.335},{"id":74870,"name":"Santiago Jiménez","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.387},{"id":74609,"name":"Enrique Serje","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.685},{"id":74625,"name":"Jonathan Perlaza","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.668},{"id":94794,"name":"Franco Leys","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.632},{"id":74614,"name":"Joider Micolta","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.551},{"id":74713,"name":"Jorge Obregón","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.316},{"id":74616,"name":"Santiago Córdoba","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":74619,"name":"Geovanni Banguera","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.557},{"id":74610,"name":"Nicolas Gil Uribe","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.554},{"id":74615,"name":"Matías Pisano","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.548},{"id":74612,"name":"Diego Chávez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.538},{"id":19841,"name":"Joyce Ossa","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.519},{"id":74840,"name":"Fainer Torijano","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.41},{"id":74621,"name":"Harrinson Mancilla","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.346},{"id":74613,"name":"Yeiler Góez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.296},{"id":74690,"name":"Patrick Preciado","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.287},{"id":17163,"name":"Mayer Gil","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.281},{"id":74688,"name":"Heiler Moreno","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.234},{"id":79606,"name":"Andrés Ibargüen","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.232}],"confidence":0.614},"unavailable":[{"id":19425,"name":"Alfredo Morelos","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":9941,"name":"Andres Reyes","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":19424,"name":"Andrés Sarmiento","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knock Injury"},{"id":23278,"name":"Elkin Rivero","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Broken Foot"},{"id":74661,"name":"Ian Poveda","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Physical Discomfort"},{"id":19426,"name":"Marlos Moreno","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":19419,"name":"William Tesillo","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Physical Discomfort"}]},"people":[{"id":37126,"name":"Franco Armani","side":"home"},{"id":19435,"name":"Neider Parra","side":"home"},{"id":19417,"name":"Andrés Román","side":"home"},{"id":19431,"name":"Juan Zapata","side":"home"},{"id":19432,"name":"César Haydar","side":"home"},{"id":22791,"name":"Elías Cabrera","side":"home"},{"id":23279,"name":"Felipe Marin","side":"home"},{"id":23276,"name":"Juan Rosa","side":"home"},{"id":23277,"name":"Edwin Cardona","side":"home"},{"id":36293,"name":"Yeicar Perlaza","side":"home"},{"id":9503,"name":"Cristian Arango","side":"home"},{"id":19420,"name":"Milton Casco","side":"home"},{"id":10128,"name":"James Rodríguez","side":"home"},{"id":19433,"name":"Samuel Velásquez","side":"home"},{"id":18523,"name":"Luis Marquinez","side":"home"},{"id":23281,"name":"Xavi Rios","side":"home"},{"id":216020,"name":"Emanuel Benitez","side":"home"},{"id":66133,"name":"Kevin Parra","side":"home"},{"id":19422,"name":"Juan Manuel Rengifo","side":"home"},{"id":19421,"name":"Jorman Campuzano","side":"home"},{"id":9583,"name":"Nicolás Rodríguez","side":"home"},{"id":19423,"name":"Matheus Uribe","side":"home"},{"id":219490,"name":"Jose Rafael Escorcia","side":"home"},{"id":215150,"name":"González","side":"home"},{"id":218190,"name":"Jhan Moreno","side":"home"},{"id":215153,"name":"Matías Tobón","side":"home"},{"id":215155,"name":"Michael Snoop","side":"home"},{"id":215156,"name":"Pérez","side":"home"},{"id":215154,"name":"Quesada","side":"home"},{"id":219277,"name":"Jhan Moreno","side":"home"},{"id":9941,"name":"Andres Reyes","side":"home"},{"id":19419,"name":"William Tesillo","side":"home"},{"id":219491,"name":"Jhan Moreno","side":"home"},{"id":215152,"name":"Juan Ibarra","side":"home"},{"id":19425,"name":"Alfredo Morelos","side":"home"},{"id":218189,"name":"Edwin Echeverria","side":"home"},{"id":74661,"name":"Ian Poveda","side":"home"},{"id":23283,"name":"Edimer Zea","side":"home"},{"id":19426,"name":"Marlos Moreno","side":"home"},{"id":23278,"name":"Elkin Rivero","side":"home"},{"id":19424,"name":"Andrés Sarmiento","side":"home"},{"id":19430,"name":"Matias Lozano","side":"home"},{"id":215151,"name":"Emmanuel Benítez","side":"home"},{"id":19428,"name":"Dairon Asprilla","side":"home"},{"id":19429,"name":"Eduard Bello","side":"home"},{"id":19418,"name":"Simon Garcia","side":"home"},{"id":19427,"name":"Juan Bauza","side":"home"},{"id":76007,"name":"Ederson Cabezas","side":"away"},{"id":74618,"name":"Hervin Goyes","side":"away"},{"id":74608,"name":"Mateo Garavito","side":"away"},{"id":116507,"name":"Derik Osede","side":"away"},{"id":74870,"name":"Santiago Jiménez","side":"away"},{"id":74609,"name":"Enrique Serje","side":"away"},{"id":74625,"name":"Jonathan Perlaza","side":"away"},{"id":94794,"name":"Franco Leys","side":"away"},{"id":74614,"name":"Joider Micolta","side":"away"},{"id":74713,"name":"Jorge Obregón","side":"away"},{"id":74616,"name":"Santiago Córdoba","side":"away"},{"id":74619,"name":"Geovanni Banguera","side":"away"},{"id":74610,"name":"Nicolas Gil Uribe","side":"away"},{"id":74615,"name":"Matías Pisano","side":"away"},{"id":74612,"name":"Diego