{"id":606046,"league_id":41,"league":"Copa del Rey","kickoff":1793296800,"home":"S.S. Reyes","away":"CD Coria","home_id":3438,"away_id":4967,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"finished","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.165,"score":[1,2],"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.43,1.52],"odds_1x2":{"HOME":0.37055226161799176,"DRAW":0.2808698759762939,"AWAY":0.3485778624057144},"read":null,"top_pick":{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1,"odds":1.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.25},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.154}],"prob":0.793,"lean":false},"pass":null,"confident":[{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1,"prob":0.793,"odds":1.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.25},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.154}],"lean":false,"caveat":false}],"flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"S.S. Reyes have taken 0.60 points a game from their last 5 (1W 0D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0, and 1.00 a game at home."}],"lambda_home":1.4313669074658402,"lambda_away":1.5179268869269253,"corner_rate":11.04,"card_rate":0.304,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.023,"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":115568,"name":"David Alguacil","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":115574,"name":"Iván García","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":152659,"name":"Aarón González","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":123183,"name":"Adrián López","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":130821,"name":"Fer Ruiz","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.295},{"id":130577,"name":"Ale Galindo","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":121404,"name":"Diego Campo","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":152658,"name":"Juanchi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":33287,"name":"Cesar Gomez","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":37013,"name":"Fran Pérez","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":33146,"name":"Jesús Arribas","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0}],"confidence":0.023},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":30574,"name":"Aarón Alonso","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":30451,"name":"Rafael Núñez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.095},{"id":88442,"name":"Iñaki León","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.093},{"id":88448,"name":"Edu Llorente","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":88444,"name":"Jacobo Guzmán","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":88446,"name":"Sergio Gómez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.167},{"id":88445,"name":"Alberto Moreno","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":88450,"name":"Alejandro Toper","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":171851,"name":"Aimar Santiago","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":29093,"name":"Antonio Arcos","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":3925,"name":"Diego Morcillo","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":88441,"name":"José Manuel Currás","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.073},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":115568,"name":"David Alguacil","side":"home"},{"id":115574,"name":"Iván García","side":"home"},{"id":152659,"name":"Aarón González","side":"home"},{"id":123183,"name":"Adrián López","side":"home"},{"id":130821,"name":"Fer Ruiz","side":"home"},{"id":130577,"name":"Ale Galindo","side":"home"},{"id":121404,"name":"Diego Campo","side":"home"},{"id":152658,"name":"Juanchi","side":"home"},{"id":33287,"name":"Cesar Gomez","side":"home"},{"id":37013,"name":"Fran Pérez","side":"home"},{"id":33146,"name":"Jesús Arribas","side":"home"},{"id":153717,"name":"Adrián Tovar","side":"home"},{"id":37018,"name":"Álvaro Télis","side":"home"},{"id":130953,"name":"Borja Marchante","side":"home"},{"id":31594,"name":"Luis Martinez","side":"home"},{"id":115741,"name":"Miguel García","side":"home"},{"id":115759,"name":"Vanderson Silva","side":"home"},{"id":118772,"name":"Lucas Ricoy","side":"home"},{"id":217538,"name":"Diego  Diaz","side":"home"},{"id":113565,"name":"Alberto Lejarraga Rubio","side":"home"},{"id":31503,"name":"Pablo Rojo","side":"home"},{"id":129899,"name":"Toni Arranz","side":"home"},{"id":30574,"name":"Aarón Alonso","side":"away"},{"id":30451,"name":"Rafael Núñez","side":"away"},{"id":88442,"name":"Iñaki León","side":"away"},{"id":88448,"name":"Edu Llorente","side":"away"},{"id":88444,"name":"Jacobo Guzmán","side":"away"},{"id":88446,"name":"Sergio Gómez","side":"away"},{"id":88445,"name":"Alberto Moreno","side":"away"},{"id":88450,"name":"Alejandro Toper","side":"away"},{"id":171851,"name":"Aimar Santiago","side":"away"},{"id":29093,"name":"Antonio Arcos","side":"away"},{"id":3925,"name":"Diego Morcillo","side":"away"},{"id":88441,"name":"José Manuel Currás","side":"away"},{"id":88443,"name":"Alvaro Dominguez","side":"away"},{"id":88447,"name":"Alex Blanco","side":"away"},{"id":88449,"name":"Miguel L","side":"away"},{"id":216542,"name":"Jaime Calleja","side":"away"},{"id":98475,"name":"Alberto Trapero","side":"away"},{"id":120037,"name":"Marco Leiton Acros","side":"away"},{"id":122239,"name":"Benjamín Rafael Núñez","side":"away"},{"id":142677,"name":"Jaime Calleja Sánchez","side":"away"},{"id":35810,"name":"Pau Palacín","side":"away"},{"id":208718,"name":"Martins Kelvin","side":"away"},{"id":216538,"name":"Martins Ohenhen","side":"away"},{"id":28281,"name":"Javi Garrido","side":"away"},{"id":210271,"name":"Nico Lopez","side":"away"},{"id":208717,"name":"Daniel Jimenez Hernandez","side":"away"},{"id":216543,"name":"Dani Jiménez","side":"away"},{"id":210270,"name":"Dani  Jiménez","side":"away"},{"id":211146,"name":"Nicolás López Rubalcaba","side":"away"},{"id":115467,"name":"Javier Tapia","side":"away"},{"id":35603,"name":"Ivan Ramos","side":"away"},{"id":138584,"name":"Álex Blanco","side":"away"},{"id":35647,"name":"Josu Gallastegui","side":"away"},{"id":216540,"name":"Duque","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":33287,"name":"Cesar