{"id": 605542, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Pisa", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.33, "record": "2-2-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDLWDL", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 1.5, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 1.33}, "home": {"ppg": 2.67, "record": "5-1-0", "streak": "unbeaten 6", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WWWWDW", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 0.67}}, "home": "AS Monaco", "pass": "No call on AS Monaco against Pisa. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 9, "read": null, "flags": [{"id": "availability.home.absences", "note": "AS Monaco are without 3 players, and Paris Brunner is a real loss.", "section": "§2.4"}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "AS Monaco have taken 2.67 points a game from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.7, and 3.00 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": [2, 0], "venue": {"city": "Fontvieille", "name": "Stade Louis II", "capacity": 18523}, "colors": {"away": "#0d64a5", "home": "#d11139"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 72, "home": 101}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"1134": {"caps": null, "goals": null, "signed": {"at": 1785369600, "fee": 25000000, "from": "Nantes"}, "country": null}, "2235": {"caps": 1, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Denmark U19"}, "3616": {"caps": 73, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Switzerland"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1020, "vs": null, "name": "Paolo Bianco"}, "home": {"id": 1919, "vs": null, "name": "Filipe Luís"}}}, "lambda": [1.57, 1.92], "league": "Club Friendlies", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.absences", "note": "AS Monaco are without 3 players, and Paris Brunner is a real loss.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": -1.7, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.2, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": -0.9, "side": "home", "channel": "corners"}, {"pct": 0.3, "side": "both", "channel": "cards"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 3, "players": [{"role": "ATT", "tags": ["best_performer", "in_form"], "player": "Paris Brunner", "reason": "fa_charge_of_improper_conduct", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0.333, "importance": 0.127, "cover_at_position": 5}, {"role": "MID", "tags": ["ever_present"], "player": "Denis Zakaria", "reason": "Groin Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.086, "cover_at_position": 11}, {"role": "MID", "player": "Anis Soubeir", "reason": "Ankle Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.007, "cover_at_position": 11}], "measured": 3, "combined_goal_share": 0.333, "combined_importance": 0.22}, "strength": 0.55}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Pisa report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.445, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.555}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "AS Monaco have taken 2.67 points a game from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.7, and 3.00 a game at home.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"ppg": 2.67, "record": "5-1-0", "streak": "unbeaten 6", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WWWWDW", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 0.67}, "strength": 0.7}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Pisa have taken 1.33 points a game from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3, and 1.50 a game on the road.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"ppg": 1.33, "record": "2-2-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDLWDL", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 1.5, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 1.33}, "strength": 0.15}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.settling", "note": "Filipe Luís is 13 games into the job at AS Monaco, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2.23, "manager": "Filipe Luís", "tenure_days": 77, "matches_in_charge": 13, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2.2, "before_ppm": 1.7}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Paolo Bianco is 7 games into the job at Pisa, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.29, "manager": "Paolo Bianco", "tenure_days": 412, "matches_in_charge": 7, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.5, "before_ppm": 0.9}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "AS Monaco come in on 15 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14.59375, "days_rest": 14.6, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 0}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Pisa come in on 18 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 17.583333333333332, "days_rest": 17.6, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 0}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 2.59161100533362 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.141, "shrunk": 0.76, "defence": 0.088, "effective_matches": 2.6}, "home": {"attack": 0.036, "shrunk": 0.67, "defence": 0.019, "effective_matches": 4}, "sample": 2.59161100533362, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": 3, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 9, "corners": 2.8, "matches": 12, "possession": 44.4, "xg_per_shot": 0.16, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.19, "corners_per_shot": 0.306}, "home": {"shots": 11.8, "corners": 3.5, "matches": 12, "possession": 49.8, "xg_per_shot": 0.118, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.36, "corners_per_shot": 0.298}, "possession_gap": 5.5}, "strength": 0.218}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "AS Monaco have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.36}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Pisa are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.19}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.0224298874313504}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "market.overround", "note": "No priced match-odds market for this fixture yet.", "tier": 7, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§7.