Chávez","side":"away"},{"id":19841,"name":"Joyce Ossa","side":"away"},{"id":74840,"name":"Fainer Torijano","side":"away"},{"id":74621,"name":"Harrinson Mancilla","side":"away"},{"id":74613,"name":"Yeiler Góez","side":"away"},{"id":74690,"name":"Patrick Preciado","side":"away"},{"id":17163,"name":"Mayer Gil","side":"away"},{"id":74688,"name":"Heiler Moreno","side":"away"},{"id":79606,"name":"Andrés Ibargüen","side":"away"},{"id":95448,"name":"Luis Marquínez","side":"away"},{"id":216918,"name":"Tomás Blandón","side":"away"},{"id":74698,"name":"Julián Quiñones","side":"away"},{"id":213005,"name":"Michael Mosquera","side":"away"},{"id":143892,"name":"Arbey Diaz","side":"away"},{"id":143893,"name":"Luis Lora","side":"away"},{"id":143889,"name":"Jeirye Caicedo","side":"away"},{"id":143890,"name":"John Mendez","side":"away"},{"id":90371,"name":"Didier Chillambo","side":"away"},{"id":210062,"name":"Eder Gómez","side":"away"},{"id":143894,"name":"Luis Marquines","side":"away"},{"id":97610,"name":"Kevin Lopez","side":"away"},{"id":143891,"name":"Diego Chavez","side":"away"},{"id":96443,"name":"Brayan Sánchez","side":"away"},{"id":79605,"name":"John Méndez","side":"away"},{"id":97613,"name":"Willian Ordonez","side":"away"},{"id":74689,"name":"Yeison Tolosa","side":"away"},{"id":208241,"name":"Kevin Santacruz","side":"away"},{"id":74687,"name":"David Guerrero","side":"away"},{"id":65462,"name":"Andrey Estupiñán","side":"away"},{"id":74622,"name":"Johan Caicedo","side":"away"},{"id":74617,"name":"Wilson Morelo","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":19425,"name":"Alfredo Morelos","side":"home","team":"Atlético Nacional","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":31,"starts":25,"goals":14,"assists":6,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":10,"team_games":43,"tracked_apps":31,"tracked_starts":25},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Alianza Valledupar FC","kickoff":1771716000,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.241,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":19424,"name":"Andrés Sarmiento","side":"home","team":"Atlético Nacional","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":36,"starts":19,"goals":10,"assists":6,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":7,"team_games":43,"tracked_apps":35,"tracked_starts":19},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Boyacá Chicó FC","kickoff":1792267200,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"4-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.141,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":25,"country":0}},{"id":19426,"name":"Marlos Moreno","side":"home","team":"Atlético Nacional","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":31,"starts":10,"goals":7,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":43,"tracked_apps":31,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Alianza Valledupar FC","kickoff":1788053400,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.098,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":74661,"name":"Ian Poveda","side":"home","team":"Atlético Nacional","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Physical Discomfort","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":7,"starts":3,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":43,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Rionegro Águilas Doradas","kickoff":1789333500,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.04,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":19419,"name":"William Tesillo","side":"home","team":"Atlético Nacional","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Physical Discomfort","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":27,"starts":26,"goals":1,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":9,"team_games":43,"tracked_apps":27,"tracked_starts":26},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Boyacá Chicó FC","kickoff":1768692000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.087,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9503,"name":"Cristian Arango","side":"home","team":"Atlético Nacional","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":25,"starts":4,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":43,"tracked_apps":25,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Internacional de Bogotá","kickoff":1778628000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"7-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.028,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":23276,"name":"Juan Rosa","side":"home","team":"Atlético Nacional","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":0,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":43,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Alianza Valledupar FC","kickoff":1788053400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.01,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":65462,"name":"Andrey Estupiñán","side":"away","team":"Deportivo Pasto","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":19,"starts":17,"goals":13,"assists":3,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":6,"team_games":37,"tracked_apps":19,"tracked_starts":17},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Rionegro Águilas Doradas","kickoff":1769374800,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","top_creator","best_performer"],"importance":0.396,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":239,"country":0}},{"id":74713,"name":"Jorge Obregón","side":"away","team":"Deportivo