{"id": 604898, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Spalding United", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2.5, "record": "3-1-0", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 4, "sequence": "DWWW", "goals_for": 2.5, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 0.5}, "home": {"ppg": 1.83, "record": "3-2-1", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDLDWW", "goals_for": 2.83, "venue_ppg": 0.5, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 2}}, "home": "Bury Town FC", "plan": "monthly", "rank": 6, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Spalding United have taken 2.50 points a game from their last 4 (3W 1D 0L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.5.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#efda3f", "home": "#2461a7"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 4694, "home": 7167}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2755, "vs": null, "name": "Jimmy Dean"}, "home": null}}, "lambda": [2.04, 1.67], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Bury Town FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Spalding United report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home", "note": "No manager record for Bury Town FC, so regime state cannot be read.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Jimmy Dean is 4 games into the job at Spalding United. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1.4, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2.5, "manager": "Jimmy Dean", "tenure_days": 78, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2.5, "before_ppm": 0}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Bury Town FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Spalding United come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.925761882826246 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.018, "shrunk": 0.9, "defence": 0.091, "effective_matches": 0.9}, "home": {"attack": 0.25, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": -0.064, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "sample": 0.925761882826246, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 4, "home_matches": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Bury Town FC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Spalding United's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 4}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": true, "people": [{"id": 101308, "name": "Charlie Beckwith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 121558, "name": "Bailey Clements", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101307, "name": "Lewis O'Malley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101306, "name": "Lewis O'Malley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43059, "name": "Tommy Smith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101302, "name": "Ethan Mayhew", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101303, "name": "Max Maughn", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101304, "name": "Michael Davis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101297, "name": "Jamie McGrath", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101294, "name": "Ollie Canfer", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101295, "name": "Sam Ford", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101293, "name": "Seth Chambers", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101300, "name": "Ryan Jolland", "side": "home"}, {"id": 101301, "name": "Thomas Hughes", "side": "home"}, {"id": 85056, "name": "Daniel Wilks", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85053, "name": "Ashton Fox", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85049, "name": "Alfie Bendle", "side": "away"}, {"id": 152474, "name": "Bradley Grant", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85052, "name": "Connor Johnson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 152473, "name": "Dan Jarvis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85045, "name": "Jordan Nicholson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 27346, "name": "Sam Straughan Brown", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85041, "name": "Bartosz Cybulski", "side": "away"}, {"id": 24390, "name": "Daniel Barton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85046, "name": "Dion Sembie-Ferris", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43253, "name": "Michael Kelly", "side": "away"}, {"id": 37203, "name": "Tosin Olopade", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85051, "name": "Liam Moore", "side": "away"}, {"id": 202941, "name": "Tionne Critchlow Woyo", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85042, "name": "Saleem Akanbi", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85043, "name": "Jack Roberts", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85057, "name": "Peter Crook", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43556, "name": "Tom Pugh", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42707, "name": "Shane Byrne", "side": "away"}, {"id": 85048, "name": "Yusifu Ceesay", "side": "away"}, {"id": 35422, "name": "Zaid Betteka", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4694, "home_id": 7167, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 85056, "name": "Daniel Wilks", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 85053, "name": "Ashton Fox", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 85049, "name": "Alfie Bendle", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 152474, "name": "Bradley Grant", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 85052, "name": "Connor Johnson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 152473, "name": "Dan Jarvis", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 85045, "name": "Jordan Nicholson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 27346, "name": "Sam Straughan Brown", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 85041, "name": "Bartosz Cybulski", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 24390, "name": "Daniel Barton", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 85046, "name": "Dion Sembie-Ferris", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 101308, "name": "Charlie Beckwith", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 121558, "name": "Bailey Clements", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 101307, "name": "Lewis O'Malley", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 101306, "name": "Lewis O'Malley", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43059, "name": "Tommy Smith", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 101302, "name": "Ethan Mayhew", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 101303, "name": "Max Maughn", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 101304, "name": "Michael Davis", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 101297, "name": "Jamie McGrath", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 101294, "name": "Ollie Canfer", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 101295, "name": "Sam Ford", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 101297, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Jamie McGrath", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Bury Town FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 101294, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ollie Canfer", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Bury Town FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 85045, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Jordan Nicholson", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Spalding United", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "LW", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 85041, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Bartosz Cybulski", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Spalding United", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4277, "event": {"id": 604898, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Spalding United", "home_team": "Bury Town FC", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 4694, "home_team_id": 7167}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.4287}, "created_at": "2026-09-30T20:05:16Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 42.9}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [{"drivers": [{"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Jimmy Dean is 4 games into the job at Spalding United. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1.4, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2.5, "manager": "Jimmy Dean", "tenure_days": 78, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2.5, "before_ppm": 0}}, "strength": 0.233}], "narrative": "This FA Cup tie promises plenty of chaos despite Spalding United keeping three clean sheets in four. Bury Town FC look vulnerable because they are oddly poor at home, even though they have won three of their last six matches. Both sides will line up in a 4-3-3 formation. Charlie Beckwith starts in goal for Bury Town FC behind a front line featuring Jamie McGrath, Ollie Canfer and Sam Ford. Manager Jimmy Dean is still settling in at Spalding United, but his side have won three of their last four. With Daniel Wilks in goal, Spalding United also deploy Jordan Nicholson, Bartosz Cybulski and Daniel Barton up front.", "set_aside": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}]}], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.219, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871810, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.670255423300387, "lambda_home": 2.035523904042295, "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "locked_calls": 1, "lineup_status": "predicted"}