{"id":605170,"league_id":47,"league":"Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1","kickoff":1791725400,"home":"ES Métlaoui","away":"Stade Tunisien","home_id":1901,"away_id":1911,"venue_id":null,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.268,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[0.84,0.75],"read":null,"pass":"Passing on ES Métlaoui v Stade Tunisien. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."}],"lambda_home":0.8433317351968784,"lambda_away":0.7506355437586427,"corner_rate":8.68,"card_rate":0.071,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.268,"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":42424,"name":"Mohamed Aziz Bejaoui","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":42258,"name":"Yassine Soltani","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":42256,"name":"Koffi Kouassi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":42564,"name":"Irenée Togbedji Glele","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":144542,"name":"Ayoub Tlili","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":42263,"name":"Ismail Hermes","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":42257,"name":"Chérif Bodian","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":42457,"name":"Mohamed Ameur Belghith","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":42267,"name":"Bacem Hajji","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":42266,"name":"Brandon Nana","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":42465,"name":"Oussama Naffati","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":42261,"name":"Ited Fajraoui","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":42268,"name":"Abdoulaye Bangoura","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":42260,"name":"Ahmed Mechri","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":42471,"name":"Ameur Jouini","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":42498,"name":"Souhail Bouani","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":46332,"name":"Aziz Ghrissi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":42599,"name":"Oussama Hichri","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":46780,"name":"Aboubacar Stori","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":15671,"name":"Ifeanyi Ogba","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":42543,"name":"Kossai Tlili","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":42407,"name":"Mohamed Amine Bouzaabia","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":205094,"name":"Montasser Toumi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.268},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":42333,"name":"Atef Dkhili","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":42324,"name":"Aziz Saihi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":42334,"name":"Mounir Jelassi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":42336,"name":"Skander Sghaier","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":42335,"name":"Wael Ouerghemmi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":42330,"name":"Yusuf Toure","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":42328,"name":"Salifou Tapsoba","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":42340,"name":"Mohamed Amine Khemissi","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":42337,"name":"Boubacar Camara","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":42332,"name":"Youssef Dhaflaoui","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":42331,"name":"Amadou Dia Ndiaye","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":42329,"name":"Youssef Saafi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":13309,"name":"Amine Haboubi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":42517,"name":"Hedi Khalfa","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":15494,"name":"Noureddine Farhati","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":42338,"name":"Rifee Eddine Riahi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":42516,"name":"Papa Aboubacar Diop","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":42339,"name":"Moncef Gharbi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":78594,"name":"Baraket Hmidi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":42626,"name":"Godswill Emmanuel","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":204861,"name":"Hassine Refai","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":205016,"name":"Mame Thioune","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":46573,"name":"Mehdi Ben Mrad","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015}],"confidence":0.445},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":42424,"name":"Mohamed Aziz Bejaoui","side":"home"},{"id":42258,"name":"Yassine Soltani","side":"home"},{"id":42256,"name":"Koffi Kouassi","side":"home"},{"id":42564,"name":"Irenée Togbedji Glele","side":"home"},{"id":144542,"name":"Ayoub Tlili","side":"home"},{"id":42263,"name":"Ismail Hermes","side":"home"},{"id":42257,"name":"Chérif Bodian","side":"home"},{"id":42457,"name":"Mohamed Ameur Belghith","side":"home"},{"id":42267,"name":"Bacem Hajji","side":"home"},{"id":42266,"name":"Brandon Nana","side":"home"},{"id":42465,"name":"Oussama Naffati","side":"home"},{"id":42261,"name":"Ited Fajraoui","side":"home"},{"id":42268,"name":"Abdoulaye Bangoura","side":"home"},{"id":42260,"name":"Ahmed