Gomez","side":"home","team":"S.S. Reyes","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":37013,"name":"Fran Pérez","side":"home","team":"S.S. Reyes","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":88450,"name":"Alejandro Toper","side":"away","team":"CD Coria","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":29093,"name":"Antonio Arcos","side":"away","team":"CD Coria","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":3438,"away":4967},"split":{"home":null,"away":null},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":3464,"name":"Manolo Sanlúcar","vs":null},"away":{"id":3131,"name":"Raimundo Rosa Nieto","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":915,"name":"Alemão","goals":2,"rank":1},{"id":122273,"name":"Aythami Perera","goals":2,"rank":2},{"id":33447,"name":"Chatún","goals":2,"rank":3},{"id":28406,"name":"Chupete","goals":2,"rank":4},{"id":31559,"name":"Diego Diaz","goals":2,"rank":5},{"id":9493,"name":"Ezequiel Ponce","goals":2,"rank":6},{"id":114487,"name":"Gorka Santamaría","goals":2,"rank":7},{"id":32378,"name":"Khalid Noureddine","goals":2,"rank":8},{"id":28223,"name":"Kirian Rodríguez","goals":2,"rank":9},{"id":13849,"name":"Pau Sans","goals":2,"rank":10},{"id":33444,"name":"Abel Conejo","goals":1,"rank":11},{"id":1051,"name":"Abel Ruíz","goals":1,"rank":12},{"id":31635,"name":"Adri Carrión","goals":1,"rank":13},{"id":153700,"name":"Agustín Murillo","goals":1,"rank":14},{"id":5144,"name":"Alassane Diatta","goals":1,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Round 1","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":null,"form":{"home":{"matches":5,"ppg":0.6,"record":"1-0-4","goals_for":1.2,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWLL","venue_ppg":1},"away":{"matches":4,"ppg":1,"record":"1-1-2","goals_for":1,"goals_against":2.25,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWD"}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"S.S. Reyes report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Coria report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.023,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.977,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"S.S. Reyes have taken 0.60 points a game from their last 5 (1W 0D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0, and 1.00 a game at home.","evidence":{"matches":5,"ppg":0.6,"record":"1-0-4","goals_for":1.2,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWLL","venue_ppg":1},"strength":0.5,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Coria have taken 1.00 points a game from their last 4 (1W 1D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3.","evidence":{"matches":4,"ppg":1,"record":"1-1-2","goals_for":1,"goals_against":2.25,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWD"},"strength":0.233,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manolo Sanlúcar is 5 games into the job at S.S. Reyes. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Manolo Sanlúcar","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":76,"ppm":0.8,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.12,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1}]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Raimundo Rosa Nieto is 6 games into the job at CD Coria, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Raimundo Rosa Nieto","matches_in_charge":6,"tenure_days":93,"ppm":2.17,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":2.17,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"S.S. Reyes have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"CD Coria have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.00877246442512717 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0,"defence":0,"effective_matches":0,"shrunk":1},"away":{"attack":-0.001,"defence":-0.001,"effective_matches":0,"shrunk":1},"sample":0.00877246442512717,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.","evidence":{"home_matches":5,"away_matches":4},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for S.S. Reyes's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":5},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for CD Coria's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":4},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":-0.07034206461187496},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.overround","section":"§7.3","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The bookmakers are taking a 9.7% cut on this match. The bigger their cut, the further out a price has to be before it is worth backing.","evidence":{"overround":1.0969,"margin_pct":9.69,"devig_method":"shin","books_quoting":3},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The line has barely moved since it opened.","evidence":{"moves":[{"outcome":"HOME","move_pct":0,"direction":null},{"outcome":"DRAW","move_pct":0,"direction":null},{"outcome":"AWAY","move_pct":0,"direction":null}]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.sharp_reference","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The sharp book makes HOME 3.1 points less likely than the wider market does.","evidence":{"sharp":{"HOME":0.3394,"DRAW":0.2914,"AWAY":0.3692},"consensus":{"HOME":0.3706,"DRAW":0.2809,"AWAY":0.3486},"largest_gap":{"outcome":"HOME","points":-3.11},"sharp_overround":1.1438},"strength":0.389,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.prediction_market","section":"§7.2","tier":7,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No prediction-market prices for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"markets":[{"market":"1x2","line":null,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.3462,"DRAW":0.2692,"AWAY":0.3846},"book":{"HOME":0.3706,"DRAW":0.2809,"AWAY":0.3486},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.6,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"DRAW":{"odds":3.6,"bookmaker":"dafabet"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.95,"bookmaker":"dafabet"}},"overround":1.0969,"books":8,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.3394,"DRAW":0.2914,"AWAY":0.3692}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.3394,"DRAW":0.2914,"AWAY":0.3692}}},{"market":"double_chance","line":null,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"12":0.7308,"1X":0.6154,"X2":0.6538},"book":{"12":0.7191,"1X":0.6514,"X2":0.6294},"best":{"12":{"odds":1.36,"bookmaker":"William