{"id": 604916, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Chippenham Town", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.83, "record": "3-2-1", "streak": "unbeaten 4", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WLDWDW", "goals_for": 1.5, "venue_ppg": 1.75, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1}, "home": {"ppg": 1.83, "record": "3-2-1", "streak": "unbeaten 4", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WLDWDW", "goals_for": 1.67, "venue_ppg": 2.33, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 1.17}}, "home": "Cray Wanderers", "pass": "Nothing to take on Cray Wanderers against Chippenham Town. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Cray Wanderers to edge it, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#314c95", "home": "#ece219"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 4049, "home": 7331}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2130, "vs": null, "name": "Gary Horgan"}, "home": {"id": 3624, "vs": null, "name": "Tim O'Shea"}}}, "lambda": [1.47, 1.29], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Cray Wanderers report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Chippenham Town report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Tim O'Shea is 5 games into the job at Cray Wanderers. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.6, "manager": "Tim O'Shea", "tenure_days": 64, "matches_in_charge": 5, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.6, "before_ppm": 1.5}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Gary Horgan is 7 games into the job at Chippenham Town, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2, "manager": "Gary Horgan", "tenure_days": 82, "matches_in_charge": 7, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2, "before_ppm": 1.5}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Cray Wanderers come in on 11 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 10.802083333333334, "days_rest": 10.8, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Chippenham Town come in on 11 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 10.802083333333334, "days_rest": 10.8, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 3.57438188045178 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": -0.005, "shrunk": 0.69, "defence": 0.153, "effective_matches": 3.6}, "home": {"attack": -0.021, "shrunk": 0.69, "defence": 0.16, "effective_matches": 3.6}, "sample": 3.57438188045178, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 9, "home_matches": 10}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Cray Wanderers's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 10}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Chippenham Town's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 9}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 43232, "name": "Henry Molyneux", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143592, "name": "Ade Yusuff", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143598, "name": "Alfie Payne", "side": "home"}, {"id": 127862, "name": "Bayli Spencer-Adams", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115263, "name": "Chris Dickson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143602, "name": "Bobby Parkes", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115329, "name": "Crossley Lema", "side": "home"}, {"id": 136544, "name": "Frankie Raymond", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143594, "name": "Alex Hernandez", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143596, "name": "Ashley Nzala", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143595, "name": "Lateef Adaja", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143606, "name": "Thomas Borders", "side": "home"}, {"id": 122987, "name": "Frankie Morgan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143605, "name": "Quade Taylor", "side": "home"}, {"id": 210313, "name": "Harmony Okwumo", "side": "home"}, {"id": 208778, "name": "Rob Strachan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143604, "name": "Tom Bonner", "side": "home"}, {"id": 80037, "name": "Ola Ogunwamide", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143597, "name": "Michael Ihiedi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143593, "name": "Shae Hutchinson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48118, "name": "JJ Briggs", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143601, "name": "Freddie Warwick", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143600, "name": "George Brooke", "side": "home"}, {"id": 69326, "name": "Massimo Sardo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69323, "name": "Alex Bray", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69319, "name": "Aaron Amadi-Holloway", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143123, "name": "Ben Richards-Everton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69325, "name": "Freddie Grant", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69320, "name": "Jac Poffley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 213219, "name": "Ayman Gharbaoui", "side": "away"}, {"id": 91675, "name": "Felix Miles", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69316, "name": "Ethan Lindo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 213218, "name": "Joel Odei-Larbi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69314, "name": "Martell Taylor-Crossdale", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69324, "name": "Will King", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69321, "name": "Luke Haines", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143124, "name": "Kevin Williams", "side": "away"}, {"id": 34196, "name": "Nelson Sanca", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69313, "name": "Oliver Bray", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69312, "name": "Olaf Koszela", "side": "away"}, {"id": 88283, "name": "Marley Rose", "side": "away"}, {"id": 69318, "name": "Henry Sady", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143122, "name": "Leon Moore", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4049, "home_id": 7331, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 69326, "name": "Massimo Sardo", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 69323, "name": "Alex Bray", "ai_score": 0.206, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 69319, "name": "Aaron Amadi-Holloway", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 143123, "name": "Ben Richards-Everton", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 69325, "name": "Freddie Grant", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 69320, "name": "Jac Poffley", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 213219, "name": "Ayman Gharbaoui", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 91675, "name": "Felix Miles", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 69316, "name": "Ethan Lindo", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 213218, "name": "Joel Odei-Larbi", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 69314, "name": "Martell Taylor-Crossdale", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "3-4-3", "confidence": 0.009}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 43232, "name": "Henry Molyneux", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 143592, "name": "Ade Yusuff", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 143598, "name": "Alfie Payne", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 127862, "name": "Bayli Spencer-Adams", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115263, "name": "Chris Dickson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 143602, "name": "Bobby Parkes", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 115329, "name": "Crossley Lema", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 136544, "name": "Frankie Raymond", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 143594, "name": "Alex Hernandez", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 143596, "name": "Ashley Nzala", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 143595, "name": "Lateef Adaja", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 143592, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ade Yusuff", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Cray Wanderers", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 115263, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Chris Dickson", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Cray Wanderers", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 69316, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ethan Lindo", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Chippenham Town", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 213218, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Joel Odei-Larbi", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Chippenham Town", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4128, "event": {"id": 604916, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Chippenham Town", "home_team": "Cray Wanderers", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 4049, "home_team_id": 7331}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5254}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 52.5}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.27, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871802, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.287413075183344, "lambda_home": 1.4745588624681818, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was under 3.5 goals at 1.62, where the model confidence of 27% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}