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "market.movement", "note": "No opening price on record for this market, so movement cannot be read.", "tier": 7, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§7.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "market.sharp_reference", "note": "The sharp reference book is not quoting this fixture.", "tier": 7, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§7.1", "evidence": {"entitled": true}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "market.prediction_market", "note": "No prediction-market prices for this fixture.", "tier": 7, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§7.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}], "people": [{"id": 2222, "name": "Lukáš Hrádecký", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7255, "name": "Nazinho", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4051, "name": "Eric Dier", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2799, "name": "Sadibou Sané", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2223, "name": "Vanderson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2228, "name": "Lamine Camara", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2239, "name": "Stanis Idumbo Muzambo", "side": "home"}, {"id": 29648, "name": "Mathys Detourbet", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2231, "name": "Aleksandr Golovin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2235, "name": "Mika Biereth", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1134, "name": "Matthis Abline", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2240, "name": "Mamadou Coulibaly", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2227, "name": "Jordan Teze", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3619, "name": "Pape Cabral", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4315, "name": "Christian Mawissa", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7266, "name": "Edan Diop", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2232, "name": "Folarin Balogun", "side": "home"}, {"id": 89773, "name": "Safouane Benzahra", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8433, "name": "Ilane Touré", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2237, "name": "Philipp Köhn", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2225, "name": "Mohammed Salisu", "side": "home"}, {"id": 79600, "name": "Aymen Assab", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8549, "name": "Samuel Nibombe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4513, "name": "Paris Brunner", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2234, "name": "Ansu Fati", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4247, "name": "Jules Stawiecki", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3616, "name": "Denis Zakaria", "side": "home"}, {"id": 79601, "name": "Najd Ajroud", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2230, "name": "Takumi Minamino", "side": "home"}, {"id": 89774, "name": "Anis Soubeir", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1654, "name": "Simone Scuffet", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1657, "name": "Simone Canestrelli", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1655, "name": "Antonio Caracciolo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 7289, "name": "Rosen Bozhinov", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1662, "name": "Samuele Angori", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1665, "name": "Mehdi Léris", "side": "away"}, {"id": 8732, "name": "Felipe Loyola", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3807, "name": "Isak Vural", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1659, "name": "Gabriele Piccinini", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1668, "name": "Stefano Moreo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 39274, "name": "Emanuele Rao", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1674, "name": "Arturo Calabresi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 39374, "name": "Tommaso Marras", "side": "away"}, {"id": 39213, "name": "Simone Zanon", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1666, "name": "Matteo Tramoni", "side": "away"}, {"id": 39404, "name": "Giuseppe Leone", "side": "away"}, {"id": 116166, "name": "Andrea Primasso", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3808, "name": "Daniel Denoon", "side": "away"}, {"id": 4677, "name": "Tomás Esteves", "side": "away"}, {"id": 28558, "name": "Andrea Petagna", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29291, "name": "Ichem Ferrah", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1672, "name": "Francesco Coppola", "side": "away"}, {"id": 39433, "name": "Filippo Pittarello", "side": "away"}, {"id": 4521, "name": "Mateus Lusuardi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1669, "name": "Louis Buffon", "side": "away"}, {"id": 26951, "name": "Elia Giani", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29520, "name": "Leonardo Loria", "side": "away"}, {"id": 39399, "name": "Alessandro Confente", "side": "away"}, {"id": 116171, "name": "Jacopo Frosali", "side": "away"}, {"id": 47046, "name": "Omar Correia", "side": "away"}], "pulled": [], "report": {"ht": [0, 0], "stats": {"away": {"red": 0, "fouls": null, "saves": null, "shots": null, "passes": null, "yellow": 0, "corners": null, "offsides": 0, "pass_pct": null, "on_target": null, "possession": null, "big_chances": null}, "home": {"red": 0, "fouls": null, "saves": null, "shots": null, "passes": null, "yellow": 0, "corners": null, "offsides": 0, "pass_pct": null, "on_target": null, "possession": null, "big_chances": null}}, "events": [{"t": "goal", "kind": "penalty", "side": "home", "added": null, "score": [1, 0], "assist": null, "minute": 59, "player": "F. Balogun", "player_id": 2232}, {"t": "goal", "kind": "regular", "side": "home", "added": null, "score": [2, 0], "assist": null, "minute": 80, "player": "M. 