Hill"},"1X":{"odds":1.44,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"X2":{"odds":1.45,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0597,"books":4,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"12":0.7086,"1X":0.6308,"X2":0.6606}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"12":0.7086,"1X":0.6308,"X2":0.6606}}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","line":null,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.4738,"AWAY":0.5262},"book":{"HOME":0.5153,"AWAY":0.4847},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.75,"bookmaker":"888Sport"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.1,"bookmaker":"Unibet"}},"overround":1.0822,"books":11,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.479,"AWAY":0.521}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.479,"AWAY":0.521}}},{"market":"btts","line":null,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"yes":0.6063,"no":0.3937},"book":{"yes":0.5241,"no":0.4759},"best":{"yes":{"odds":1.8,"bookmaker":"Interwetten"},"no":{"odds":2,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0788,"books":15,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"yes":0.5278,"no":0.4722}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"yes":0.5278,"no":0.4722}}},{"market":"over_under_05","line":0.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"over":0.9356,"under":0.0644},"book":{"over":0.9222,"under":0.0778},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.05,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":9,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0779,"books":3,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.9206,"under":0.0794}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.9206,"under":0.0794}}},{"market":"over_under_15","line":1.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"over":0.8052,"under":0.1948},"book":{"over":0.7211,"under":0.2789},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.35,"bookmaker":"BetVictor"},"under":{"odds":3.4,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0933,"books":4,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.7198,"under":0.2802}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.7198,"under":0.2802}}},{"market":"over_under_25","line":2.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"over":0.5654,"under":0.4346},"book":{"over":0.4604,"under":0.5396},"best":{"over":{"odds":2.05,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"under":{"odds":1.8,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0781,"books":5,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.4549,"under":0.5451}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.4549,"under":0.5451}}},{"market":"over_under_35","line":3.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"over":0.3414,"under":0.6586},"book":{"over":0.2523,"under":0.7477},"best":{"over":{"odds":3.5,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":1.29,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0787,"books":3,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.2553,"under":0.7447}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.2553,"under":0.7447}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.0616,"AWAY":0.9384},"book":{"HOME":0.055,"AWAY":0.945},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":10,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.01,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0901,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.057,"AWAY":0.943}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.0689,"AWAY":0.9311},"book":{"HOME":0.0608,"AWAY":0.9392},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":8.8,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.008,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.1057,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.0619,"AWAY":0.9381}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.75,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.1203,"AWAY":0.8797},"book":{"HOME":0.1256,"AWAY":0.8744},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":6.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.115,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0765,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1279,"AWAY":0.8721}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.1664,"AWAY":0.8336},"book":{"HOME":0.1635,"AWAY":0.8365},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":5.05,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.18,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0841,"books":3,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1825,"AWAY":0.8175}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.25,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.1828,"AWAY":0.8172},"book":{"HOME":0.1879,"AWAY":0.8121},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":4.665,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.21,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0778,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.2045,"AWAY":0.7955}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.2029,"AWAY":0.7971},"book":{"HOME":0.2067,"AWAY":0.7933},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":4.2,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.085,"books":3,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.2337,"AWAY":0.7663}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.75,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.2816,"AWAY":0.7184},"book":{"HOME":0.3047,"AWAY":0.6953},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":3.005,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.4,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0776,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.3303,"AWAY":0.6697}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.3462,"AWAY":0.6538},"book":{"HOME":0.3815,"AWAY":0.6185},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.5,"bookmaker":"888Sport"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.58,"bookmaker":"Unibet"}},"overround":1.0794,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.3909,"AWAY":0.6091}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.25,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.4001,"