{"id": 604886, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Chester FC", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 2.17, "record": "4-1-1", "streak": "unbeaten 4", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WLWWDW", "goals_for": 1.33, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 4, "goals_against": 0.33}, "home": {"ppg": 1.5, "record": "3-0-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WLLLWW", "goals_for": 2, "venue_ppg": 1, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.67}}, "home": "Spennymoor Town", "plan": "monthly", "rank": 6, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.away", "note": "Chester FC have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3, and 3.00 a game on the road.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#0d589b", "home": "#ac4c24"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 1888, "home": 1886}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2005, "vs": null, "name": "Phil Parkinson"}, "home": {"id": 3428, "vs": null, "name": "Tommy Miller"}}}, "lambda": [1.98, 1.4], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Spennymoor Town report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Chester FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.05, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.95}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Tommy Miller is 2 games into the job at Spennymoor Town. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 4.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 3, "manager": "Tommy Miller", "tenure_days": 64, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 3, "before_ppm": 0.9}}, "strength": 0.467}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Phil Parkinson is 9 games into the job at Chester FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.78, "manager": "Phil Parkinson", "tenure_days": 337, "matches_in_charge": 9, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.78, "before_ppm": 0.7}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Spennymoor Town come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Chester FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.03995464182955 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.018, "shrunk": 0.88, "defence": 0.049, "effective_matches": 1}, "home": {"attack": 0.139, "shrunk": 0.88, "defence": 0.096, "effective_matches": 1}, "sample": 1.03995464182955, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Possession data is missing for at least one side, so the style matchup cannot be read.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away_matches": 9, "home_matches": 8}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Spennymoor Town's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 8}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Chester FC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 9}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": true, "people": [{"id": 45643, "name": "Brad James", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45639, "name": "Ben Beals", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45634, "name": "Ben Pollock", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45638, "name": "Daniel Jones", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63399, "name": "Frankie Whelan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45625, "name": "Matthew Dolan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45626, "name": "Cameron Salkeld", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45622, "name": "Glen Taylor", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45628, "name": "Robert Ramshaw", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45632, "name": "Junior Mondal", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63397, "name": "Richie Bennett", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43148, "name": "Louis Stephenson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45623, "name": "Oliver Green", "side": "home"}, {"id": 212031, "name": "Cole  Raine", "side": "home"}, {"id": 152475, "name": "Harley James Dawson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42738, "name": "Sam Murray", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88227, "name": "Danny Johnson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 36206, "name": "Aiden Marsh", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45624, "name": "Kingston Butler", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33717, "name": "Zachariah Hadi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 160498, "name": "Matthew Urwin", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63398, "name": "George Cantrill", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43550, "name": "Jack Jenkins", "side": "home"}, {"id": 127823, "name": "Jack Young", "side": "home"}, {"id": 36093, "name": "Luke Hewitson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43248, "name": "Nathan Woodthorpe", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43242, "name": "Declan Weeks", "side": "away"}, {"id": 8466, "name": "Jake Griffin", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43244, "name": "Connor Woods", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75837, "name": "Connor Murphy", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45612, "name": "Dan Ward", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43241, "name": "Jack Bainbridge", "side": "away"}, {"id": 34272, "name": "Billy Waters", "side": "away"}, {"id": 53480, "name": "Jacob Hazel", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43238, "name": "Tom Peers", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75839, "name": "Dan Kennedy", "side": "away"}, {"id": 53481, "name": "George Burroughs", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43255, "name": "Isaac Burgess", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75836, "name": "Kofi Moore", "side": "away"}, {"id": 43239, "name": "Oskar Rosenblatt", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42939, "name": "Sam Reed", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42699, "name": "Ben Lomax", "side": "away"}, {"id": 185610, "name": "Jefferson Ferreira de Abreu", "side": "away"}, {"id": 34214, "name": "Sam Foley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 215587, "name": "Wesley Frimpong", "side": "away"}, {"id": 60943, "name": "Dominic McHale", "side": "away"}, {"id": 83437, "name": "Joe Boggan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 117161, "name": "Ma'kel Bogle-Campbell", "side": "away"}, {"id": 34171, "name": "Ruben Butt", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143103, "name": "Carrick Murphy", "side": "away"}, {"id": 154276, "name": "Dan Kennedy", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 1888, "home_id": 1886, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 36093, "name": "Luke Hewitson", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 43248, "name": "Nathan Woodthorpe", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43242, "name": "Declan Weeks", "ai_score": 0.015, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 8466, "name": "Jake Griffin", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43244, "name": "Connor Woods", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 75837, "name": "Connor Murphy", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45612, "name": "Dan Ward", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 43241, "name": "Jack Bainbridge", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 34272, "name": "Billy Waters", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 53480, "name": "Jacob Hazel", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 43238, "name": "Tom Peers", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 75839, "name": "Dan Kennedy", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 53481, "name": "George Burroughs", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 43255, "name": "Isaac Burgess", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 75836, "name": "Kofi Moore", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 43239, "name": "Oskar Rosenblatt", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 42939, "name": "Sam Reed", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "3-4-1-2", "confidence": 0.068}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 45643, "name": "Brad James", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 45639, "name": "Ben Beals", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45634, "name": "Ben Pollock", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45638, "name": "Daniel Jones", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 63399, "name": "Frankie Whelan", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45625, "name": "Matthew Dolan", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45626, "name": "Cameron Salkeld", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45622, "name": "Glen Taylor", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 45628, "name": "Robert Ramshaw", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45632, "name": "Junior Mondal", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 63397, "name": "Richie Bennett", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 43148, "name": "Louis Stephenson", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 45623, "name": "Oliver Green", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.05}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.05, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 45622, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Glen Taylor", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Spennymoor Town", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": ["trait_2", "trait_1"], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 63397, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Richie Bennett", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Spennymoor Town", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 34272, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Billy Waters", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Chester FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 53480, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Jacob Hazel", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Chester FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4273, "event": {"id": 604886, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Chester FC", "home_team": "Spennymoor Town", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 1888, "home_team_id": 1886}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.3911}, "created_at": "2026-09-30T18:05:17Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 39.1}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [{"drivers": [{"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Tommy Miller is 2 games into the job at Spennymoor Town. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 4.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 3, "manager": "Tommy Miller", "tenure_days": 64, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 3, "before_ppm": 0.9}}, "strength": 0.467}], "narrative": "Spennymoor Town are in for a miserable afternoon in this FA Cup clash. Spennymoor Town are oddly poor at home. Their new manager, Tommy Miller, took over only two games ago. He lines up his team in a 4-2-3-1 system with Brad James in goal, while Glen Taylor and Richie Bennett are expected to start up front. They face a dangerous Chester FC side. Phil Parkinson manages Chester FC, and though he is still settling in, his side travel well. Parkinson will start Luke Hewitson in goal, setting up in a 3-4-1-2 system with Billy Waters, Jacob Hazel and Tom Peers starting up front. Spennymoor Town look too vulnerable to survive here.", "set_aside": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.05, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.95}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Phil Parkinson is 9 games into the job at Chester FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.78, "manager": "Phil Parkinson", "tenure_days": 337, "matches_in_charge": 9, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.78, "before_ppm": 0.7}}, "strength": 0.3}]}], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.228, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871816, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.4042351298842948, "lambda_home": 1.9808297450685721, "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "locked_calls": 1, "lineup_status": "predicted"}