{"id": 605154, "h2h": null, "away": "SpVgg Greuther Fürth", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 0.83, "record": "1-2-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LLWLDD", "goals_for": 1.5, "venue_ppg": 2, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 2}, "home": {"ppg": 1.5, "record": "3-0-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWWLLW", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 2.25, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.67}}, "home": "VfB Stuttgart", "pass": "Passing on VfB Stuttgart v SpVgg Greuther Fürth. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 9, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "VfB Stuttgart to win, with goals"}, "flags": [], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Stuttgart", "name": "MHP Arena", "capacity": 60449}, "colors": {"away": "#30a642", "home": "#e32219"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 1292, "home": 84}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"1628": {"caps": null, "goals": null, "signed": {"at": 1751328000, "fee": 12000000, "from": "Stade Rennais"}, "country": null}, "3917": {"caps": null, "goals": null, "signed": {"at": 1755302400, "fee": 13000000, "from": "VfL Wolfsburg"}, "country": null}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1197, "vs": null, "name": "Heiko Vogel"}, "home": {"id": 283, "vs": null, "name": "Sebastian Hoeneß"}}}, "lambda": [2.3, 1.45], "league": "Club Friendlies", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.absences", "note": "VfB Stuttgart are without 6 players, none of them central to how the side plays.", "tier": 1, "moves": [{"pct": -1.3, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": 0.8, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": -0.6, "side": "home", "channel": "corners"}, {"pct": 0.4, "side": "both", "channel": "cards"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"count": 6, "players": [{"role": "ATT", "player": "Tiago Tomás", "reason": "Muscle Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.075, "cover_at_position": 7}, {"role": "DEF", "player": "Lorenz Assignon", "reason": "Shoulder Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0.333, "importance": 0.02, "cover_at_position": 10}, {"role": "DEF", "player": "Dan Zagadou", "reason": "Hamstring Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": true, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0, "cover_at_position": 10}, {"role": "GK", "player": "Dennis Seimen", "reason": "Hamstring Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": false, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.05, "cover_at_position": 3}, {"role": "MID", "player": "Justin Diehl", "reason": "Thigh Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": false, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.05, "cover_at_position": 11}, {"role": "MID", "player": "Jarzinho Malanga", "reason": "Abdominal Injury", "doubtful": false, "measured": false, "goal_share": 0, "importance": 0.05, "cover_at_position": 11}], "measured": 3, "combined_goal_share": 0.333, "combined_importance": 0.095}, "strength": 0.237}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "SpVgg Greuther Fürth report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "No lineup published yet. Rotation risk is unresolved and every price here is provisional until the eleven is named.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"lineup_status": "unavailable"}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.established", "note": "Sebastian Hoeneß has 22 matches in charge at VfB Stuttgart, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.68, "manager": "Sebastian Hoeneß", "tenure_days": 181, "matches_in_charge": 22, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 1.7}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "manager.away.established", "note": "Heiko Vogel has 16 matches in charge at SpVgg Greuther Fürth, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.31, "manager": "Heiko Vogel", "tenure_days": 338, "matches_in_charge": 16, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.6, "before_ppm": 1}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "VfB Stuttgart come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 6.041666666666667, "days_rest": 6, "matchesIn7": 1, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "SpVgg Greuther Fürth come in on 13 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 12.958333333333334, "days_rest": 13, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 4.05261074453441 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.118, "shrunk": 0.66, "defence": 0.112, "effective_matches": 4.1}, "home": {"attack": 0.448, "shrunk": 0.6, "defence": 0.25, "effective_matches": 5.2}, "sample": 4.05261074453441, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 15.1, "corners": 5.5, "matches": 12, "possession": 51.3, "xg_per_shot": 0.114, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.2, "corners_per_shot": 