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"name": "Gabriele Piccinini", "ai_score": 0.368, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 1668, "name": "Stefano Moreo", "ai_score": 0.459, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 39274, "name": "Emanuele Rao", "ai_score": 0.272, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 1674, "name": "Arturo Calabresi", "ai_score": 0.302, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 39374, "name": "Tommaso Marras", "ai_score": 0.3, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 39213, "name": "Simone Zanon", "ai_score": 0.26, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 1666, "name": "Matteo Tramoni", "ai_score": 0.252, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 39404, "name": "Giuseppe Leone", "ai_score": 0.247, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 116166, "name": "Andrea Primasso", "ai_score": 0.242, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 3808, "name": "Daniel Denoon", "ai_score": 0.212, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 4677, "name": "Tomás Esteves", "ai_score": 0.204, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 28558, "name": "Andrea Petagna", "ai_score": 0.192, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 29291, "name": "Ichem Ferrah", "ai_score": 0.188, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 1672, "name": "Francesco Coppola", "ai_score": 0.156, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 39433, "name": "Filippo Pittarello", "ai_score": 0.114, "position": "F", "starting": false}], "formation": "3-5-2", "confidence": 0.445}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 2222, "name": "Lukáš Hrádecký", "ai_score": 0.762, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 7255, "name": "Nazinho", "ai_score": 0.71, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 4051, "name": "Eric Dier", "ai_score": 0.783, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 2799, "name": "Sadibou Sané", "ai_score": 0.765, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 2223, "name": "Vanderson", "ai_score": 0.58, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 2228, "name": "Lamine Camara", "ai_score": 0.797, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 2239, "name": "Stanis Idumbo Muzambo", "ai_score": 0.586, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 29648, "name": "Mathys Detourbet", "ai_score": 0.288, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 2231, "name": "Aleksandr Golovin", "ai_score": 0.643, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 2235, "name": "Mika Biereth", "ai_score": 0.333, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 1134, "name": "Matthis Abline", "ai_score": 0.415, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 2240, "name": "Mamadou Coulibaly", "ai_score": 0.465, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 2227, "name": "Jordan Teze", "ai_score": 0.263, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 3619, "name": "Pape Cabral", "ai_score": 0.259, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 4315, "name": "Christian Mawissa", "ai_score": 0.258, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 7266, "name": "Edan Diop", "ai_score": 0.246, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 2232, "name": "Folarin Balogun", "ai_score": 0.176, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 89773, "name": "Safouane Benzahra", "ai_score": 0.176, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 8433, "name": "Ilane Touré", "ai_score": 0.168, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 2237, "name": "Philipp Köhn", "ai_score": 0.05, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 2225, "name": "Mohammed Salisu", "ai_score": 0.034, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 79600, "name": "Aymen Assab", "ai_score": 0.02, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 8549, "name": "Samuel Nibombe", "ai_score": 0.015, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.745}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.445, "unavailable": [{"id": 89774, "name": "Anis Soubeir", "side": "home", "reason": "Ankle Injury", "team_id": null}, {"id": 3616, "name": "Denis Zakaria", "side": "home", "reason": "Groin Injury", "team_id": null}, {"id": 4513, "name": "Paris Brunner", "side": 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"model_prob": 0.0647, "shrunk_edge": -0.0311}, {"edge": -0.1639, "line": -1.75, "odds": 3.3, "push": "half", "kelly": 0, "family": "handicap", "market": "asian_handicap", "prices": [{"book": "Bet365", "odds": 3.3, "slug": "bet365"}], "outcome": "HOME", "book_prob": 0.2742, "bookmaker": "Bet365", "confidence": 0.311, "model_prob": 0.1103, "shrunk_edge": -0.0385}, {"edge": -0.1905, "line": -1.5, "odds": 2.675, "push": "none", "kelly": 0, "family": "handicap", "market": "asian_handicap", "prices": [{"book": "Bet365", "odds": 2.675, "slug": "bet365"}], "outcome": "HOME", "book_prob": 0.3421, "bookmaker": "Bet365", "confidence": 0.311, "model_prob": 0.1516, "shrunk_edge": -0.0447}, {"edge": -0.2301, "line": -1.25, "odds": 2.35, "push": "half", "kelly": 0, "family": "handicap", "market": "asian_handicap", "prices": [{"book": "Bet365", "odds": 2.35, "slug": "bet365"}], "outcome": "HOME", "book_prob": 0.3953, "bookmaker": "Bet365", "confidence": 0.311, "model_prob": 0.1652, "shrunk_edge": -0.054}, {"edge": -0.2683, "line": 0.75, "odds": 1.115, "push": "half", "kelly": 0, "family": "handicap", "market": "asian_handicap", "prices": [{"book": "Bet365", "odds": 1.115, "slug": "bet365"}], "outcome": "HOME", "book_prob": 0.8703, "bookmaker": "Bet365", "confidence": 0.311, "model_prob": 0.602, "shrunk_edge": -0.063}], "confidence": 0.311, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1791017779, "corner_rate": 6.86, "lambda_away": 1.9171497766613597, "lambda_home": 1.5689280672206358, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was away draw-no-bet at 3.75, where the model confidence of 31% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Regular season", "lineup_status": "predicted"}