{"id":606145,"league_id":39,"league":"FA Cup","kickoff":1792245600,"home":"Boston United","away":"Scunthorpe United","home_id":3876,"away_id":1252,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.266,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.78,1.53],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"Passing on Boston United v Scunthorpe United. It is too open to call with any conviction.","flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."}],"lambda_home":1.7848761707701268,"lambda_away":1.5294857515324813,"corner_rate":10.88,"card_rate":0.031,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.459,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":88474,"name":"Louis Chadwick","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":34203,"name":"Lewis Shipley","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":88475,"name":"Connor Teale","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":33938,"name":"Jamie Grimes","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":66000,"name":"Sai Sachdev","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":42809,"name":"Terrell Agyemang","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":34248,"name":"Gavan Holohan","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":88476,"name":"Lenell John-Lewis","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":62560,"name":"Connor McBride","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":33641,"name":"Jack Holmes","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":7002,"name":"Lennon Wheeldon","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":13523,"name":"Luke Faxon","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":33884,"name":"Tom Cursons","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":88882,"name":"Ken Aboh","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":7123,"name":"Jake Rooney","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":34202,"name":"Niall Canavan","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":35372,"name":"Georgie Gent","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":4185,"name":"Ben Hammond","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":36213,"name":"Jack Levi Sutton","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":12356,"name":"Nicholas Pozo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":6218,"name":"Oliver Bostock","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":54171,"name":"Kai Mauro","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015}],"confidence":0.468},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":29404,"name":"Louis Jones","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":29386,"name":"Kyle Hurst","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":29398,"name":"Will Evans","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":42751,"name":"Jacob Butterfield","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":29397,"name":"Joseph Starbuck","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":29391,"name":"Joe Rowley","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":29396,"name":"Ross Barrows","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":43149,"name":"Luke Brennan","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":29390,"name":"Alfie Beestin","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":6767,"name":"Hugh Parker","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":46323,"name":"James Gale","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":50532,"name":"Maison Campbell","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":29385,"name":"Patrick Jones","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":7120,"name":"Stanley Ashbee","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":29394,"name":"Tyler Denton","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":36180,"name":"Tyrell Sellars-Fleming","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":29399,"name":"Branden Horton","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":34257,"name":"Reagan Ogle","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":29379,"name":"Declan Howe","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":29393,"name":"Jean Belehouan","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":63372,"name":"Jordan Richards","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":46263,"name":"Daniel Batty","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":62613,"name":"James Bailey","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015}],"confidence":0.459},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":88474,"name":"Louis Chadwick","side":"home"},{"id":34203,"name":"Lewis Shipley","side":"home"},{"id":88475,"name":"Connor Teale","side":"home"},{"id":33938,"name":"Jamie Grimes","side":"home"},{"id":66000,"name":"Sai Sachdev","side":"home"},{"id":42809,"name":"Terrell Agyemang","side":"home"},{"id":34248,"name":"Gavan Holohan","side":"home"},{"id":88476,"name":"Lenell John-Lewis","side":"home"},{"id":62560,"name":"Connor McBride","side":"home"},{"id":33641,"name":"Jack Holmes","side":"home"},{"id":7002,"name":"Lennon Wheeldon","side":"home"},{"id":13523,"name":"Luke Faxon","side":"home"},{"id":33884,"name":"Tom Cursons","side":"home"},{"id":88882,"name":"Ken Aboh","side":"home"},{"id":7123,"name":"Jake Rooney","side":"home"},{"id":34202,"name":"Niall Canavan","side":"home"},{"id":35372,"name":"Georgie Gent","side":"home"},{"id":4185,"name":"Ben Hammond","side":"home"},{"id":36213,"name":"Jack Levi Sutton","side":"home"},{"id":12356,"name":"Nicholas Pozo","side":"home"},{"id":6218,"name":"Oliver Bostock","side":"home"},{"id":54171,"name":"Kai Mauro","side":"home"},{"id":142081,"name":"Ben Grist","side":"home"},{"id":124902,"name":"Jacob Scott","side":"home"},{"id":185535,"name":"Stephen Pereira","side":"home"},{"id":142079,"name":"Ezra Aaron","side":"home"},{"id":185534,"name":"Nathan Forbes","side":"home"},{"id":142080,"name":"Dylan Hill","side":"home"},{"id":29404,"name":"Louis Jones","side":"away"},{"id":29386,"name":"Kyle Hurst","side":"away"},{"id":29398,"name":"Will