{"id": 604895, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Horsham FC", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.67, "record": "3-1-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDLWLW", "goals_for": 1.83, "venue_ppg": 1.5, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.17}, "home": {"ppg": 1.8, "record": "3-0-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 5, "sequence": "LWLWW", "goals_for": 1.4, "venue_ppg": 1, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.6}}, "home": "Plymouth Parkway", "pass": "Plymouth Parkway v Horsham FC is one to leave alone. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": null, "text": "Too close to call"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#0b881f", "home": "#eee82b"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 4157, "home": 4104}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2256, "vs": null, "name": "Dominic Di Paola"}, "home": null}}, "lambda": [1.73, 1.44], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Plymouth Parkway report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Horsham FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home", "note": "No manager record for Plymouth Parkway, so regime state cannot be read.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Dominic Di Paola is 7 games into the job at Horsham FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.86, "manager": "Dominic Di Paola", "tenure_days": 86, "matches_in_charge": 7, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.86, "before_ppm": 0.5}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Plymouth Parkway come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Horsham FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.936479489674314 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.084, "shrunk": 0.9, "defence": 0.099, "effective_matches": 0.9}, "home": {"attack": 0.097, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": 0.14, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "sample": 0.936479489674314, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 8, "home_matches": 5}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Plymouth Parkway's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 5}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Horsham FC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 8}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 150448, "name": "Luke McCormick", "side": "home"}, {"id": 150442, "name": "Callum Hall", "side": "home"}, {"id": 129639, "name": "Jack Endacott", "side": "home"}, {"id": 150447, "name": "Joel Sullivan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 150441, "name": "Les Afful", "side": "home"}, {"id": 137451, "name": "Carlo Garside", "side": "home"}, {"id": 150443, "name": "Rio Garside", "side": "home"}, {"id": 150444, "name": "Ryan Brett", "side": "home"}, {"id": 150440, "name": "Andrew Neal", "side": "home"}, {"id": 139404, "name": "Cruis Ny Adzayo", "side": "home"}, {"id": 150446, "name": "Toby Down", "side": "home"}, {"id": 209114, "name": "Callum Furber", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82402, "name": "Reece Meekums", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115259, "name": "Jack Brivio", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115251, "name": "Jack Strange", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82410, "name": "Lee Harding", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82408, "name": "Danny Barker", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82405, "name": "James Hammond", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82404, "name": "Charlie Hester-Cook", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82401, "name": "Lucas Rodrigues", "side": "away"}, {"id": 80035, "name": "Daniel Ajakaiye", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42793, "name": "Ashley Nadesan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 115270, "name": "Jake Elliott", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46527, "name": "Archy Taylor", "side": "away"}, {"id": 147454, "name": "Ryan Bartley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 147452, "name": "Ronan Silva", "side": "away"}, {"id": 147453, "name": "Marco Luis  Haigh", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93172, "name": "Michael Dike", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82412, "name": "Samuel Howes", "side": "away"}, {"id": 204667, "name": "Will Heater", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82409, "name": "Jamie Yila", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82407, "name": "Greg Luer", "side": "away"}, {"id": 68180, "name": "Harry Hedges", "side": "away"}, {"id": 147096, "name": "Marco Haigh", "side": "away"}, {"id": 82403, "name": "Niall McManus", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4157, "home_id": 4104, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 209114, "name": "Callum Furber", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 82402, "name": "Reece Meekums", "ai_score": 0.183, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 115259, "name": "Jack Brivio", "ai_score": 0.273, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115251, "name": "Jack Strange", "ai_score": 0.243, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 82410, "name": "Lee Harding", "ai_score": 0.219, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 82408, "name": "Danny Barker", "ai_score": 0.132, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 82405, "name": "James Hammond", "ai_score": 0.263, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 82404, "name": "Charlie Hester-Cook", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 82401, "name": "Lucas Rodrigues", "ai_score": 0.216, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 80035, "name": "Daniel Ajakaiye", "ai_score": 0.211, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 42793, "name": "Ashley Nadesan", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 115270, "name": "Jake Elliott", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0.141}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 150448, "name": "Luke McCormick", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 150442, "name": "Callum Hall", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 129639, "name": "Jack Endacott", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 150447, "name": "Joel Sullivan", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 150441, "name": "Les Afful", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 137451, "name": "Carlo Garside", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 150443, "name": "Rio Garside", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 150444, "name": "Ryan Brett", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 150440, "name": "Andrew Neal", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 139404, "name": "Cruis Ny Adzayo", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 150446, "name": "Toby Down", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 150441, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Les Afful", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Plymouth Parkway", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "RW", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 150440, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Andrew Neal", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Plymouth Parkway", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 80035, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Daniel Ajakaiye", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Horsham FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 42793, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ashley Nadesan", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Horsham FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4290, "event": {"id": 604895, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Horsham FC", "home_team": "Plymouth Parkway", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 4157, "home_team_id": 4104}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.3824}, "created_at": "2026-10-01T02:05:24Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 38.2}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.215, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871811, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.4354556377270487, "lambda_home": 1.7312212016207578, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance 1X at 1.50, where the model confidence of 21% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}