AWAY":0.5999},"book":{"HOME":0.4525,"AWAY":0.5475},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.153,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.75,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0764,"books":3,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.4683,"AWAY":0.5317}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.4738,"AWAY":0.5262},"book":{"HOME":0.5516,"AWAY":0.4484},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.769,"bookmaker":"10bet"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.1,"bookmaker":"Interwetten"}},"overround":1.0781,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.5454,"AWAY":0.4546}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.25,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.5556,"AWAY":0.4444},"book":{"HOME":0.6014,"AWAY":0.3986},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.607,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.375,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0688,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.6229,"AWAY":0.3771}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.6154,"AWAY":0.3846},"book":{"HOME":0.6718,"AWAY":0.3282},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.425,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.75,"bookmaker":"Interwetten"}},"overround":1.0708,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.6718,"AWAY":0.3282}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.75,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.6806,"AWAY":0.3194},"book":{"HOME":0.7508,"AWAY":0.2492},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.275,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":3.55,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0756,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.744,"AWAY":0.256}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.7611,"AWAY":0.2389},"book":{"HOME":0.8442,"AWAY":0.1558},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.15,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0785,"books":3,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8387,"AWAY":0.1613}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1.25,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.7864,"AWAY":0.2136},"book":{"HOME":0.8424,"AWAY":0.1576},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.15,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0708,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8571,"AWAY":0.1429}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1.5,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.8069,"AWAY":0.1931},"book":{"HOME":0.8568,"AWAY":0.1432},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.125,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":6,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0798,"books":3,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8696,"AWAY":0.1304}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1.75,"confidence":0.165,"model":{"HOME":0.8574,"AWAY":0.1426},"book":{"HOME":0.9211,"AWAY":0.0789},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.027,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":7.6,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.1053,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.9224,"AWAY":0.0776}}},{"market":"corners_1x2","line":null,"confidence":0.132,"model":{"HOME":0.1346,"DRAW":0.0619,"AWAY":0.8035},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"red_card","line":null,"confidence":0.116,"model":{"yes":0.2624,"no":0.7376},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null}],"candidates":[{"market":"over_under_25","outcome":"over","line":2.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.5654,"book_prob":0.4604,"edge":0.1049,"shrunk_edge":0.0892,"odds":2.05,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.05},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.04},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":2},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.98},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.98}],"kelly":0.0379,"confidence":0.165,"family":"goals"},{"market":"over_under_35","outcome":"over","line":3.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.3414,"book_prob":0.2523,"edge":0.0891,"shrunk_edge":0.0757,"odds":3.5,"bookmaker":"betfair","prices":[{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":3.5},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.42},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":3.3}],"kelly":0.0195,"confidence":0.165,"family":"goals"},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.8052,"book_prob":0.7211,"edge":0.0841,"shrunk_edge":0.0715,"odds":1.35,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","prices":[{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.35},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.3},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.3},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.29}],"kelly":0.0621,"confidence":0.165,"family":"goals"},{"market":"btts","outcome":"yes","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.6063,"book_prob":0.5241,"edge":0.0822,"shrunk_edge":0.0699,"odds":1.8,"bookmaker":"Interwetten","prices":[{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.8},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.8},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.8},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.8},{"slug":"betano","book":"Betano","odds":1.78},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.78},{"slug":"betway","book":"Betway","odds":1.775},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.77},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":1.77},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":1.77},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":1.77},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":1.75}],"kelly":0.0285,"confidence":0.165,"family":"goals"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1,"push":"full","model_prob":0.2389,"book_prob":0.1558,"edge":0.0831,"shrunk_edge":0.0561,"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":5.5},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":4.9},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":4.9}],"kelly":0.0174,