{"id": 605018, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Namibia", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 0.5, "record": "1-0-5", "streak": "lost 4", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWLLLL", "goals_for": 0.83, "venue_ppg": 0, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 2.17}, "home": {"ppg": 2.17, "record": "4-1-1", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDLWWW", "goals_for": 1.83, "venue_ppg": 2.6, "clean_sheets": 4, "goals_against": 0.33}}, "home": "Russia", "pass": "Russia v Namibia is one to leave alone. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 9, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Russia to win"}, "flags": [{"id": "form.home", "note": "Russia have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.3, and 2.60 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Namibia have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2, and 0.00 a game on the road.", "section": "§2.1"}, {"id": "market.movement", "note": "Since opening, AWAY has shortened 17.2% since the market opened.", "section": "§7.1"}], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Yekaterinburg", "name": "Central Stadium", "capacity": 35696}, "colors": {"away": "#b80f0f", "home": "#0c3d99"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 2264, "home": 697}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"2231": {"caps": 44, "goals": 9, "signed": null, "country": "Russia"}, "15167": {"caps": 21, "goals": 4, "signed": null, "country": "Namibia"}, "53930": {"caps": 19, "goals": 3, "signed": null, "country": "Russia"}, "54573": {"caps": 14, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Namibia"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1688, "vs": null, "name": "Collin Benjamin"}, "home": {"id": 81, "vs": null, "name": "Valeriy Karpin"}}}, "lambda": [1.93, 0.82], "league": "International Friendly Games", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Russia report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Namibia report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.6, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.4}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Valeriy Karpin is 5 games into the job at Russia. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2, "manager": "Valeriy Karpin", "tenure_days": 187, "matches_in_charge": 5, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2, "before_ppm": 2.1}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Collin Benjamin is 14 games into the job at Namibia, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.36, "manager": "Collin Benjamin", "tenure_days": 1054, "matches_in_charge": 14, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.6, "before_ppm": 1.3}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Russia come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 3.9375, "days_rest": 3.9, "matchesIn7": 1, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Namibia have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": null, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 0}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.252574637933013 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": -0.022, "shrunk": 0.97, "defence": -0.017, "effective_matches": 0.3}, "home": {"attack": 0.063, "shrunk": 0.68, "defence": 0.155, "effective_matches": 3.8}, "sample": 0.252574637933013, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Russia average 10 points more possession than Namibia, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": 2.2, "side": "home", "channel": "corners"}, {"pct": -2.2, "side": "away", "channel": "corners"}, {"pct": 3, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}, {"pct": -3, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 16, "corners": 6, "matches": 12, "possession": 48, "xg_per_shot": 0.068, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.41, "corners_per_shot": 0.375}, "home": {"shots": 15.2, "corners": 5.9, "matches": 12, "possession": 58.4, "xg_per_shot": 0.149, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.52, "corners_per_shot": 0.388}, "possession_gap": 10.4}, "strength": 0.416}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Russia have scored 6 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.52}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Namibia have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.41}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.524518843035693}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 2257, "name": "Matvey Safonov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 17192, "name": "Danil Krugovoy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16800, "name": "Viktor Melekhin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16784, "name": "Evgeniy Morozov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16794, "name": "Ilya Vakhaniya", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16787, "name": "Nail Umyarov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16796, "name": "Matvey Kislyak", "side": "home"}, {"id": 17193, "name": "Ivan Oblyakov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16791, "name": "Lechi Sadulaev", "side": "home"}, {"id": 53930, "name": "Ivan Sergeev", "side": "home"}, {"id": 17194, "name": "Maksim Glushenkov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 28316, "name": "Aleksey Batrakov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 9679, "name": "Aleksey Miranchuk", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16801, "name": "Aleksandr Silyanov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16785, "name": "Mingiyan Beveev", "side": "home"}, {"id": 