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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ascoli have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.36,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Palermo are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.18,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"54 yellow cards in this referee's last 12 games, where 48 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds. — though 12 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":12,"yellows_per_match":4.5,"reds_per_match":0.5,"league_yellows_per_match":4,"league_reds_per_match":0.186,"yellow_ratio":1.13,"red_ratio":2.69,"sample":12,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 525 km for Palermo.","evidence":{"travel_km":525},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8,"temperature_c":8,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.06917920135805793},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6922,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":605700,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":3889,"home_team":"Ascoli","away_team_id":1393,"away_team":"Palermo","league_id":100,"league_name":"Serie B"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":39.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3927,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793991560,"verdicts":[{"narrative":null,"drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Palermo are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.083,"combined_importance":0.141,"players":[{"player":"Antonio Palumbo","role":"ATT","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0.083,"importance":0.09,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Mattia Bani","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.04,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Niccolò Pierozzi","role":"MID","reason":"Dislocated Shoulder","goal_share":0,"importance":0.011,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.353,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ascoli average 17 points more possession than Palermo, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Ascoli work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":63.7,"shots":11.5,"xg_per_shot":0.114,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.493,"finishing_vs_xg":0.36},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.6,"shots":18.1,"xg_per_shot":0.133,"corners":3.6,"corners_per_shot":0.197,"finishing_vs_xg":0.18},"possession_gap":17.1},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":3.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed. Palermo have made three changes from the side expected, with Andrea Bozzolan, Filippo Ranocchia and Gabriel Strefezza out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":1,"out":["Samuele Damiani"],"in":["Gennaro Acampora"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Andrea Bozzolan","Filippo Ranocchia","Gabriel Strefezza"],"in":["Nahuel Estévez","Jacopo Segre","Hernani"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Francesco Tomei is 11 games into the job at Ascoli, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Francesco Tomei","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":90,"ppm":1.73,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.1,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"live_minute":24,"colors":{"home":"#ce111d","away":"#e74b73"},"venue":{"name":"Cino e Lillo Del Duca","city":"Ascoli Piceno","capacity":12461},"pulled":[],"published":[]}