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0,"push":"full","model_prob":0.5262,"book_prob":0.4484,"edge":0.0779,"shrunk_edge":0.0526,"odds":2.1,"bookmaker":"Interwetten","prices":[{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":2.1},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.1},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":2.1},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.06},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.9}],"kelly":0.0239,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.3194,"book_prob":0.2492,"edge":0.0703,"shrunk_edge":0.0474,"odds":3.55,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.55},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.395}],"kelly":0.0131,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.1426,"book_prob":0.0789,"edge":0.0637,"shrunk_edge":0.043,"odds":7.6,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":7.6}],"kelly":0.0032,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.3846,"book_prob":0.3282,"edge":0.0564,"shrunk_edge":0.038,"odds":2.75,"bookmaker":"Interwetten","prices":[{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":2.75},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.75}],"kelly":0.0082,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.2136,"book_prob":0.1576,"edge":0.056,"shrunk_edge":0.0378,"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":5.5},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":4.78}],"kelly":0.0097,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.5999,"book_prob":0.5475,"edge":0.0524,"shrunk_edge":0.0354,"odds":1.75,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.75},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.75},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.607}],"kelly":0.0166,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.1931,"book_prob":0.1432,"edge":0.05,"shrunk_edge":0.0337,"odds":6,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":6},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":5.2},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":5.1}],"kelly":0.0079,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.4444,"book_prob":0.3986,"edge":0.0458,"shrunk_edge":0.0309,"odds":2.375,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.375},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.221}],"kelly":0.0101,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"AWAY","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.5262,"book_prob":0.4847,"edge":0.0415,"shrunk_edge":0.0305,"odds":2.1,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":2.1},{"slug":"betway","book":"Betway","odds":2.1},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.1},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":2.1},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":2.09},{"slug":"betano","book":"Betano","odds":2.07},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":2.05},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":2.05},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":2.05},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":2},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":2}],"kelly":0.0239,"confidence":0.165,"family":"result"},{"market":"1x2","outcome":"AWAY","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.3846,"book_prob":0.3486,"edge":0.036,"shrunk_edge":0.0265,"odds":2.95,"bookmaker":"dafabet","prices":[{"slug":"dafabet","book":"dafabet","odds":2.95},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":2.8},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.75},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":2.7},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.65},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":2.62},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":2.6},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":2.39}],"kelly":0.0172,"confidence":0.165,"family":"result"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.6538,"book_prob":0.6185,"edge":0.0353,"shrunk_edge":0.0238,"odds":1.58,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.58},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.575},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.55},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":1.444},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.444}],"kelly":0.0142,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.6538,"book_prob":0.6294,"edge":0.0243,"shrunk_edge":0.0179,"odds":1.45,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.45},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.44},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.44},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.44}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.165,"family":"result"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.7184,"book_prob":0.6953,"edge":0.023,"shrunk_edge":0.0156,"odds":1.4,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.4},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.311}],"kelly":0.0036,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"over_under_05","outcome":"over","line":0.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.9356,"book_prob":0.9222,"edge":0.0134,"shrunk_edge":0.0113,"odds":1.05,"bookmaker":"betfair","prices":[{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.05},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.04},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.02}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.165,"family":"goals"},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.7308,"book_prob":0.7191,"edge":0.0117,"shrunk_edge":0.0086,"odds":1.36,"bookmaker":"William Hill","prices":[{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.36},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.33},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.32},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.25}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.165,"family":"result"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":-2,"push":"full","model_prob":0.0689,"book_prob":0.0608,"edge":0.0081,"shrunk_edge":0.0054,"odds":8.8,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":8.8}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"HOME","line":-2.