{"id": 604899, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Chorley FC", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 0.67, "record": "1-1-4", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LLDLLW", "goals_for": 0.5, "venue_ppg": 1, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.33}, "home": {"matches": 3}}, "home": "Barton Town", "pass": "Barton Town v Chorley FC is one to leave alone. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": "away", "text": "Chorley FC to win, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#ed223e", "home": null}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 4012, "home": 8489}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2092, "vs": null, "name": "Andy Preece"}, "home": null}}, "lambda": [1.58, 1.27], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Barton Town report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Chorley FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.059, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.941}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "Too few recent results on record for Barton Town to read their form.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 3}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home", "note": "No manager record for Barton Town, so regime state cannot be read.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Andy Preece is 4 games into the job at Chorley FC. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1.4, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Andy Preece", "tenure_days": 81, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 1.2}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Barton Town come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Chorley FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.925761882826246 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": -0.028, "shrunk": 0.9, "defence": 0.119, "effective_matches": 0.9}, "home": {"attack": 0.023, "shrunk": 0.75, "defence": 0.163, "effective_matches": 2.6}, "sample": 0.925761882826246, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 7, "home_matches": 3}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Barton Town's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 3}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Chorley FC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 7}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 73655, "name": "Li-Bau Stowell", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79190, "name": "Harvey Smith", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79185, "name": "Adam Henley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79188, "name": "Adam Blakeman", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79178, "name": "Billy Whitehouse", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79191, "name": "Jack Moore", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79176, "name": "Mike Calveley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79183, "name": "Ben Layton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79179, "name": "Callum Rowe", "side": "away"}, {"id": 33679, "name": "Anjola Popoola", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143127, "name": "Elliot Taylor", "side": "away"}, {"id": 215206, "name": "Adam Blakeman", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79184, "name": "Mark Ellis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79189, "name": "Scott Wilson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79186, "name": "Max Hunt", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79187, "name": "Sam Bird", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79175, "name": "Jack Sampson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 55247, "name": "Kole Hall", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143126, "name": "Sonny Reeves", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79193, "name": "Oliver Green", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79192, "name": "Steven Drench", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79177, "name": "Lewis Salmon", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79182, "name": "George Horbury", "side": "away"}, {"id": 67812, "name": "Steven Bala", "side": "away"}, {"id": 6943, "name": "Max Wilson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79181, "name": "Elliot Taylor", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143128, "name": "Milan Lalkovič", "side": "away"}, {"id": 79180, "name": "Sam Fielding", "side": "away"}, {"id": 131240, "name": "Warren Clarke", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4012, "home_id": 8489, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 73655, "name": "Li-Bau Stowell", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 79190, "name": "Harvey Smith", "ai_score": 0.215, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 79185, "name": "Adam Henley", "ai_score": 0.127, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 79188, "name": "Adam Blakeman", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 79178, "name": "Billy Whitehouse", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 79191, "name": "Jack Moore", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 79176, "name": "Mike Calveley", "ai_score": 0.443, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 79183, "name": "Ben Layton", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 79179, "name": "Callum Rowe", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 33679, "name": "Anjola Popoola", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 143127, "name": "Elliot Taylor", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "5-3-2", "confidence": 0.059}, "home": null, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.059, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 33679, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Anjola Popoola", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Chorley FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 143127, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Elliot Taylor", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Chorley FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4278, "event": {"id": 604899, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Chorley FC", "home_team": "Barton Town", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 4012, "home_team_id": 8489}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.6773}, "created_at": "2026-09-30T20:05:16Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 67.7}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.194, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871809, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.2711068646021912, "lambda_home": 1.5773117738798055, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance 1X at 3.10, where the model confidence of 19% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}