2231, "name": "Aleksandr Golovin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 17191, "name": "Stanislav Agkatsev", "side": "home"}, {"id": 30106, "name": "Igor Diveev", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16798, "name": "Dmitriy Barinov", "side": "home"}, {"id": 59631, "name": "Maksim Osipenko", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16790, "name": "Konstantin Tyukavin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7858, "name": "Anton Miranchuk", "side": "home"}, {"id": 16788, "name": "Danyl Prutsev", "side": "home"}, {"id": 54566, "name": "Kamaijanda Ndisiro", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54570, "name": "Riaan Hanamub", "side": "away"}, {"id": 24238, "name": "Deon Hotto", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54569, "name": "Charles Hambira", "side": "away"}, {"id": 24044, "name": "Ivan Kamberipa", "side": "away"}, {"id": 14351, "name": "Aprocious Petrus", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54574, "name": "Tjipe Karuuombe", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54573, "name": "Bethuel Muzeu", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54572, "name": "Ngero Kaanjuka Katua", "side": "away"}, {"id": 55951, "name": "Prins Menelik Tjiueza", "side": "away"}, {"id": 15167, "name": "Peter Shalulile", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54571, "name": "Dynamo Fredericks", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54568, "name": "Kennedy Amutenya", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54579, "name": "Edward Maova", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54567, "name": "Paulus Ileni Amutenya", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54576, "name": "Moses Shidolo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54577, "name": "Erastus Kulula", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54575, "name": "David Ndeunyema", "side": "away"}, {"id": 57649, "name": "Erasmus Ikeinge", "side": "away"}, {"id": 57650, "name": "Romeo Kasume", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54927, "name": "Joslin Kamatuka", "side": "away"}, {"id": 55028, "name": "Lloyd Junior Kazapua", "side": "away"}, {"id": 57657, "name": "Ben Namib", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 2264, "home_id": 697, "kickoff": 1791039600, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 54566, "name": "Kamaijanda Ndisiro", "ai_score": 0.327, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 54570, "name": "Riaan Hanamub", "ai_score": 0.609, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 24238, "name": "Deon Hotto", "ai_score": 0.606, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 54569, "name": "Charles Hambira", "ai_score": 0.566, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 24044, "name": "Ivan Kamberipa", "ai_score": 0.368, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 14351, "name": "Aprocious Petrus", "ai_score": 0.597, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54574, "name": "Tjipe Karuuombe", "ai_score": 0.23, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 54573, "name": "Bethuel Muzeu", "ai_score": 0.317, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 54572, "name": "Ngero Kaanjuka Katua", "ai_score": 0.48, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 55951, "name": "Prins Menelik Tjiueza", "ai_score": 0.193, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 15167, "name": "Peter Shalulile", "ai_score": 0.506, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 54571, "name": "Dynamo Fredericks", "ai_score": 0.293, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54568, "name": "Kennedy Amutenya", "ai_score": 0.234, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 54579, "name": "Edward Maova", "ai_score": 0.22, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 54567, "name": "Paulus Ileni Amutenya", "ai_score": 0.201, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54576, "name": "Moses Shidolo", "ai_score": 0.188, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54577, "name": "Erastus Kulula", "ai_score": 0.186, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 54575, "name": "David Ndeunyema", "ai_score": 0.181, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 57649, "name": "Erasmus Ikeinge", "ai_score": 0.178, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 57650, "name": "Romeo Kasume", "ai_score": 0.178, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 54927, "name": "Joslin Kamatuka", "ai_score": 0.171, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 55028, "name": "Lloyd Junior Kazapua", "ai_score": 0.156, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 57657, "name": "Ben Namib", "ai_score": 0.106, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.6}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 2257, "name": "Matvey Safonov", "ai_score": 0.469, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 17192, "name": "Danil Krugovoy", "ai_score": 0.64, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 16800, "name": "Viktor Melekhin", "ai_score": 0.57, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 16784, "name": "Evgeniy Morozov", "ai_score": 0.429, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 16794, "name": "Ilya Vakhaniya", "ai_score": 0.52, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 16787, "name": "Nail Umyarov", "ai_score": 0.41, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 16796, "name": "Matvey Kislyak", "ai_score": 0.565, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 17193, "name": "Ivan Oblyakov", "ai_score": 0.564, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 16791, "name": "Lechi