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.0616,"book_prob":0.055,"edge":0.0067,"shrunk_edge":0.0045,"odds":10,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":10}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.8797,"book_prob":0.8744,"edge":0.0053,"shrunk_edge":0.0036,"odds":1.115,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.115},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.069}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.8172,"book_prob":0.8121,"edge":0.005,"shrunk_edge":0.0034,"odds":1.21,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.21},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.128}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1,"push":"full","model_prob":0.7971,"book_prob":0.7933,"edge":0.0038,"shrunk_edge":0.0026,"odds":1.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.25},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.154}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.165,"family":"handicap"}],"verdicts":[{"candidate":{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1,"push":"full","model_prob":0.7933,"book_prob":0.7933,"edge":0,"shrunk_edge":0,"odds":1.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.25},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.154}],"kelly":0,"confidence":1,"family":"handicap"},"lean":false,"narrative":"This Copa del Rey tie swings toward the visitors because their recent form tells a cleaner story than their opponents. The hosts stumble into the fixture having dropped four of their last five matches, struggling to keep things tight at the back when opposing attacks build momentum. Meanwhile, the visiting team maintains a sharper shape on the pitch, despite losing two of their last four outings. The tactical battle sees a flat 4-3-3 shape try to unlock a disciplined 4-2-3-1 setup. Expect the away side to dictate the tempo through the middle zones and create cleaner openings in the final third. The defensive frailties of the home team will ultimately decide the outcome.","why":"The visitors cover the margin because their midfield structure limits clean looks while forcing turnovers in dangerous areas. That defensive discipline frustrates the hosts, whose recent run of four defeats from five shows they crack under sustained pressure. The call fails if the home goalkeeper produces an exceptional display and stops every single shot that comes his way, at odds of 1.25.","drivers":[{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manolo Sanlúcar is 5 games into the job at S.S. Reyes. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Manolo Sanlúcar","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":76,"ppm":0.8,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.12,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.023,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.977,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"S.S. Reyes have taken 0.60 points a game from their last 5 (1W 0D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0, and 1.00 a game at home.","evidence":{"matches":5,"ppg":0.6,"record":"1-0-4","goals_for":1.2,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWLL","venue_ppg":1},"strength":0.5,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Raimundo Rosa Nieto is 6 games into the job at CD Coria, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Raimundo Rosa Nieto","matches_in_charge":6,"tenure_days":93,"ppm":2.17,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":2.17,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.sharp_reference","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The sharp book makes HOME 3.1 points less likely than the wider market does.","evidence":{"sharp":{"HOME":0.3394,"DRAW":0.2914,"AWAY":0.3692},"consensus":{"HOME":0.3706,"DRAW":0.2809,"AWAY":0.3486},"largest_gap":{"outcome":"HOME","points":-3.11},"sharp_overround":1.1438},"strength":0.389,"moves":[]}]}],"pass_reason":null,"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6801,"created_at":"2026-10-28T16:05:18Z","event":{"id":606046,"event_date":"2026-10-29T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":3438,"home_team":"S.S. Reyes","away_team_id":4967,"away_team":"CD Coria","league_id":41,"league_name":"Copa del Rey"},"markets":{"match_result":{"prob_home":37.3,"prob_draw":28.3,"prob_away":34.4,"predicted":"H"},"expected_goals":{"home":null,"away":null},"over_under":{"prob_over_15":70.2,"prob_over_25":46.3,"prob_over_35":26.5},"btts":{"prob_yes":52.3},"score":{"most_likely":null},"draw_no_bet":{"prob_home":52},"corners":null},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":37.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3729,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793281234,"report":{"fetched_at":1793319511,"ht":[0,1],"attendance":null,"highlights":[],"events":[{"t":"card","minute":14,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"A. Tovar","player_id":153717,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"card","minute":26,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"Juanchi","player_id":152658,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"goal","minute":34,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"A. Toper","player_id":88450,"assist":null,"kind":"penalty","score":[0,1]},{"t":"card","minute":44,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"E. Llorente","player_id":88448,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"sub","minute":56,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"P. Rojo","in_id":31503,"out":"I. García","out_id":115574},{"t":"sub","minute":57,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"J. Arribas","in_id":33146,"out":"J. Rubio","out_id":224067},{"t":"sub","minute":57,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"L. Ricoy","in_id":118772,"out":"Juanchi","out_id":152658},{"t":"sub","minute":59,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"J. Tapia","in_id":115467,"out":"E. Llorente","out_id":88448},{"t":"sub","minute":60,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"R. Núñez","in_id":30451,"out":"A. Toper","out_id":88450},{"t":"goal","minute":63,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"D. l. L. D. l. Llave","player_id":137934,"assist":"D. Campo","kind":"regular","score":[1,1]},{"t":"sub","minute":69,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