{"id": 604910, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Atherton Collieries AFC", "form": {"away": {"matches": 3}, "home": {"ppg": 2.4, "record": "4-0-1", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 5, "sequence": "WLWWW", "goals_for": 1.8, "venue_ppg": 2, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.2}}, "home": "Trafford FC", "pass": "Nothing to take on Trafford FC against Atherton Collieries AFC. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": null, "text": "Too close to call"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "Trafford FC have taken 2.40 points a game from their last 5 (4W 0D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2, and 2.00 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#404040", "home": "#4c873e"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 2915, "home": 7186}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 3668, "vs": null, "name": "Daniel Lafferty"}, "home": null}}, "lambda": [1.8, 1.58], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Trafford FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Atherton Collieries AFC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Too few recent results on record for Atherton Collieries AFC to read their form.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 3}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home", "note": "No manager record for Trafford FC, so regime state cannot be read.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Daniel Lafferty is 3 games into the job at Atherton Collieries AFC. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.1, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2, "manager": "Daniel Lafferty", "tenure_days": 68, "matches_in_charge": 3, "appointment_effect": null}, "strength": 0.35}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Trafford FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Atherton Collieries AFC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.77099887792206 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.093, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": 0.071, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "home": {"attack": 0.106, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": 0.072, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "sample": 1.77099887792206, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 3, "home_matches": 5}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Trafford FC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 5}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Atherton Collieries AFC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 3}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 153418, "name": "Charlie Brier", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153412, "name": "Callum Grogan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153417, "name": "Finley Stanyer", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33627, "name": "Harry Evers", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34200, "name": "David Worrall", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153405, "name": "Brad Byrne", "side": "home"}, {"id": 122906, "name": "Dillon Edmundson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153408, "name": "George Unsworth", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153402, "name": "Bile Ahmed", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153403, "name": "Campbell Reid", "side": "home"}, {"id": 95121, "name": "James Butterworth", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153413, "name": "Jack Higginbottom", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153414, "name": "Mackena Bradshaw", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153416, "name": "Ollie Southern", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153415, "name": "Scott Sephton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153400, "name": "Kyle Worsley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 107516, "name": "Lewis Jacklin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 204901, "name": "Luke Sephton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153399, "name": "Matt Davies", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153401, "name": "Prosper Imar", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153394, "name": "Ryan Brooke", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153419, "name": "Connor Beard", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153409, "name": "Moses Yoak", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153404, "name": "Hilal Khan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 153406, "name": "Kingston Fligg", "side": "home"}, {"id": 94845, "name": "Harvey Bardsley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206927, "name": "Ben Rydel", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206922, "name": "Calen Gallagher", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206924, "name": "Danny Lafferty", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206923, "name": "Essa Janneh", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206930, "name": "Freddie Gordon", "side": "away"}, {"id": 201497, "name": "Aaron Bennett", "side": "away"}, {"id": 160592, "name": "Alex Doyle", "side": "away"}, {"id": 170136, "name": "Chinedu Uche", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206917, "name": "David Mayamona", "side": "away"}, {"id": 215355, "name": "Fenton Davies", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206926, "name": "Jack Sloan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 138164, "name": "Javid Swaby-Neavin", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206929, "name": "Kai Cherry", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206925, "name": "Luca Jackson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 54400, "name": "Mohamud Ali", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206921, "name": "Sam Olawumi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206928, "name": "Tom Warren", "side": "away"}, {"id": 34172, "name": "Harry Showman", "side": "away"}, {"id": 214234, "name": "Jake Lewis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 165997, "name": "Kielen Adams", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206916, "name": "Liam Sheppard", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206915, "name": "Louis Potts", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206931, "name": "Matthew Corran", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115335, "name": "Jack Dallimore", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206918, "name": "Rodney Ajayi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 209990, "name": "Harry Forshaw", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206919, "name": "Luke Nock", "side": "away"}, {"id": 198123, "name": "Sam Sheridan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 206920, "name": "Will Decandia", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 2915, "home_id": 7186, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 94845, "name": "Harvey Bardsley", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 206927, "name": "Ben Rydel", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 206922, "name": "Calen Gallagher", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 206924, "name": "Danny Lafferty", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 206923, "name": "Essa Janneh", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 206930, "name": "Freddie Gordon", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 201497, "name": "Aaron Bennett", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 160592, "name": "Alex Doyle", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 170136, "name": "Chinedu Uche", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 206917, "name": "David Mayamona", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 215355, "name": "Fenton Davies", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}], "formation": "3-4-3", "confidence": 0}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 153418, "name": "Charlie Brier", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 153412, "name": "Callum Grogan", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 153417, "name": "Finley Stanyer", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 33627, "name": "Harry Evers", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 34200, "name": "David Worrall", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 153405, "name": "Brad Byrne", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 122906, "name": "Dillon Edmundson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 153408, "name": "George Unsworth", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 153402, "name": "Bile Ahmed", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 153403, "name": "Campbell Reid", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 95121, "name": "James Butterworth", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 153402, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Bile Ahmed", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Trafford FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 153403, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Campbell Reid", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Trafford FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 170136, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Chinedu Uche", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Atherton Collieries AFC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "CM", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 206917, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "David Mayamona", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Atherton Collieries AFC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4282, "event": {"id": 604910, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Atherton Collieries AFC", "home_team": "Trafford FC", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 2915, "home_team_id": 7186}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.4559}, "created_at": "2026-09-30T20:05:16Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 45.6}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.198, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871804, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.5828211373458527, "lambda_home": 1.7982727598704382, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was over 2.5 goals at 1.53, where the model confidence of 20% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}