Mechri","side":"home"},{"id":42471,"name":"Ameur Jouini","side":"home"},{"id":42498,"name":"Souhail Bouani","side":"home"},{"id":46332,"name":"Aziz Ghrissi","side":"home"},{"id":42599,"name":"Oussama Hichri","side":"home"},{"id":46780,"name":"Aboubacar Stori","side":"home"},{"id":15671,"name":"Ifeanyi Ogba","side":"home"},{"id":42543,"name":"Kossai Tlili","side":"home"},{"id":42407,"name":"Mohamed Amine Bouzaabia","side":"home"},{"id":205094,"name":"Montasser Toumi","side":"home"},{"id":52659,"name":"Souhaiel Bououni","side":"home"},{"id":42592,"name":"Mohamed Mbarki","side":"home"},{"id":211206,"name":"Abdallah Chebbi","side":"home"},{"id":46423,"name":"Ahmed Beji","side":"home"},{"id":52660,"name":"Hamza Mansri","side":"home"},{"id":42546,"name":"Islam Faqih","side":"home"},{"id":206815,"name":"Mohamed Ourimi","side":"home"},{"id":50454,"name":"Mohmaed Islem Guesmi","side":"home"},{"id":46779,"name":"Anis Lakhel","side":"home"},{"id":42544,"name":"Karim Messai","side":"home"},{"id":46388,"name":"Najd Dabbebi","side":"home"},{"id":46575,"name":"Sadok Yeddes","side":"home"},{"id":52658,"name":"Morched Farah","side":"home"},{"id":46322,"name":"Mohamed Dkhila","side":"home"},{"id":42499,"name":"Yassine Messaoui","side":"home"},{"id":42264,"name":"Jeffrey André Nyobe","side":"home"},{"id":52622,"name":"Obaid Chabbi","side":"home"},{"id":205370,"name":"Jaouher Dinari","side":"home"},{"id":42545,"name":"Ayoub Khelifi","side":"home"},{"id":46608,"name":"Youssef Mrad","side":"home"},{"id":42333,"name":"Atef Dkhili","side":"away"},{"id":42324,"name":"Aziz Saihi","side":"away"},{"id":42334,"name":"Mounir Jelassi","side":"away"},{"id":42336,"name":"Skander Sghaier","side":"away"},{"id":42335,"name":"Wael Ouerghemmi","side":"away"},{"id":42330,"name":"Yusuf Toure","side":"away"},{"id":42328,"name":"Salifou Tapsoba","side":"away"},{"id":42340,"name":"Mohamed Amine Khemissi","side":"away"},{"id":42337,"name":"Boubacar Camara","side":"away"},{"id":42332,"name":"Youssef Dhaflaoui","side":"away"},{"id":42331,"name":"Amadou Dia Ndiaye","side":"away"},{"id":42329,"name":"Youssef Saafi","side":"away"},{"id":13309,"name":"Amine Haboubi","side":"away"},{"id":42517,"name":"Hedi Khalfa","side":"away"},{"id":15494,"name":"Noureddine Farhati","side":"away"},{"id":42338,"name":"Rifee Eddine Riahi","side":"away"},{"id":42516,"name":"Papa Aboubacar Diop","side":"away"},{"id":42339,"name":"Moncef Gharbi","side":"away"},{"id":78594,"name":"Baraket Hmidi","side":"away"},{"id":42626,"name":"Godswill Emmanuel","side":"away"},{"id":204861,"name":"Hassine Refai","side":"away"},{"id":205016,"name":"Mame Thioune","side":"away"},{"id":46573,"name":"Mehdi Ben Mrad","side":"away"},{"id":63567,"name":"Wissem Chaouali","side":"away"},{"id":212160,"name":"Abdi Fedi","side":"away"},{"id":42625,"name":"Chamseddine Jrid","side":"away"},{"id":91341,"name":"Rayed Derbali","side":"away"},{"id":63415,"name":"Malek Chouikh","side":"away"},{"id":24404,"name":"Fakhreddine Ben Youssef","side":"away"},{"id":42529,"name":"Abderrahman Hanchi","side":"away"},{"id":46349,"name":"Riad Ouafi","side":"away"},{"id":52621,"name":"Mazen Ben Daoud","side":"away"},{"id":52620,"name":"Ahmed Braiek","side":"away"},{"id":63416,"name":"Hazem Khemiri","side":"away"},{"id":52623,"name":"Firas Sfaxi","side":"away"},{"id":8941,"name":"Youssouf Oumarou","side":"away"},{"id":46351,"name":"Mohamed Alwafi","side":"away"},{"id":63417,"name":"Hamza Soussi","side":"away"},{"id":22895,"name":"Zakaria El Ayeb","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":42266,"name":"Brandon Nana","side":"home","team":"ES Métlaoui","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":42267,"name":"Bacem Hajji","side":"home","team":"ES Métlaoui","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":42332,"name":"Youssef Dhaflaoui","side":"away","team":"Stade Tunisien","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":42331,"name":"Amadou Dia Ndiaye","side":"away","team":"Stade Tunisien","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":1901,"away":1911},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":3},"below":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":1},"below":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":4207,"name":"Amine Gara","vs":null},"away":{"id":1784,"name":"Tozé Marreco","vs":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1769950800,"score":"0-0","result":"D"}}}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":42298,"name":"Ahmed Bouassida","goals":3,"rank":1},{"id":15492,"name":"Hazem Mastouri","goals":3,"rank":2},{"id":42514,"name":"Achref Ben Dhiaf","goals":2,"rank":3},{"id":42474,"name":"Daniel Oboh","goals":2,"rank":4},{"id":100520,"name":"Ghazi Ayadi","goals":2,"rank":5},{"id":42481,"name":"Idriss Mhirsi","goals":2,"rank":6},{"id":78394,"name":"Josna Loulendo","goals":2,"rank":7},{"id":206667,"name":"Mani Nour","goals":2,"rank":8},{"id":14707,"name":"Moez Haj Ali","goals":2,"rank":9},{"id":42313,"name":"Mohamed Trabelsi","goals":2,"rank":10},{"id":42402,"name":"Oussama Abid","goals":2,"rank":11},{"id":24426,"name":"Raed Bouchniba","goals":2,"rank":12},{"id":24416,"name":"Salah Barhoumi","goals":2,"rank":13},{"id":62980,"name":"Achref Ferchichi","goals":1,"rank":14},{"id":42520,"name":"Ahmed Amri","goals":1,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 5","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":20,"home_wins":6,"draws":5,"away_wins":9,"home_goals":15,"away_goals":22,"avg_total_goals":1.85,"home_win_rate":0.3,"away_win_rate":0.45,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Stade