{"id": 604915, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Braintree Town", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.17, "record": "2-1-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWLLDW", "goals_for": 2.33, "venue_ppg": 0.33, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.67}, "home": {"ppg": 1.83, "record": "3-2-1", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DDLWWW", "goals_for": 1.83, "venue_ppg": 1.75, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1}}, "home": "AFC Rushden & Diamonds", "pass": "AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Braintree Town is one to leave alone. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": "away", "text": "Braintree Town to edge it, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#0c4b94", "home": "#1a61a1"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 1894, "home": 7192}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 1260, "vs": null, "name": "Stephen Pitt"}, "home": {"id": 3666, "vs": null, "name": "Elliot Sandy"}}}, "lambda": [2.07, 1.48], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "AFC Rushden & Diamonds report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Braintree Town report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Elliot Sandy is 3 games into the job at AFC Rushden & Diamonds. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 3.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 3, "manager": "Elliot Sandy", "tenure_days": 64, "matches_in_charge": 3, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 3, "before_ppm": 1}}, "strength": 0.35}, {"id": "manager.away.established", "note": "Stephen Pitt has 28 matches in charge at Braintree Town, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 0.68, "manager": "Stephen Pitt", "tenure_days": 337, "matches_in_charge": 28, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.1, "before_ppm": 0.6}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "AFC Rushden & Diamonds come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Braintree Town come in on 11 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 10.802083333333334, "days_rest": 10.8, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.77099887792206 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.1, "shrunk": 0.8, "defence": -0.002, "effective_matches": 2}, "home": {"attack": 0.145, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": 0.123, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "sample": 1.77099887792206, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 12, "home_matches": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for AFC Rushden & Diamonds's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Braintree Town are scoring about what their chances are worth.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.13}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 98877, "name": "Charlie Woods", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98845, "name": "Bruno Andrade", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98872, "name": "Curtis Hartley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98870, "name": "David Adegbola", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98849, "name": "Elliot Sandy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98861, "name": "Bruce Tsinonis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 213135, "name": "Dominic Allen-Ledgeway", "side": "home"}, {"id": 213134, "name": "Freddie Findlay", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98850, "name": "Freddie Robinson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 114601, "name": "Gary Mulligan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98847, "name": "James Clifton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98862, "name": "John-Joe O'Toole", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98865, "name": "Tarik Dallas", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98867, "name": "Jack Daldy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98871, "name": "Jarvis Wilson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 140171, "name": "Lewis Brooks", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98874, "name": "Max Prickett-Reed", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98869, "name": "Ryan Hughes", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98873, "name": "Sam Brown", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98866, "name": "Sidik Atcha", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98864, "name": "Tejan Thomas", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98846, "name": "Jordan O'Brien", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98878, "name": "Ewan Evans", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98854, "name": "Matt Warburton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 185421, "name": "Jack Maltby-Smith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98856, "name": "Joel Nketia", "side": "home"}, {"id": 98858, "name": "Milad Ehsani", "side": "home"}, {"id": 111056, "name": "George Barrett", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43056, "name": "Emmanuel Okunowo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 65723, "name": "Alfie Lewis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 65726, "name": "Finn Adams", "side": "away"}, {"id": 78908, "name": "Idreess Namisi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46413, "name": "Courtney Senior", "side": "away"}, {"id": 205306, "name": "Afi Adebayo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43050, "name": "Elliot Thorpe", "side": "away"}, {"id": 65724, "name": "Alex Bolovan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 65722, "name": "Alfie Matthews", "side": "away"}, {"id": 44765, "name": "Anisius Lewis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75161, "name": "Luis Brown", "side": "away"}, {"id": 80177, "name": "Jet Dyer", "side": "away"}, {"id": 80191, "name": "Michael Olarewaju", "side": "away"}, {"id": 65725, "name": "Jacob Mensah", "side": "away"}, {"id": 204465, "name": "Vladimir Paternoster", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68727, "name": "George Evans", "side": "away"}, {"id": 142141, "name": "George Okoye", "side": "away"}, {"id": 12084, "name": "Reuben Swann", "side": "away"}, {"id": 142146, "name": "Louie Edward Johnson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 142145, "name": "Louie Johnson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46549, "name": "Fletcher Hubbard", "side": "away"}, {"id": 204464, "name": "James Bennett", "side": "away"}, {"id": 142148, "name": "Moss Lewis", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 1894, "home_id": 7192, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 111056, "name": "George Barrett", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 43056, "name": "Emmanuel Okunowo", "ai_score": 0.161, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 65723, "name": "Alfie Lewis", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 65726, "name": "Finn Adams", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 78908, "name": "Idreess Namisi", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 46413, "name": "Courtney Senior", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 205306, "name": "Afi Adebayo", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 43050, "name": "Elliot Thorpe", "ai_score": 0.267, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 65724, "name": "Alex Bolovan", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 65722, "name": "Alfie Matthews", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 44765, "name": "Anisius Lewis", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "5-4-1", "confidence": 0.023}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 98877, "name": "Charlie Woods", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 98845, "name": "Bruno Andrade", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 98872, "name": "Curtis Hartley", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 98870, "name": "David Adegbola", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 98849, "name": "Elliot Sandy", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 98861, "name": "Bruce Tsinonis", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 213135, "name": "Dominic Allen-Ledgeway", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 213134, "name": "Freddie Findlay", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 98850, "name": "Freddie Robinson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 114601, "name": "Gary Mulligan", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 98847, "name": "James Clifton", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 98845, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Bruno Andrade", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "AFC Rushden & Diamonds", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "LW", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 98849, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Elliot Sandy", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "AFC Rushden & Diamonds", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "AM", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 44765, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Anisius Lewis", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Braintree Town", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4300, "event": {"id": 604915, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Braintree Town", "home_team": "AFC Rushden & Diamonds", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 1894, "home_team_id": 7192}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5758}, "created_at": "2026-10-01T02:05:24Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 57.6}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.017, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.308, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871802, "corner_rate": 10.81, "lambda_away": 1.483340565980427, "lambda_home": 2.0738595795988255, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance 1X at 2.25, where the model confidence of 31% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}