{"id":606032,"league_id":41,"league":"Copa del Rey","kickoff":1793215800,"home":"Deportiva Minera","away":"FC Cartagena","home_id":5029,"away_id":1402,"venue_id":3163,"rank":6,"status":"cancelled","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.197,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.43,1.51],"read":{"text":"FC Cartagena to edge it","side":"away"},"pass":"No call on Deportiva Minera against FC Cartagena. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."}],"lambda_home":1.4340770580898967,"lambda_away":1.5100488204764393,"corner_rate":11.08,"card_rate":0.307,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.047,"home":{"formation":"4-1-4-1","players":[{"id":32639,"name":"Oleg Oliynyk","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.021},{"id":113523,"name":"Pipo","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.426},{"id":33294,"name":"Adrián Crespo","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":33425,"name":"Aimar Olarra","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":31554,"name":"Ángel Cano","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":129591,"name":"Aaron Piñan","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":37260,"name":"Alberto Vaquero","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":32400,"name":"Carlos Ramírez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":32010,"name":"David Ramos","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":143803,"name":"Diego Ceballos","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0},{"id":31746,"name":"Boris Kouassi","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0}],"confidence":0.047},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":30318,"name":"Jhafets Reyes","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.305},{"id":30320,"name":"Nacho Martínez","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.351},{"id":31572,"name":"Imanol Baz","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.278},{"id":31577,"name":"Pablo De Blasis","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.211},{"id":31570,"name":"Daniel Perejón","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.222},{"id":40039,"name":"Grégory Kelo","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":35813,"name":"Javier Ajenjo Hyjek","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":30346,"name":"Toni Villa","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":88648,"name":"Nenad Krivokapić","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":65784,"name":"Rubén Richarte Lacida","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":32007,"name":"Marcelo dos Santos","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":31578,"name":"Lucho García","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":31579,"name":"Marc Jurado","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":31526,"name":"Boston Billups","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":36029,"name":"Iker Abellán","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":63892,"name":"Luca Lohr","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":36031,"name":"Rubén Serrano","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":63889,"name":"Abdel Lah Mohamed","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":63891,"name":"Adrián Corral","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":88649,"name":"Amet Korça","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":36027,"name":"Benito Ramírez","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":36026,"name":"Jean Jules Mvondo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":63890,"name":"Pablo Clavería","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.177},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":32639,"name":"Oleg Oliynyk","side":"home"},{"id":113523,"name":"Pipo","side":"home"},{"id":33294,"name":"Adrián Crespo","side":"home"},{"id":33425,"name":"Aimar Olarra","side":"home"},{"id":31554,"name":"Ángel Cano","side":"home"},{"id":129591,"name":"Aaron Piñan","side":"home"},{"id":37260,"name":"Alberto Vaquero","side":"home"},{"id":32400,"name":"Carlos Ramírez","side":"home"},{"id":32010,"name":"David Ramos","side":"home"},{"id":143803,"name":"Diego Ceballos","side":"home"},{"id":31746,"name":"Boris Kouassi","side":"home"},{"id":32563,"name":"Morros","side":"home"},{"id":31568,"name":"Maikel Villajos","side":"home"},{"id":122163,"name":"Samuel Casado","side":"home"},{"id":114425,"name":"Mohamed Kamal","side":"home"},{"id":30329,"name":"Lázaro Rubio","side":"home"},{"id":122268,"name":"Ismael Estévez","side":"home"},{"id":31423,"name":"Juan Carlos","side":"home"},{"id":30318,"name":"Jhafets Reyes","side":"away"},{"id":30320,"name":"Nacho Martínez","side":"away"},{"id":31572,"name":"Imanol Baz","side":"away"},{"id":31577,"name":"Pablo De Blasis","side":"away"},{"id":31570,"name":"Daniel Perejón","side":"away"},{"id":40039,"name":"Grégory Kelo","side":"away"},{"id":35813,"name":"Javier Ajenjo Hyjek","side":"away"},{"id":30346,"name":"Toni Villa","side":"away"},{"id":88648,"name":"Nenad Krivokapić","side":"away"},{"id":65784,"name":"Rubén Richarte Lacida","side":"away"},{"id":32007,"name":"Marcelo dos Santos","side":"away"},{"id":31578,"name":"Lucho García","side":"away"},{"id":31579,"name":"Marc Jurado","side":"away"},{"id":31526,"name":"Boston Billups","side":"away"},{"id":36029,"name":"Iker Abellán","side":"away"},{"id":63892,"name":"Luca Lohr","side":"away"},{"id":36031,"name":"Rubén Serrano","side":"away"},{"id":63889,"name":"Abdel Lah Mohamed","side":"away"},{"id":63891,"name":"Adrián Corral","side":"away"},{"id":88649,"name":"Amet Korça","side":"away"},{"id":36027,"name":"Benito Ramírez","side":"away"},{"id":36026,"name":"Jean