0.363}, "home": {"shots": 16.5, "corners": 5.9, "matches": 12, "possession": 55.4, "xg_per_shot": 0.109, "finishing_vs_xg": 1.04, "corners_per_shot": 0.357}, "possession_gap": 4.2}, "strength": 0.168}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "VfB Stuttgart have scored 12 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 1.04}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "SpVgg Greuther Fürth are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.0152845267197628}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 8905, "name": "Ameen Al-Dakhil", "side": "home"}, {"id": 73216, "name": "Collin Schramm", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1612, "name": "Ramon Hendriks", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1613, "name": "Josha Vagnoman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1623, "name": "Maximilian Mittelstädt", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3119, "name": "Luca Jaquez", "side": "home"}, {"id": 5227, "name": "Leonidas Stergiou", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1628, "name": "Lorenz Assignon", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3918, "name": "Dan Zagadou", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1611, "name": "Jeff Chabot", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1626, "name": "Finn Jeltsch", "side": "home"}, {"id": 5198, "name": "Maximilian Herwerth", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3917, "name": "Tiago Tomás", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4516, "name": "Ermedin Demirović", "side": "home"}, {"id": 29122, "name": "Tim van der Leij", "side": "home"}, {"id": 92620, "name": "Enis Redzepi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 73205, "name": "Oliver Rolke", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1378, "name": "Dženan Pejčinović", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1620, "name": "Deniz Undav", "side": "home"}, {"id": 3370, "name": "Leo Sauer", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1625, "name": "Fabian Bredlow", "side": "home"}, {"id": 41430, "name": "Marius Funk", "side": "home"}, {"id": 29374, "name": "Dennis Seimen", "side": "home"}, {"id": 4704, "name": "Stefan Drljača", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1622, "name": "Angelo Stiller", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8727, "name": "Lauri Penna", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1618, "name": "Chris Führich", "side": "home"}, {"id": 73207, "name": "Ertugrul Yigit", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1619, "name": "Bilal El Khannouss", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1627, "name": "Atakan Karazor", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1621, "name": "Jamie Leweling", "side": "home"}, {"id": 73208, "name": "Julian Lüers", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2381, "name": "Grischa Prömel", "side": "home"}, {"id": 1615, "name": "Nikolas Nartey", "side": "home"}, {"id": 24025, "name": "Justin Diehl", "side": "home"}, {"id": 41481, "name": "Jarzinho Malanga", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8726, "name": "Yanik Spalt", "side": "home"}, {"id": 29577, "name": "Lukas Reich", "side": "away"}, {"id": 12076, "name": "Elias Benkara", "side": "away"}, {"id": 21434, "name": "Maxim Dal", "side": "away"}, {"id": 41577, "name": "Jannis Heuer", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29581, "name": "Jannik Dehm", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29579, "name": "Luca Itter", "side": "away"}, {"id": 5870, "name": "Krisztián Keresztes", "side": "away"}, {"id": 28029, "name": "Hendry Blank", "side": "away"}, {"id": 73634, "name": "Jakob Krautkramer", "side": "away"}, {"id": 7207, "name": "Loris Giandomenico", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29560, "name": "Dennis Srbeny", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1912, "name": "Jordan Siebatcheu", "side": "away"}, {"id": 41837, "name": "Benjamin Merlin Zank", "side": "away"}, {"id": 41428, "name": "Omar Sillah", "side": "away"}, {"id": 3120, "name": "Florian Hellstern", "side": "away"}, {"id": 41638, "name": "Christian Ortag", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29588, "name": "Silas Prüfrock", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29562, "name": "Sacha Banse", "side": "away"}, {"id": 27751, "name": "Shinta Appelkamp", "side": "away"}, {"id": 1515, "name": "Ole Pohlmann", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29566, "name": "Aaron Keller", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29569, "name": "Paul Will", "side": "away"}, {"id": 27574, "name": "Mika Wallentowitz", "side": "away"}, {"id": 12532, "name": "Doni Arifi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29564, "name": "Felix Klaus", "side": "away"}, {"id": 41800, "name": "Philipp Muller", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68345, "name": "Faton