Evans","side":"away"},{"id":42751,"name":"Jacob Butterfield","side":"away"},{"id":29397,"name":"Joseph Starbuck","side":"away"},{"id":29391,"name":"Joe Rowley","side":"away"},{"id":29396,"name":"Ross Barrows","side":"away"},{"id":43149,"name":"Luke Brennan","side":"away"},{"id":29390,"name":"Alfie Beestin","side":"away"},{"id":6767,"name":"Hugh Parker","side":"away"},{"id":46323,"name":"James Gale","side":"away"},{"id":50532,"name":"Maison Campbell","side":"away"},{"id":29385,"name":"Patrick Jones","side":"away"},{"id":7120,"name":"Stanley Ashbee","side":"away"},{"id":29394,"name":"Tyler Denton","side":"away"},{"id":36180,"name":"Tyrell Sellars-Fleming","side":"away"},{"id":29399,"name":"Branden Horton","side":"away"},{"id":34257,"name":"Reagan Ogle","side":"away"},{"id":29379,"name":"Declan Howe","side":"away"},{"id":29393,"name":"Jean Belehouan","side":"away"},{"id":63372,"name":"Jordan Richards","side":"away"},{"id":46263,"name":"Daniel Batty","side":"away"},{"id":62613,"name":"James Bailey","side":"away"},{"id":29400,"name":"Oliver Rose","side":"away"},{"id":46276,"name":"Callum Howe","side":"away"},{"id":33839,"name":"James Norwood","side":"away"},{"id":46506,"name":"Kian Johnson","side":"away"},{"id":29392,"name":"Harry Shipstone","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":88476,"name":"Lenell John-Lewis","side":"home","team":"Boston United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":1,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":7002,"name":"Lennon Wheeldon","side":"home","team":"Boston United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":2,"starts":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Solihull Moors","kickoff":1786802400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.028,"country":{"team":null,"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":6767,"name":"Hugh Parker","side":"away","team":"Scunthorpe United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":1,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":46323,"name":"James Gale","side":"away","team":"Scunthorpe United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":2,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.001,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":142138,"name":"Kareem Hassan-Smith","goals":2,"rank":1}],"round_label":"Qualification Round 4","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":2,"home_wins":1,"draws":1,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":7,"away_goals":4,"avg_total_goals":5.5,"home_win_rate":0.5,"away_win_rate":0,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Boston United","date":"2026-02-14T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Scunthorpe United","score":"3-6","event_id":589083,"away_score":6,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":3876,"home_team_id":1252},{"away":"Scunthorpe United","date":"2025-10-18T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Boston United","score":"1-1","event_id":588834,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1252,"home_team_id":3876}]},"standings":null,"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":1,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"winless 4","sequence":"DWLDLL","venue_ppg":0.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1,"record":"2-0-4","goals_for":1.17,"goals_against":1.5,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"WLLWLL","venue_ppg":0.75}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Boston United report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Scunthorpe United report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.459,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.541,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Scunthorpe United lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"Scunthorpe United","reverse_score":"3-6","reverse_date":1771081200},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paul Hurst has 18 matches in charge at Boston United, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Paul Hurst","matches_in_charge":18,"tenure_days":99,"ppm":1.06,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Andy Butler has 52 matches in charge at Scunthorpe United, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Andy Butler","matches_in_charge":52,"tenure_days":351,"ppm":1.46,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Boston United come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Scunthorpe United come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"One side has no fitted rating, so opponent-adjusted strength is unavailable for this fixture.","evidence":{"home_rated":false,"away_rated":true},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":44.3,"shots":12.3,"xg_per_shot":0.154,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.5,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.65},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48,"shots":11.6,"xg_per_shot":0.125,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.409,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.21},"possession_gap":-3.7},"strength":0.147,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Boston United have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.65,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Scunthorpe United are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.21,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.14453244626317138},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: open","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5083,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":606145,"event_date":"2026-10-17T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":3876,"home_team":"Boston United","away_team_id":1252,"away_team":"Scunthorpe United","league_id":39,"league_name":"FA Cup"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":41.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4115,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037679,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ecc016","away":null},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}