"J. Guzmán","in_id":88444,"out":"A. Arcos","out_id":29093},{"t":"sub","minute":70,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"A. Moreno","in_id":88445,"out":"S. Gómez","out_id":88446},{"t":"sub","minute":72,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"T. Arranz","in_id":129899,"out":"D. Campo","out_id":121404},{"t":"sub","minute":73,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"F. Izaguirre","in_id":130821,"out":"C. Gómez","out_id":33287},{"t":"sub","minute":83,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"J. Gallastegui","in_id":35647,"out":"M. L. Acros","out_id":120037},{"t":"sub","minute":91,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"M. Sanz","in_id":224068,"out":"A. Galindo","out_id":130577},{"t":"sub","minute":91,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"P. Palacín","in_id":35810,"out":"D. Morcillo","out_id":3925},{"t":"card","minute":93,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"A. López","player_id":123183,"card":"red","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"card","minute":100,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"Á. Blanco","player_id":138584,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"card","minute":103,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"F. Izaguirre","player_id":130821,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"card","minute":108,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"J. Guzmán","player_id":88444,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"goal","minute":119,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"R. Núñez","player_id":30451,"assist":null,"kind":"regular","score":[1,2]},{"t":"card","minute":120,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"R. Núñez","player_id":30451,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"}],"players":[{"id":153717,"team_id":3438,"minutes":120,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":137934,"team_id":3438,"minutes":120,"rating":null,"goals":1,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":123183,"team_id":3438,"minutes":93,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":1,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":130577,"team_id":3438,"minutes":91,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":33287,"team_id":3438,"minutes":73,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":121404,"team_id":3438,"minutes":72,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":1,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":31503,"team_id":3438,"minutes":64,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":118772,"team_id":3438,"minutes":63,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":33146,"team_id":3438,"minutes":63,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":224067,"team_id":3438,"minutes":57,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":152658,"team_id":3438,"minutes":57,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":115574,"team_id":3438,"minutes":56,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":129899,"team_id":3438,"minutes":48,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":130821,"team_id":3438,"minutes":47,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":224068,"team_id":3438,"minutes":29,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":115568,"team_id":3438,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":115551,"team_id":3438,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":217538,"team_id":3438,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":113565,"team_id":3438,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":130953,"team_id":3438,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":37018,"team_id":3438,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":115741,"team_id":3438,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":224069,"team_id":3438,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":138584,"team_id":4967,"minutes":120,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":3925,"team_id":4967,"minutes":91,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":120037,"team_id":4967,"minutes":83,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":88446,"team_id":4967,"minutes":70,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":29093,"team_id":4967,"minutes":69,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":115467,"team_id":4967,"minutes":61,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":88450,"team_id":4967,"minutes":60,"rating":null,"goals":1,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":30451,"team_id":4967,"minutes":60,"rating":null,"goals":1,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":88448,"team_id":4967,"minutes":59,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":88444,"team_id":4967,"minutes":51,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":88445,"team_id":4967,"minutes":50,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":35647,"team_id":4967,"minutes":37,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":35810,"team_id":4967,"minutes":29,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":35603,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":88441,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":216542,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":88442,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":28281,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":88443,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":122239,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":171851,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":30574,"team_id":4967,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0}],"stats":{"home":{"possession":null,"shots":null,"on_target":null,"corners":null,"fouls":null,"yellow":3,"red":1,"big_chances":null,"passes":null,"pass_pct":null,"offsides":null,"saves":null},"away":{"possession":null,"shots":null,"on_target":null,"corners":null,"fouls":null,"yellow":4,"red":0,"big_chances":null,"passes":null,"pass_pct":null,"offsides":null,"saves":null}},"lineups":{"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":217538,"name":"Diego  Diaz","position":"G","number":31,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":153717,"name":"Adrián