{"id": 604892, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 1, "away_goals": 1, "home_goals": 2, "away_win_rate": 0, "home_win_rate": 1, "total_matches": 1, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Warrington Town FC", "date": "2026-07-28T18:30:00+00:00", "home": "Marine AFC", "score": "2-1", "event_id": 601621, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 4698, "home_team_id": 3547}], "avg_total_goals": 3}, "away": "Warrington Town FC", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.17, "record": "2-1-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LLLDWW", "goals_for": 2.17, "venue_ppg": 0.5, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.5}, "home": {"ppg": 2.67, "record": "5-1-0", "streak": "won 5", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DWWWWW", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 2.6, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 0.67}}, "home": "Marine AFC", "plan": "monthly", "rank": 6, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "Marine AFC have taken 2.67 points a game from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.7, and 2.60 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#0c3996", "home": null}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 4698, "home": 3547}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2760, "vs": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 0, "last": {"score": "1-2", "result": "L", "kickoff": 1785263400}}, "name": "Paul Carden"}, "home": {"id": 3082, "vs": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1, "last": {"score": "2-1", "result": "W", "kickoff": 1785263400}}, "name": "Bobby Grant"}}}, "lambda": [1.66, 1.85], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Marine AFC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Warrington Town FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Bobby Grant is 4 games into the job at Marine AFC. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.1, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 3, "manager": "Bobby Grant", "tenure_days": 71, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 3, "before_ppm": 1.5}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Paul Carden is 8 games into the job at Warrington Town FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Paul Carden", "tenure_days": 78, "matches_in_charge": 8, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 0.78}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Marine AFC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Warrington Town FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.925761882826246 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.172, "shrunk": 0.75, "defence": 0.137, "effective_matches": 2.6}, "home": {"attack": 0.071, "shrunk": 0.9, "defence": -0.028, "effective_matches": 0.9}, "sample": 0.925761882826246, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 10, "home_matches": 8}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Marine AFC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 8}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Warrington Town FC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 10}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": true, "people": [{"id": 148974, "name": "Dean Porter", "side": "home"}, {"id": 122936, "name": "Finlay Sinclair-Smith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 122937, "name": "Josh Wardle", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115375, "name": "Adam Anson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 121028, "name": "Charlie Jolley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 73426, "name": "Alfie Bairstow", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115180, "name": "Ben Darby", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33889, "name": "Conor McAleny", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148956, "name": "Harry Huby", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148975, "name": "George Kattah", "side": "home"}, {"id": 117822, "name": "George Newell", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148972, "name": "James Butler", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148967, "name": "Isaac Abankwah", "side": "home"}, {"id": 113044, "name": "Declan Drysdale", "side": "home"}, {"id": 92658, "name": "Jack Doyle", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148971, "name": "James Bell", "side": "home"}, {"id": 35378, "name": "Mohamed Katia Kouyate", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34233, "name": "Jordan Hodkin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148951, "name": "James Potter", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148953, "name": "John Marsden", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148954, "name": "Jordan Harper", "side": "home"}, {"id": 46537, "name": "Jack Barrett", "side": "home"}, {"id": 119973, "name": "Jack McIntyre", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148973, "name": "Steven James", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148958, "name": "Leigh Whelan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148964, "name": "Harvey Gregson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148960, "name": "Matthew McDonald", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42721, "name": "Jack Hazlehurst", "side": "home"}, {"id": 129637, "name": "Sonny Hilton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148959, "name": "Jamie Morton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148962, "name": "Michael Girvan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 92662, "name": "Mateusz Hewelt", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92659, "name": "Alex  Mcnally", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92661, "name": "Ben Chu Say", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92660, "name": "Bobby Bjork", "side": "away"}, {"id": 37597, "name": "Callum Edwards", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92657, "name": "Chris Doyle", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92644, "name": "Craig Noone", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92648, "name": "David Morgan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92643, "name": "Ben Elliott", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92641, "name": "Ewan Bange", "side": "away"}, {"id": 72680, "name": "Devarn Green", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92656, "name": "Luke Burke", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92655, "name": "Evan Gumbs", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92653, "name": "Lewis Earl", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92652, "name": "Scott Butler", "side": "away"}, {"id": 106073, "name": "Zayn Sadiq", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92640, "name": "Josh Amis", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92642, "name": "Jonas Mukuna", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92645, "name": "Josh Vela", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92646, "name": "Joe Rodwell-Grant", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92649, "name": "Jordan Scanlon", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92650, "name": "Jack Goodwin", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92651, "name": "Kallan  Murphy", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4698, "home_id": 3547, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 92662, "name": "Mateusz Hewelt", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 92659, "name": "Alex  Mcnally", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 92661, "name": "Ben Chu Say", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 92660, "name": "Bobby Bjork", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 37597, "name": "Callum Edwards", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 92657, "name": "Chris Doyle", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 92644, "name": "Craig Noone", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 92648, "name": "David Morgan", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 92643, "name": "Ben Elliott", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 92641, "name": "Ewan Bange", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 72680, "name": "Devarn Green", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 148974, "name": "Dean Porter", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 122936, "name": "Finlay Sinclair-Smith", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 122937, "name": "Josh Wardle", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115375, "name": "Adam Anson", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 121028, "name": "Charlie Jolley", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 73426, "name": "Alfie Bairstow", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 115180, "name": "Ben Darby", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 33889, "name": "Conor McAleny", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 148956, "name": "Harry Huby", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 148975, "name": "George Kattah", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 117822, "name": "George Newell", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-4-2", "confidence": 0.009}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 121028, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Charlie Jolley", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Marine AFC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 148975, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "George Kattah", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Marine AFC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 92643, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ben Elliott", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Warrington Town FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 92641, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Ewan Bange", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Warrington Town FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4284, "event": {"id": 604892, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Warrington Town FC", "home_team": "Marine AFC", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 4698, "home_team_id": 3547}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5196}, "created_at": "2026-10-01T00:05:20Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 52}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [{"drivers": [{"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Bobby Grant is 4 games into the job at Marine AFC. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.1, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 3, "manager": "Bobby Grant", "tenure_days": 71, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 3, "before_ppm": 1.5}}, "strength": 0.233}], "narrative": "Warrington Town FC are in real trouble heading into this FA Cup tie. Paul Carden is still settling in as manager, and his side travel badly after losing three of their last six games. They line up in a 4-3-3 formation with Ben Elliott and Ewan Bange expected to start up front, while Mateusz Hewelt starts in goal. In contrast, Marine AFC look formidable. Manager Bobby Grant is still settling in too, but his team have won five of their last six matches. Operating in a 4-4-2, Marine AFC have Dean Porter in goal, with Charlie Jolley, George Kattah and George Newell expected to start up front.", "set_aside": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Paul Carden is 8 games into the job at Warrington Town FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Paul Carden", "tenure_days": 78, "matches_in_charge": 8, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 0.78}}, "strength": 0.3}]}], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.246, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871813, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.8533220196226134, "lambda_home": 1.6590729521214143, "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "locked_calls": 1, "lineup_status": "predicted"}