{"id": 604884, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "Scarborough Athletic", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.2, "record": "2-0-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 5, "sequence": "LLWLW", "goals_for": 0.8, "venue_ppg": 1, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1}, "home": {"ppg": 2.33, "record": "4-2-0", "streak": "unbeaten 6", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WDWDWW", "goals_for": 2.33, "venue_ppg": 3, "clean_sheets": 1, "goals_against": 1.17}}, "home": "Macclesfield FC", "pass": "No call on Macclesfield FC against Scarborough Athletic. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Macclesfield FC to edge it"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "Macclesfield FC have taken 2.33 points a game from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.2, and 3.00 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#991d2c", "home": "#193967"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 4732, "home": 1867}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2796, "vs": null, "name": "Jonathan Greening"}, "home": {"id": 1233, "vs": null, "name": "John Richard Rooney"}}}, "lambda": [1.6, 1.54], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Macclesfield FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Scarborough Athletic report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.123, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.877}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.settling", "note": "John Richard Rooney is 9 games into the job at Macclesfield FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 2, "manager": "John Richard Rooney", "tenure_days": 230, "matches_in_charge": 9, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2, "before_ppm": 3}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Jonathan Greening is 4 games into the job at Scarborough Athletic. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 1.4, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.5, "manager": "Jonathan Greening", "tenure_days": 71, "matches_in_charge": 4, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 0.4}}, "strength": 0.233}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Macclesfield FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Scarborough Athletic come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.936479489674314 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.035, "shrunk": 0.9, "defence": 0.104, "effective_matches": 0.9}, "home": {"attack": 0.023, "shrunk": 0.83, "defence": 0.033, "effective_matches": 1.6}, "sample": 0.936479489674314, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": null, "corners": 6, "matches": 5, "possession": 50, "xg_per_shot": null, "finishing_vs_xg": null, "corners_per_shot": null}, "home": {"shots": 14.3, "corners": 3.6, "matches": 12, "possession": 45, "xg_per_shot": 0.114, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.62, "corners_per_shot": 0.251}, "sample": 5, "required": 6, "possession_gap": -5}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Macclesfield FC have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"sample": 5, "matches": 12, "required": 6, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.62}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Scarborough Athletic's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 5}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 63252, "name": "Christian Dibble", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42678, "name": "Luis Lacey", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42676, "name": "Sam Heathcote", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42684, "name": "Cameron Borthwick-Jackson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42680, "name": "Luke Duffy", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34271, "name": "Josh Kay", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42686, "name": "Carlos Dos Santos", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42681, "name": "Paul Dawson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42932, "name": "Elliot Osborne", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42685, "name": "Luke Matheson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45750, "name": "Adan George", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45765, "name": "Ammar Dyer", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43243, "name": "Finley Shrimpton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 52729, "name": "George Wilson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 79514, "name": "Hassan Ayub", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63251, "name": "Jonathan Ustabasi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 52730, "name": "Lincoln McFayden", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48757, "name": "Theo Chapman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 79515, "name": "Tom Wilson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42781, "name": "Brandon Lee", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45758, "name": "Ed Ikpakwu", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42779, "name": "Danny Elliott", "side": "home"}, {"id": 148859, "name": "Veron Parny", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43169, "name": "Paul Cooper", "side": "home"}, {"id": 209282, "name": "Matthew Apter", "side": "home"}, {"id": 84593, "name": "Ryan Whitley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84592, "name": "Alex Brown", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84589, "name": "Kieran Weledji", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84585, "name": "Alex Purver", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92481, "name": "Jack Waldron", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84587, "name": "Alex Wiles", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84586, "name": "Lewis Maloney", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84583, "name": "Dom Tear", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84582, "name": "Harry Green", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84581, "name": "Luca Colville", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46337, "name": "Luke Hall", "side": "away"}, {"id": 215826, "name": "Emilio Colangelo Cole", "side": "away"}, {"id": 212632, "name": "Harrison  Mills", "side": "away"}, {"id": 92482, "name": "William Thornton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84590, "name": "Jake Hull", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84591, "name": "Michael Duckworth", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84584, "name": "Rio Allan", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46503, "name": "Mo Fadera", "side": "away"}, {"id": 211369, "name": "Alfie Bradshaw", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84588, "name": "Luca Stuttard", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4732, "home_id": 1867, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 84593, "name": "Ryan Whitley", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 84592, "name": "Alex Brown", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 84589, "name": "Kieran Weledji", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 84585, "name": "Alex Purver", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 92481, "name": "Jack Waldron", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84587, "name": "Alex Wiles", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84586, "name": "Lewis Maloney", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84583, "name": "Dom Tear", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84582, "name": "Harry Green", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 84581, "name": "Luca Colville", "ai_score": 0.017, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 46337, "name": "Luke Hall", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}], "formation": "3-5-1-1", "confidence": 0.123}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 63252, "name": "Christian Dibble", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 42678, "name": "Luis Lacey", "ai_score": 0.357, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42676, "name": "Sam Heathcote", "ai_score": 0.31, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42684, "name": "Cameron Borthwick-Jackson", "ai_score": 0.236, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42680, "name": "Luke Duffy", "ai_score": 0.326, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 34271, "name": "Josh Kay", "ai_score": 0.211, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42686, "name": "Carlos Dos Santos", "ai_score": 0.122, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42681, "name": "Paul Dawson", "ai_score": 0.325, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42932, "name": "Elliot Osborne", "ai_score": 0.225, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42685, "name": "Luke Matheson", "ai_score": 0.144, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45750, "name": "Adan George", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 45765, "name": "Ammar Dyer", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 43243, "name": "Finley Shrimpton", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 52729, "name": "George Wilson", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 79514, "name": "Hassan Ayub", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 63251, "name": "Jonathan Ustabasi", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 52730, "name": "Lincoln McFayden", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 48757, "name": "Theo Chapman", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 79515, "name": "Tom Wilson", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-1-4-1", "confidence": 0.164}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.123, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 45750, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Adan George", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Macclesfield FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4286, "event": {"id": 604884, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Scarborough Athletic", "home_team": "Macclesfield FC", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 4732, "home_team_id": 1867}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5368}, "created_at": "2026-10-01T00:05:20Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 53.7}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.279, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871817, "corner_rate": 10.71, "lambda_away": 1.5416875296485806, "lambda_home": 1.5997653279775663, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was over 2.5 goals at 2.00, where the model confidence of 28% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}