Sadulaev", "ai_score": 0.497, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 53930, "name": "Ivan Sergeev", "ai_score": 0.463, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 17194, "name": "Maksim Glushenkov", "ai_score": 0.622, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 28316, "name": "Aleksey Batrakov", "ai_score": 0.643, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 9679, "name": "Aleksey Miranchuk", "ai_score": 0.558, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 16801, "name": "Aleksandr Silyanov", "ai_score": 0.514, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 16785, "name": "Mingiyan Beveev", "ai_score": 0.501, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 2231, "name": "Aleksandr Golovin", "ai_score": 0.475, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 17191, "name": "Stanislav Agkatsev", "ai_score": 0.465, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 30106, "name": "Igor Diveev", "ai_score": 0.426, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 16798, "name": "Dmitriy Barinov", "ai_score": 0.421, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 59631, "name": "Maksim Osipenko", "ai_score": 0.358, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 16790, "name": "Konstantin Tyukavin", "ai_score": 0.357, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 7858, "name": "Anton Miranchuk", "ai_score": 0.349, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 16788, "name": "Danyl Prutsev", "ai_score": 0.321, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0.632}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.6, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 16978, "name": "Jairo Vélez", "rank": 1, "goals": 5}, {"id": 3974, "name": "Dodi Lukebakio", "rank": 2, "goals": 4}, {"id": 2231, "name": "Aleksandr Golovin", "rank": 3, "goals": 3}, {"id": 3369, "name": "Ayase Ueda", "rank": 4, "goals": 3}, {"id": 551, "name": "Dan Ndoye", "rank": 5, "goals": 3}, {"id": 1620, "name": "Deniz Undav", "rank": 6, "goals": 3}, {"id": 330, "name": "Florian Wirtz", "rank": 7, "goals": 3}, {"id": 33894, "name": "Jack Moylan", "rank": 8, "goals": 3}, {"id": 530, "name": "Jhon Arias", "rank": 9, "goals": 3}, {"id": 2186, "name": "Jonathan David", "rank": 10, "goals": 3}, {"id": 5774, "name": "Lawrence Shankland", "rank": 11, "goals": 3}, {"id": 2161, "name": "Marcel Sabitzer", "rank": 12, "goals": 3}, {"id": 2467, "name": "Michael Olise", "rank": 13, "goals": 3}, {"id": 3890, "name": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "rank": 14, "goals": 3}, {"id": 9190, "name": "Son Heung-min", "rank": 15, "goals": 3}], "players": [{"id": 2231, "club": "AS Monaco", "load": {"games": 1, "country": 1, "minutes": 84}, "name": "Aleksandr Golovin", "role": "MID", "side": "home", "tags": ["in_form"], "team": "Russia", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 2, "assists": 2, "country": 1, "scoredIn": 1}, "season": {"apps": 7, "goals": 2, "starts": 6, "assists": 2, "team_games": 13, "big_chances": 2, "clean_sheets": 2, "tracked_apps": 7, "tracked_starts": 6}, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 1, "team": "Russia", "goals": 2, "lately": {"apps": 1, "goals": 2, "assists": 0}, "assists": 0, "tournament": null}, "position": "AM", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "3-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786282200, "opponent": "Liverpool FC"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.088, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 53930, "club": "Dynamo Moscow", "load": null, "name": "Ivan Sergeev", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Russia", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 2, "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "country": 2, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": {"apps": 2, "team": "Russia", "goals": 0, "lately": null, "assists": 1, "tournament": null}, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 15167, "club": "Young Africans SC", "load": null, "name": "Peter Shalulile", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Namibia", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 54573, "club": "Sekhukhune United", "load": null, "name": "Bethuel Muzeu", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Namibia", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4212, "event": {"id": 605018, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Namibia", "home_team": "Russia", "league_id": 31, "event_date": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "league_name": "International Friendly Games", "away_team_id": 2264, "home_team_id": 697}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.8686}, "created_at": "2026-09-28T02:15:28Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 86.9}}}, "venue_id": 3092, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.087, "league_id": 31, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 0, "lost": 0, "drawn": 0, "group": null, "played": 0, "points": 0, "team_id": 2264, "position": 167, "goal_diff": 0, "goals_for": 0, "team_name": "Namibia", "goals_against": 0}, "home": {"won": 4, "lost": 1, "drawn": 1, "group": null, "played": 6, "points": 13, "team_id": 697, "position": 4, "goal_diff": 9, "goals_for": 11, "team_name": "Russia", "goals_against": 2}, "size": 196}, "confidence": 0.276, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871794, "corner_rate": 9.81, "lambda_away": 0.8215407185946414, "lambda_home": 1.9264305690826329, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was the draw at 9.80, where the model confidence of 28% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "League phase", "lineup_status": "predicted"}