Tovar","position":"D","number":2,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":115551,"name":"Aarón González","position":null,"number":5,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":137934,"name":"De la Llave De la Llave","position":"M","number":4,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":123183,"name":"Adrián López","position":"D","number":3,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":152658,"name":"Juanchi","position":"M","number":14,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":130577,"name":"Ale Galindo","position":"M","number":8,"captain":true,"starting":true},{"id":224067,"name":"Javi Rubio","position":"M","number":21,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":115574,"name":"Iván García","position":"D","number":20,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":33287,"name":"Cesar Gomez","position":"F","number":11,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":121404,"name":"Diego Campo","position":"M","number":23,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":31503,"name":"Pablo Rojo","position":"M","number":16,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":33146,"name":"Jesús Arribas","position":"F","number":19,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":118772,"name":"Lucas Ricoy","position":"F","number":9,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":129899,"name":"Toni Arranz","position":"M","number":6,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":130821,"name":"Fer Ruiz","position":"M","number":17,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":224068,"name":"Marcos Sanz","position":"M","number":30,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":115568,"name":"David Alguacil","position":"G","number":1,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":113565,"name":"Alberto Lejarraga Rubio","position":"G","number":13,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":130953,"name":"Borja Marchante","position":"D","number":22,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":37018,"name":"Álvaro Télis","position":"D","number":18,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":115741,"name":"Miguel García","position":"F","number":7,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":224069,"name":"Gonzalo García","position":null,"number":28,"captain":false,"starting":false}]},"away":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":30574,"name":"Aarón Alonso","position":"G","number":1,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":88441,"name":"José Manuel Currás","position":"D","number":2,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":216542,"name":"Jaime Calleja","position":"D","number":4,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":88442,"name":"Iñaki León","position":"D","number":20,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":120037,"name":"Marco Leiton Acros","position":"D","number":21,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":138584,"name":"Álex Blanco","position":"D","number":17,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":88448,"name":"Edu Llorente","position":"M","number":8,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":88446,"name":"Sergio Gómez","position":"M","number":10,"captain":true,"starting":true},{"id":29093,"name":"Antonio Arcos","position":"F","number":19,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":3925,"name":"Diego Morcillo","position":"F","number":24,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":88450,"name":"Alejandro Toper","position":"F","number":11,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":115467,"name":"Javier Tapia","position":"M","number":6,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":30451,"name":"Rafael Núñez","position":"M","number":15,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":88444,"name":"Jacobo Guzmán","position":"D","number":3,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":88445,"name":"Alberto Moreno","position":"M","number":14,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":35647,"name":"Josu Gallastegui","position":"M","number":18,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":35810,"name":"Pau Palacín","position":"F","number":9,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":28281,"name":"Javi Garrido","position":"G","number":13,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":88443,"name":"Alvaro Domínguez","position":"D","number":23,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":122239,"name":"Benjamín Rafael Núñez","position":"D","number":22,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":171851,"name":"Aimar Santiago","position":"M","number":16,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":35603,"name":"Ivan Ramos","position":"M","number":7,"captain":false,"starting":false}]}}},"colors":{"home":"#a11e1c","away":"#42b7f0"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1,"odds":1.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365","model_prob":0.7933190680781839,"narrative":"This Copa del Rey tie swings toward the visitors because their recent form tells a cleaner story than their opponents. The hosts stumble into the fixture having dropped four of their last five matches, struggling to keep things tight at the back when opposing attacks build momentum. Meanwhile, the visiting team maintains a sharper shape on the pitch, despite losing two of their last four outings. The tactical battle sees a flat 4-3-3 shape try to unlock a disciplined 4-2-3-1 setup. Expect the away side to dictate the tempo through the middle zones and create cleaner openings in the final third. The defensive frailties of the home team will ultimately decide the outcome.","why":"The visitors cover the margin because their midfield structure limits clean looks while forcing turnovers in dangerous areas. That defensive discipline frustrates the hosts, whose recent run of four defeats from five shows they crack under sustained pressure. The call fails if the home goalkeeper produces an exceptional display and stops every single shot that comes his way, at odds of 1.25.","result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":"as we read it","expected_total":2.95,"actual_total":3,"market":"held","opening_odds":1.25,"closing_odds":1.25,"line":"The game went almost exactly as we read it.","decided":[]}}]}