{"id": 604891, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Real Bedford", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2.17, "record": "4-1-1", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWDWWW", "goals_for": 4.5, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 3}, "home": {"ppg": 2, "record": "4-0-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWWLWW", "goals_for": 2.83, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.5}}, "home": "Chesham United", "pass": "Passing on Chesham United v Real Bedford. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Chesham United to edge it, with goals"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Real Bedford have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 4.5 and conceding 3.0, and 3.00 a game on the road.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#41413e", "home": "#147940"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 4060, "home": 5397}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": null, "home": {"id": 3706, "vs": null, "name": "Michael Murray"}}}, "lambda": [2.21, 1.77], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Chesham United report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Real Bedford report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 1}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Michael Murray is 3 games into the job at Chesham United. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 3.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2, "manager": "Michael Murray", "tenure_days": 68, "matches_in_charge": 3, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2, "before_ppm": 1.5}}, "strength": 0.35}, {"id": "manager.away", "note": "No manager record for Real Bedford, so regime state cannot be read.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Chesham United come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Real Bedford come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.936632233166224 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.135, "shrunk": 0.82, "defence": 0.071, "effective_matches": 1.8}, "home": {"attack": 0.281, "shrunk": 0.9, "defence": -0.019, "effective_matches": 0.9}, "sample": 0.936632233166224, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 7, "home_matches": 9}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Chesham United's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 9}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Real Bedford's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 7}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 122958, "name": "Scott Shulton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115132, "name": "Connor Stevens", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115133, "name": "Callum Adebiyi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115134, "name": "Alexander Lafleur", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115138, "name": "Omar Rowe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115140, "name": "Steve Brown", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115139, "name": "Ryan Upward", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115142, "name": "Connor Roberts", "side": "home"}, {"id": 137827, "name": "Alfie Williams", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115135, "name": "Mitchell Weiss", "side": "home"}, {"id": 130150, "name": "Craig Fasanmade", "side": "home"}, {"id": 115247, "name": "Alfie Young", "side": "home"}, {"id": 185609, "name": "Aaron Lacey", "side": "home"}, {"id": 205328, "name": "Joseph Adeleke Oluwagbemiga Adewunmi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143101, "name": "Joseph Adewunmi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143096, "name": "Karl Oliyide", "side": "home"}, {"id": 121807, "name": "Hisham Kasimu", "side": "home"}, {"id": 166628, "name": "Matthew McClure", "side": "home"}, {"id": 122974, "name": "Alex Babos", "side": "home"}, {"id": 122694, "name": "Matthew Lench", "side": "home"}, {"id": 28870, "name": "Joe Andrews", "side": "home"}, {"id": 139269, "name": "Giorgio Rasulo", "side": "home"}, {"id": 143098, "name": "Jayden Bennetts", "side": "home"}, {"id": 74922, "name": "Lordon Akolbire", "side": "home"}, {"id": 84424, "name": "Craig King", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84409, "name": "Andi Thanoj", "side": "away"}, {"id": 150914, "name": "Eddie Corbit", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84408, "name": "Elliot Simmons", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84419, "name": "Gavin Hoyte", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84411, "name": "Archie Jones", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84412, "name": "Ben Stevens", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84416, "name": "Charlie Smith", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84407, "name": "Conor Tee", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84403, "name": "Jack Snelus", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84405, "name": "Joey Evans", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84417, "name": "Jack Davies", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84421, "name": "Jack Morrell", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84423, "name": "Malachi Soile", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84418, "name": "Samuel Cartwright", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84422, "name": "Shaheim Ward", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84401, "name": "Tom Hitchcock", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84400, "name": "Josh Allen", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84406, "name": "Sam Collins", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45723, "name": "Jordan Ponticelli", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84413, "name": "Drew Richardson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84414, "name": "Eddie Corbit", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84415, "name": "Joshua Setchell", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84410, "name": "Stuart Sinclair", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4060, "home_id": 5397, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 84424, "name": "Craig King", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 84409, "name": "Andi Thanoj", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 150914, "name": "Eddie Corbit", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 84408, "name": "Elliot Simmons", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84419, "name": "Gavin Hoyte", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 84411, "name": "Archie Jones", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84412, "name": "Ben Stevens", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84416, "name": "Charlie Smith", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84407, "name": "Conor Tee", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84403, "name": "Jack Snelus", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 84405, "name": "Joey Evans", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-3", "confidence": 0}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 122958, "name": "Scott Shulton", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 115132, "name": "Connor Stevens", "ai_score": 0.271, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115133, "name": "Callum Adebiyi", "ai_score": 0.241, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115134, "name": "Alexander Lafleur", "ai_score": 0.208, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115138, "name": "Omar Rowe", "ai_score": 0.185, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 115140, "name": "Steve Brown", "ai_score": 0.142, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 115139, "name": "Ryan Upward", "ai_score": 0.174, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 115142, "name": "Connor Roberts", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 137827, "name": "Alfie Williams", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 115135, "name": "Mitchell Weiss", "ai_score": 0.245, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 130150, "name": "Craig Fasanmade", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "3-4-3", "confidence": 0.073}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 115135, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Mitchell Weiss", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Chesham United", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 130150, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Craig Fasanmade", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Chesham United", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 84403, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Jack Snelus", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Real Bedford", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "AM", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 84405, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Joey Evans", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Real Bedford", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4285, "event": {"id": 604891, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Real Bedford", "home_team": "Chesham United", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 4060, "home_team_id": 5397}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5224}, "created_at": "2026-10-01T00:05:20Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 52.2}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.22, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871813, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.7686627830069503, "lambda_home": 2.209884645299402, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was over 3.5 goals at 2.23, where the model confidence of 22% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}