{"id": 604903, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Alvechurch FC", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2.33, "record": "4-2-0", "streak": "unbeaten 6", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDWDWW", "goals_for": 2.17, "venue_ppg": 1.67, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 0.83}, "home": {"ppg": 2.4, "record": "4-0-1", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 5, "sequence": "WLWWW", "goals_for": 2.8, "venue_ppg": 2, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 1.4}}, "home": "Cambridge City", "pass": "Cambridge City v Alvechurch FC is one to leave alone. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": "away", "text": "Alvechurch FC to edge it, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "Cambridge City have taken 2.40 points a game from their last 5 (4W 0D 1L), scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.4, and 2.00 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Alvechurch FC have taken 2.33 points a game from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8, and 1.67 a game on the road.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#efc539", "home": "#ce2b1e"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 5853, "home": 4121}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 3320, "vs": null, "name": "Kyle Storer"}, "home": {"id": 2213, "vs": null, "name": "Michael Spillane"}}}, "lambda": [2.05, 1.58], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Cambridge City report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Alvechurch FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Michael Spillane is 4 games into the job at Cambridge City. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.1, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2.25, "manager": "Michael Spillane", "tenure_days": 85, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2.25, "before_ppm": 1.7}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Kyle Storer is 4 games into the job at Alvechurch FC. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1.4, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2.5, "manager": "Kyle Storer", "tenure_days": 71, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2.5, "before_ppm": 2}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Cambridge City come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Alvechurch FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.77099887792206 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.082, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": 0.12, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "home": {"attack": 0.264, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": 0.057, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "sample": 1.77099887792206, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 9, "home_matches": 5}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Cambridge City's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 5}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Alvechurch FC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 9}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 215582, "name": "Gene Ghag", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88576, "name": "Charlie Lewis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 154671, "name": "Charlie Norman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88573, "name": "Jayden Randell", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88567, "name": "Charlie Royle", "side": "home"}, {"id": 139360, "name": "Danny Norton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88570, "name": "Jack Thompson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 185573, "name": "Jaiden Babalola", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88565, "name": "Charles Brown-Bampoe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 185571, "name": "Fletcher Toll", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88562, "name": "Fletcher Toll", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88575, "name": "Travis Dodsworth", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34289, "name": "Rohat Matyar", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88574, "name": "Reece Harris", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88572, "name": "Ryan Fryatt", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43048, "name": "Freddie Hockey", "side": "home"}, {"id": 213205, "name": "Freddie Croft", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88566, "name": "Philip Mendy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 185570, "name": "Sam Chaney", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88563, "name": "Samrai Gebrai", "side": "home"}, {"id": 213204, "name": "Zach Head", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88577, "name": "James Philp", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88569, "name": "Lewis Hayes", "side": "home"}, {"id": 185572, "name": "Ryan Fryatt", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88571, "name": "Ryan King", "side": "home"}, {"id": 140595, "name": "Joe Williams", "side": "away"}, {"id": 185459, "name": "Archie Crowther", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140593, "name": "Jessy Bavanganga", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140592, "name": "Jack Kelly", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140588, "name": "Nick Clayton-Phillips", "side": "away"}, {"id": 135367, "name": "Sam Perry", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140589, "name": "Jonny Ngandu", "side": "away"}, {"id": 139271, "name": "Harry Reilly", "side": "away"}, {"id": 114596, "name": "Ben Stephens", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140585, "name": "Kieran Wakefield", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140586, "name": "Billy Corns", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140596, "name": "Emmanuel Tobiloba Ilesanmi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140591, "name": "Callum Sullivan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140594, "name": "Rio Birt", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46433, "name": "Miracle Okafor", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45749, "name": "Emmanuel Ilesanmi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 135665, "name": "Tope Obadeyi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 130326, "name": "Kyle Storer", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140590, "name": "Jez Abbey", "side": "away"}, {"id": 140587, "name": "George Forsyth", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 5853, "home_id": 4121, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 140595, "name": "Joe Williams", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 185459, "name": "Archie Crowther", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 140593, "name": "Jessy Bavanganga", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 140592, "name": "Jack Kelly", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 140588, "name": "Nick Clayton-Phillips", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 135367, "name": "Sam Perry", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 140589, "name": "Jonny Ngandu", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 139271, "name": "Harry Reilly", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 114596, "name": "Ben Stephens", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 140585, "name": "Kieran Wakefield", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 140586, "name": "Billy Corns", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0.041}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 215582, "name": "Gene Ghag", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 88576, "name": "Charlie Lewis", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 154671, "name": "Charlie Norman", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 88573, "name": "Jayden Randell", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 88567, "name": "Charlie Royle", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 139360, "name": "Danny Norton", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 88570, "name": "Jack Thompson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 185573, "name": "Jaiden Babalola", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 88565, "name": "Charles Brown-Bampoe", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 185571, "name": "Fletcher Toll", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 88562, "name": "Fletcher Toll", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 88567, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Charlie Royle", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Cambridge City", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "RM", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 88565, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Charles Brown-Bampoe", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Cambridge City", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 114596, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ben Stephens", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Alvechurch FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 140585, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Kieran Wakefield", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Alvechurch FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4292, "event": {"id": 604903, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Alvechurch FC", "home_team": "Cambridge City", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 5853, "home_team_id": 4121}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5058}, "created_at": "2026-10-01T02:05:24Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 50.6}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.248, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871807, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.577591540406121, "lambda_home": 2.0474816566263225, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was home win at 3.90, where the model confidence of 25% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}