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form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.135,"defence":0.17,"effective_matches":16.2,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":0.017,"defence":0.04,"effective_matches":16.2,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.4,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.346,"finishing_vs_xg":0.23},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.5,"shots":17,"xg_per_shot":0.07,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.309,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.36},"possession_gap":-3.1},"strength":0.125,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Once Caldas have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.36,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":4.9,"temperature_c":13,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3226737920074502},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: no-prices","preview":"Millonarios will secure a tight home win because Once Caldas cannot translate control into defensive resilience. The visitors usually command possession in six of their last eight matches, fashioning plenty of opportunities. However, they are sliding backwards, suffering three defeats in six outings while their last four games produced their worst balance of creating and conceding chances. Traveling poorly, they face hosts playing their fourth fixture in a fortnight. Millonarios miss six players in all, losing midfield creativity and defensive cover. Yet Andrey Estupiñán brings lethal form with four goals in his last five games, including twice in a 4-1 win on 17 October. His finishing decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5350,"created_at":"2026-10-14T02:15:27Z","event":{"id":604921,"event_date":"2026-10-20T23:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":736,"home_team":"Millonarios","away_team_id":3891,"away_team":"Once Caldas","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":51.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5129,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792455359,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#2b4890","away":"#272d6d"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin","city":"Bogota","capacity":36343},"pulled":[],"published":[]}