Pasto","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":37,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Rionegro Águilas Doradas","kickoff":1785610800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.022,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":74616,"name":"Santiago Córdoba","side":"away","team":"Deportivo Pasto","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":23,"starts":12,"goals":6,"assists":2,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":37,"tracked_apps":23,"tracked_starts":12},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Deportivo Pereira","kickoff":1771637400,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.168,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":766,"away":3419},"split":{"home":{"above":null,"below":{"w":6,"d":2,"l":2}},"away":{"above":null,"below":{"w":2,"d":3,"l":5}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":505,"name":"Lucas González","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1774826400,"score":"2-1","result":"W"}}},"away":{"id":4466,"name":"Diego Merino Rivera","vs":null}},"best_xi":[{"id":19419,"name":"William Tesillo","team_id":766,"position":"D","matches":26,"goals":1,"assists":2},{"id":19432,"name":"César Haydar","team_id":766,"position":"D","matches":20,"goals":0,"assists":1},{"id":65462,"name":"Andrey Estupiñán","team_id":3419,"position":"F","matches":19,"goals":13,"assists":3}],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":3963,"name":"Yeison Guzmán","goals":18,"rank":1},{"id":54879,"name":"Dayro Moreno","goals":16,"rank":2},{"id":9577,"name":"Luis Muriel","goals":16,"rank":3},{"id":19425,"name":"Alfredo Morelos","goals":14,"rank":4},{"id":23854,"name":"Hugo Rodallega","goals":14,"rank":5},{"id":65462,"name":"Andrey Estupiñán","goals":13,"rank":6},{"id":74630,"name":"Jefry Zapata","goals":13,"rank":7},{"id":19446,"name":"Leonardo Castro","goals":12,"rank":8},{"id":19045,"name":"Luciano Pons","goals":12,"rank":9},{"id":3827,"name":"Emerson Batalla","goals":11,"rank":10},{"id":67371,"name":"Jorge Rivaldo","goals":11,"rank":11},{"id":23862,"name":"Nahuel Bustos","goals":11,"rank":12},{"id":74754,"name":"Andrés Rentería","goals":10,"rank":13},{"id":19424,"name":"Andrés Sarmiento","goals":10,"rank":14},{"id":74800,"name":"Jaime Peralta","goals":10,"rank":15}],"round_label":"League phase · Matchday 14","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":21,"home_wins":14,"draws":3,"away_wins":4,"home_goals":29,"away_goals":13,"avg_total_goals":2,"home_win_rate":0.6666666666666666,"away_win_rate":0.19047619047619047,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Atlético Nacional","date":"2026-03-29T23:20:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Pasto","score":"1-2","event_id":220218,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":766,"home_team_id":3419},{"away":"Deportivo Pasto","date":"2025-04-30T00:30:00+00:00","home":"Atlético Nacional","score":"3-0","event_id":225482,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":3419,"home_team_id":766},{"away":"Deportivo Pasto","date":"2024-03-24T23:10:00+00:00","home":"Atlético Nacional","score":"1-0","event_id":231063,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":3419,"home_team_id":766},{"away":"Deportivo Pasto","date":"2023-06-18T01:00:00+00:00","home":"Atlético Nacional","score":"3-2","event_id":240554,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":3419,"home_team_id":766},{"away":"Atlético Nacional","date":"2023-05-20T22:00:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Pasto","score":"1-1","event_id":240475,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":766,"home_team_id":3419},{"away":"Atlético Nacional","date":"2023-03-05T22:40:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Pasto","score":"0-1","event_id":240563,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":766,"home_team_id":3419},{"away":"Atlético Nacional","date":"2022-02-07T01:15:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Pasto","score":"0-1","event_id":251033,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":766,"home_team_id":3419},{"away":"Atlético Nacional","date":"2021-02-03T01:05:00+00:00","home":"Deportivo Pasto","score":"0-0","event_id":264297,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":766,"home_team_id":3419},{"away":"Deportivo Pasto","date":"2020-11-09T01:10:00+00:00","home":"Atlético Nacional","score":"1-0","event_id":276877,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":3419,"home_team_id":766},{"away":"Deportivo Pasto","date":"2019-03-31T01:00:00+00:00","home":"Atlético Nacional","score":"0-1","event_id":286528,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":3419,"home_team_id":766}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":766,"position":1,"played":32,"points":66,"goal_diff":33,"team_name":"Atlético Nacional","won":21,"drawn":3,"lost":8,"goals_for":60,"goals_against":27,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":3419,"position":13,"played":32,"points":43,"goal_diff":-6,"team_name":"Deportivo Pasto","won":12,"drawn":7,"lost":13,"goals_for":38,"goals_against":44,"group":null},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"2-3-1","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"unbeaten 4","sequence":"WLDDWD","venue_ppg":1.5},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":0.83,"goals_against":1.5,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLWWLD","venue_ppg":1.