Tunisien","date":"2026-02-01T13:00:00+00:00","home":"ES Métlaoui","score":"0-0","event_id":204631,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1911,"home_team_id":1901},{"away":"ES Métlaoui","date":"2025-08-27T15:30:00+00:00","home":"Stade Tunisien","score":"2-0","event_id":204510,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1901,"home_team_id":1911},{"away":"Stade Tunisien","date":"2025-02-01T13:00:00+00:00","home":"ES Métlaoui","score":"0-0","event_id":238865,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1911,"home_team_id":1901},{"away":"ES Métlaoui","date":"2024-09-26T14:30:00+00:00","home":"Stade Tunisien","score":"1-0","event_id":238750,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1901,"home_team_id":1911},{"away":"Stade Tunisien","date":"2023-05-27T15:00:00+00:00","home":"ES Métlaoui","score":"2-1","event_id":261332,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1911,"home_team_id":1901},{"away":"ES Métlaoui","date":"2023-04-26T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Stade Tunisien","score":"1-1","event_id":261241,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1901,"home_team_id":1911},{"away":"ES Métlaoui","date":"2023-02-26T12:30:00+00:00","home":"Stade Tunisien","score":"2-1","event_id":242175,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1901,"home_team_id":1911},{"away":"Stade Tunisien","date":"2021-03-31T13:00:00+00:00","home":"ES Métlaoui","score":"1-0","event_id":284746,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1911,"home_team_id":1901},{"away":"ES Métlaoui","date":"2021-01-12T13:00:00+00:00","home":"Stade Tunisien","score":"0-0","event_id":284634,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1901,"home_team_id":1911},{"away":"Stade Tunisien","date":"2020-08-02T16:00:00+00:00","home":"ES Métlaoui","score":"2-1","event_id":296024,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1911,"home_team_id":1901}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":1901,"position":13,"played":4,"points":3,"goal_diff":-2,"team_name":"ES Métlaoui","won":1,"drawn":0,"lost":3,"goals_for":2,"goals_against":4,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":1911,"position":9,"played":3,"points":4,"goal_diff":1,"team_name":"Stade Tunisien","won":1,"drawn":1,"lost":1,"goals_for":5,"goals_against":4,"group":null},"size":16},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.67,"record":"1-1-4","goals_for":0.5,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLLLWL","venue_ppg":1},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":1,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"LDWDLW","venue_ppg":1.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"ES Métlaoui report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Tunisien report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.268,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.732,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":3,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":4,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Amine Gara is 5 games into the job at ES Métlaoui. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Amine Gara","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":337,"ppm":1.4,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1}]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tozé Marreco is 10 games into the job at Stade Tunisien, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Tozé Marreco","matches_in_charge":10,"tenure_days":191,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"ES Métlaoui have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"Stade Tunisien have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.165,"defence":0.035,"effective_matches":9,"shrunk":0.47},"away":{"attack":0.125,"defence":0.067,"effective_matches":8.2,"shrunk":0.49}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Tunisien average 10 points more possession than ES Métlaoui, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":44.3,"shots":null,"xg_per_shot":null,"corners":2.5,"corners_per_shot":null,"finishing_vs_xg":null},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54,"shots":null,"xg_per_shot":null,"corners":4,"corners_per_shot":null,"finishing_vs_xg":null},"possession_gap":-9.7},"strength":0.387,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for ES Métlaoui's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":12},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for Stade Tunisien's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":12},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 323 km for Stade Tunisien.","evidence":{"travel_km":323},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.4282790118727444},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4733,"created_at":"2026-10-05T02:15:28Z","event":{"id":605170,"event_date":"2026-10-11T13:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1901,"home_team":"ES Métlaoui","away_team_id":1911,"away_team":"Stade Tunisien","league_id":47,"league_name":"Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":38.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.389,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791699885,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#eb1c25","away":"#ec3829"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}