{"id": 604918, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Anstey Nomads", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2.5, "record": "3-1-0", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 4, "sequence": "DWWW", "goals_for": 3.25, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1}, "home": {"ppg": 1.83, "record": "3-2-1", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DWLWDW", "goals_for": 1.5, "venue_ppg": 1.33, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 0.83}}, "home": "Gainsborough Trinity", "pass": "Nothing to take on Gainsborough Trinity against Anstey Nomads. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": null, "text": "Too close to call"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Anstey Nomads have taken 2.50 points a game from their last 4 (3W 1D 0L), scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.0, and 3.00 a game on the road.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": null, "home": "#2d4890"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 8523, "home": 1874}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 3664, "vs": null, "name": "Conrad Logan"}, "home": {"id": 1240, "vs": null, "name": "Russell Wilcox"}}}, "lambda": [1.71, 1.65], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Gainsborough Trinity report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Anstey Nomads report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.settling", "note": "Russell Wilcox is 11 games into the job at Gainsborough Trinity, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.64, "manager": "Russell Wilcox", "tenure_days": 336, "matches_in_charge": 11, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 1.1}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Conrad Logan is 3 games into the job at Anstey Nomads. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.1, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 3, "manager": "Conrad Logan", "tenure_days": 85, "matches_in_charge": 3, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 3, "before_ppm": 1}}, "strength": 0.35}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Gainsborough Trinity come in on 11 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 10.802083333333334, "days_rest": 10.8, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Anstey Nomads come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.77099887792206 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.136, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": 0.116, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "home": {"attack": 0.098, "shrunk": 0.74, "defence": 0.073, "effective_matches": 2.9}, "sample": 1.77099887792206, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 4, "home_matches": 12}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Gainsborough Trinity have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds. — though 4 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"sample": 4, "matches": 12, "required": 6, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.48}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Anstey Nomads's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 4}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 63182, "name": "Callum Hawkins", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43876, "name": "Aaron Simpson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43882, "name": "Ashley Jackson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43884, "name": "Ashton Offler", "side": "home"}, {"id": 137276, "name": "Ben Blythe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43875, "name": "Aaron Braithwaite", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43874, "name": "Bobby Johnson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 53572, "name": "Elliott Whitehouse", "side": "home"}, {"id": 52608, "name": "Connor Brown", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43872, "name": "Ethan Harrison", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43870, "name": "Frank Mulhern", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43883, "name": "Harrison Beeden", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43879, "name": "Lewis Butroid", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45635, "name": "Harvey Sutcliffe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43881, "name": "George Hornshaw", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43885, "name": "Jack Leckie", "side": "home"}, {"id": 46410, "name": "Javelle Clarke", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43886, "name": "David Robson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 46412, "name": "Ollie Sykes", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43873, "name": "Jordan Helliwell", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43868, "name": "Fraser Preston", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63181, "name": "Theo Williams", "side": "home"}, {"id": 164804, "name": "Conrad Logan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 124315, "name": "Darien Wauchope", "side": "away"}, {"id": 209900, "name": "Jamie Chisholm", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206875, "name": "Jordan Annable", "side": "away"}, {"id": 152815, "name": "Kevin Bastos", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206873, "name": "Ben Humphreys", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206870, "name": "Henry Bestwick", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206871, "name": "Jonty Bouch", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206868, "name": "Courey Grantham", "side": "away"}, {"id": 157759, "name": "David Nugent", "side": "away"}, {"id": 123574, "name": "Harvey Kirby-Moore", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206878, "name": "Kyle Tomlin", "side": "away"}, {"id": 167971, "name": "Lewis Gibbens", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206876, "name": "Luke Redfern", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206877, "name": "Oscar Tonge", "side": "away"}, {"id": 114599, "name": "Luis Rose", "side": "away"}, {"id": 131235, "name": "Tendai Chitiza", "side": "away"}, {"id": 114158, "name": "Martyn Waghorn", "side": "away"}, {"id": 127879, "name": "Spencer Weir-Daley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206867, "name": "Tristen Thomas", "side": "away"}, {"id": 209901, "name": "Max Bramley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 103783, "name": "Ronnie Kokkinos", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206869, "name": "Rubyn Gill", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206872, "name": "Tobias Liversidge", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 8523, "home_id": 1874, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 164804, "name": "Conrad Logan", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 124315, "name": "Darien Wauchope", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 209900, "name": "Jamie Chisholm", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 206875, "name": "Jordan Annable", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 152815, "name": "Kevin Bastos", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 206873, "name": "Ben Humphreys", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 206870, "name": "Henry Bestwick", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 206871, "name": "Jonty Bouch", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 206868, "name": "Courey Grantham", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 157759, "name": "David Nugent", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 123574, "name": "Harvey Kirby-Moore", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 63182, "name": "Callum Hawkins", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 43876, "name": "Aaron Simpson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43882, "name": "Ashley Jackson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43884, "name": "Ashton Offler", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 137276, "name": "Ben Blythe", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43875, "name": "Aaron Braithwaite", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 43874, "name": "Bobby Johnson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 53572, "name": "Elliott Whitehouse", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 52608, "name": "Connor Brown", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 43872, "name": "Ethan Harrison", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 43870, "name": "Frank Mulhern", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 52608, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Connor Brown", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Gainsborough Trinity", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "LM", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 43872, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ethan Harrison", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Gainsborough Trinity", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 152815, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Kevin Bastos", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Anstey Nomads", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "RM", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 206868, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Courey Grantham", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Anstey Nomads", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4326, "event": {"id": 604918, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Anstey Nomads", "home_team": "Gainsborough Trinity", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 8523, "home_team_id": 1874}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.4126}, "created_at": "2026-10-01T04:05:29Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 41.3}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.298, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871800, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.6497873407271555, "lambda_home": 1.7051382189072088, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was over 2.5 goals at 1.57, where the model confidence of 30% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}