Jules Mvondo","side":"away"},{"id":63890,"name":"Pablo Clavería","side":"away"},{"id":36034,"name":"José Marín","side":"away"},{"id":36035,"name":"Gabri Jimeno","side":"away"},{"id":30500,"name":"Marco Carrascal","side":"away"},{"id":213617,"name":"Kelvin Lamptey-Mills","side":"away"},{"id":32579,"name":"Ibán","side":"away"},{"id":36367,"name":"Iban Ribeiro","side":"away"},{"id":93402,"name":"Alex Guti","side":"away"},{"id":30287,"name":"Marcos Moreno","side":"away"},{"id":33385,"name":"Raúl Dacosta","side":"away"},{"id":36028,"name":"Sergio Castellano","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":113523,"name":"Pipo","side":"home","team":"Deportiva Minera","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":31746,"name":"Boris Kouassi","side":"home","team":"Deportiva Minera","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":32007,"name":"Marcelo dos Santos","side":"away","team":"FC Cartagena","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":5029,"away":1402},"split":{"home":null,"away":null},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":902,"name":"Héctor Sandroni","vs":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1787511600,"score":"1-1","result":"D"}}},"away":{"id":827,"name":"Iñigo Vélez","vs":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1787511600,"score":"1-1","result":"D"}}}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":915,"name":"Alemão","goals":2,"rank":1},{"id":122273,"name":"Aythami Perera","goals":2,"rank":2},{"id":33447,"name":"Chatún","goals":2,"rank":3},{"id":28406,"name":"Chupete","goals":2,"rank":4},{"id":31559,"name":"Diego Diaz","goals":2,"rank":5},{"id":9493,"name":"Ezequiel Ponce","goals":2,"rank":6},{"id":114487,"name":"Gorka Santamaría","goals":2,"rank":7},{"id":32378,"name":"Khalid Noureddine","goals":2,"rank":8},{"id":28223,"name":"Kirian Rodríguez","goals":2,"rank":9},{"id":13849,"name":"Pau Sans","goals":2,"rank":10},{"id":33444,"name":"Abel Conejo","goals":1,"rank":11},{"id":1051,"name":"Abel Ruíz","goals":1,"rank":12},{"id":31635,"name":"Adri Carrión","goals":1,"rank":13},{"id":153700,"name":"Agustín Murillo","goals":1,"rank":14},{"id":5144,"name":"Alassane Diatta","goals":1,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Round 1","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":1,"home_wins":0,"draws":1,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"avg_total_goals":2,"home_win_rate":0,"away_win_rate":0,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Deportiva Minera","date":"2026-08-23T19:00:00+00:00","home":"FC Cartagena","score":"1-1","event_id":600954,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":5029,"home_team_id":1402}]},"standings":null,"form":{"home":{"matches":5,"ppg":1.6,"record":"2-2-1","goals_for":1.8,"goals_against":1.6,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"WDLWD","venue_ppg":1.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"LDLWLD","venue_ppg":0.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportiva Minera report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Cartagena report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.047,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.953,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Héctor Sandroni is 3 games into the job at Deportiva Minera. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Héctor Sandroni","matches_in_charge":3,"tenure_days":89,"ppm":1.67,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.25,"after_ppm":1.67,"delta":null}},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3.2}]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Iñigo Vélez has 50 matches in charge at FC Cartagena, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Iñigo Vélez","matches_in_charge":50,"tenure_days":802,"ppm":0.62,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":0.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"Deportiva Minera have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"FC Cartagena have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.033779965570130084 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.001,"defence":-0.003,"effective_matches":0,"shrunk":1},"away":{"attack":-0.009,"defence":0.019,"effective_matches":0.2,"shrunk":0.97},"sample":0.033779965570130084,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":5,"possession":40,"shots":null,"xg_per_shot":null,"corners":0,"corners_per_shot":null,"finishing_vs_xg":null},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.9,"shots":9.4,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.406,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.16},"possession_gap":-4.9,"sample":5,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for Deportiva Minera's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":5},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Cartagena are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.16,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":-0.07030700492422466},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6745,"created_at":"2026-10-27T20:05:20Z","event":{"id":606032,"event_date":"2026-10-28T19:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":5029,"home_team":"Deportiva Minera","away_team_id":1402,"away_team":"FC Cartagena","league_id":41,"league_name":"Copa del Rey"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":47.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4748,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793188732,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#c01a10","away":"#8d0f4b"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Angel Celdran","city":"Cartagena","capacity":null},"pulled":[],"published":[]}