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atlético Nacional are without 7 players, and Alfredo Morelos and Andrés Sarmiento are real losses.","evidence":{"count":7,"measured":6,"combined_goal_share":0.538,"combined_importance":0.622,"players":[{"player":"Alfredo Morelos","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.215,"importance":0.241,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5,"tags":["top_scorer"]},{"player":"Andrés Sarmiento","role":"MID","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.154,"importance":0.141,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12},{"player":"Marlos Moreno","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.108,"importance":0.098,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12},{"player":"William Tesillo","role":"DEF","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0.015,"importance":0.087,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Ian Poveda","role":"ATT","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0.031,"importance":0.04,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Andres Reyes","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.015,"importance":0.015,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Elkin Rivero","role":"MID","reason":"Broken Foot","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12}]},"strength":1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-4.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":1.1}]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Pasto report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.45,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.55,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":24,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":66,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":34,"gap_to_europe":-15},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":43,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":23,"gap_to_safety":11,"gap_to_europe":8},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lucas González has 32 matches in charge at Atlético Nacional, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Lucas González","matches_in_charge":32,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":2,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Diego Merino Rivera is 2 games into the job at Deportivo Pasto. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Diego Merino Rivera","matches_in_charge":2,"tenure_days":287,"ppm":1.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":2.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.467,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.8}]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.249,"defence":0.208,"effective_matches":16.7,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":-0.125,"defence":0.005,"effective_matches":14.9,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":61.9,"shots":16.6,"xg_per_shot":0.084,"corners":6.5,"corners_per_shot":0.393,"finishing_vs_xg":0.44},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.1,"shots":11.4,"xg_per_shot":0.069,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.376,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.12},"possession_gap":6.8},"strength":0.273,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atlético Nacional have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.44,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Pasto are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"6 yellow cards in this referee's last 1 games, exactly what this league averages, and 1 red. — though 1 game is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":1,"yellows_per_match":6,"reds_per_match":1,"league_yellows_per_match":5.6,"league_reds_per_match":0.473,"yellow_ratio":1.07,"red_ratio":2.11,"sample":1,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 594 km for Deportivo Pasto.","evidence":{"travel_km":594},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3.9,"temperature_c":16,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3226737920074502},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Look past the results and this is Atlético Nacional's game. Atlético Nacional have created the better chances in all of their last nine games. On top of that, they have scored 19 in their last nine from chances that would usually bring about 13. That finishing is running hot. Meanwhile, Deportivo Pasto have conceded 11 in their last nine from chances that would usually cost about 7. They have been punished for very little. If that carries on, Atlético Nacional should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5450,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":606176,"event_date":"2026-10-23T01:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":766,"home_team":"Atlético Nacional","away_team_id":3419,"away_team":"Deportivo Pasto","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":72.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7282,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":606176,"event_date":"2026-10-23T01:00:00Z","home_team":"Atlético Nacional","away_team":"Deportivo Pasto","polymarket_event_id":"1154668","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":11949.883249,"volume_1wk":11949.883249,"volume_1mo":11949.883249,"volume_1yr":11949.883249,"open_interest":1622.675445,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"CA Belgrano 0 - 3 CA River Plate":0.9995},"updated_at":"2026-10-19T04:27:38Z"}},"computed_at":1792658213,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#2e1c72"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Atanasio Girardot","city":"Medellin","capacity":44739},"pulled":[],"published":[]}