Ademi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 29571, "name": "Mehmet Avlayici", "side": "away"}, {"id": 152596, "name": "Olgherto Balliu", "side": "away"}, {"id": 73636, "name": "Luis Daehne", "side": "away"}, {"id": 73635, "name": "Pepe Pereira Mendes", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 1292, "home_id": 84, "kickoff": 1790868600, "lineups": {"away": null, "home": null, "status": "unavailable", "confidence": null, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 15835, "name": "Hamza Abdelkarim", "rank": 1, "goals": 4}, {"id": 390, "name": "João Pedro", "rank": 2, "goals": 4}, {"id": 675, "name": "Matheus França", "rank": 3, "goals": 4}, {"id": 1690, "name": "Andy Diouf", "rank": 4, "goals": 3}, {"id": 1796, "name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "rank": 5, "goals": 3}, {"id": 434, "name": "Eddie Nketiah", "rank": 6, "goals": 3}, {"id": 2810, "name": "Esteban Lepaul", "rank": 7, "goals": 3}, {"id": 5672, "name": "Felipe Chávez", "rank": 8, "goals": 3}, {"id": 65891, "name": "Kirsten Otchere", "rank": 9, "goals": 3}, {"id": 4831, "name": "Leon Opitz", "rank": 10, "goals": 3}, {"id": 7118, "name": "William Alves", "rank": 11, "goals": 3}, {"id": 8576, "name": "Abdellah Ouazane", "rank": 12, "goals": 2}, {"id": 380, "name": "Brenden Aaronson", "rank": 13, "goals": 2}, {"id": 4280, "name": "Carlos Espí", "rank": 14, "goals": 2}, {"id": 6784, "name": "Cengiz Ünder", "rank": 15, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 29374, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Dennis Seimen", "role": "GK", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "VfB Stuttgart", "reason": "Hamstring Injury", "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "out", "country": null, "position": "GK", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": "2026-10-10"}, {"id": 1628, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Lorenz Assignon", "role": "DEF", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "VfB Stuttgart", "reason": "Shoulder Injury", "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 18, "goals": 0, "starts": 8, "assists": 1, "team_games": 42, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 8, "tracked_apps": 18, "tracked_starts": 8}, "status": "out", "country": null, "position": "RB", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 0, "score": "3-2", "assists": 1, "kickoff": 1769716800, "opponent": "BSC Young Boys"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.02, "expected_return": "2026-10-20"}, {"id": 3918, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Dan Zagadou", "role": "DEF", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "VfB Stuttgart", "reason": "Hamstring Injury", "recent": {"apps": 1, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 1, "goals": 0, "starts": 0, "assists": 0, "team_games": 42, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "tracked_apps": 1, "tracked_starts": 0}, "status": "out", "country": null, "position": "CB", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": "2026-10-20"}, {"id": 3917, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Tiago Tomás", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "VfB Stuttgart", "reason": "Muscle Injury", "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 21, "goals": 5, "starts": 5, "assists": 4, "team_games": 42, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 4, "tracked_apps": 21, "tracked_starts": 5}, "status": "out", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "4-0", "assists": 1, "kickoff": 1787337900, "opponent": "FC Hansa Rostock"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.075, "expected_return": "2026-10-10"}, {"id": 24025, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Justin Diehl", "role": "MID", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "VfB Stuttgart", "reason": "Thigh Injury", "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "out", "country": null, "position": "LW", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": "2026-10-10"}], "external": {}, "venue_id": 82, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.018, "league_id": 79, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 5, "lost": 3, "drawn": 0, "group": null, "played": 8, "points": 15, "team_id": 1292, "position": 168, "goal_diff": 8, "goals_for": 18, "team_name": "SpVgg Greuther Fürth", "goals_against": 10}, "home": {"won": 6, "lost": 1, "drawn": 1, "group": null, "played": 8, "points": 19, "team_id": 84, "position": 63, "goal_diff": 24, "goals_for": 31, "team_name": "VfB Stuttgart", "goals_against": 7}, "size": 2953}, "confidence": 0.249, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790759603, "corner_rate": 7.87, "lambda_away": 1.451708864537442, "lambda_home": 2.3033328944169944, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was both teams to score — yes at 1.66, where the model confidence of 25% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Regular season", "lineup_status": "unavailable"}