{"id": 604883, "h2h": {"draws": 0, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_goals": null, "home_goals": null, "away_win_rate": null, "home_win_rate": null, "total_matches": 0, "recent_matches": [], "avg_total_goals": null}, "away": "South Shields", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.8, "record": "3-0-2", "streak": "won 3", "matches": 5, "sequence": "LLWWW", "goals_for": 2.8, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.2}, "home": {"ppg": 2, "record": "4-0-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWWLWW", "goals_for": 1.17, "venue_ppg": 2.25, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 1.33}}, "home": "Buxton FC", "pass": "Nothing to take on Buxton FC against South Shields. It is too close to call with any conviction.", "rank": 6, "read": {"side": null, "text": "Too close to call"}, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "market.movement", "note": "Since opening, AWAY has shortened 53.8% since the market opened.", "section": "§7.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#871f42", "home": "#0a4f76"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 1871, "home": 1877}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 3253, "vs": null, "name": "Mike Williamson"}, "home": {"id": 1243, "vs": null, "name": "John   McGrath"}}}, "lambda": [1.58, 1.76], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Buxton FC report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "South Shields report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.055, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.945}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.settling", "note": "John   McGrath is 7 games into the job at Buxton FC, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.71, "manager": "John   McGrath", "tenure_days": 302, "matches_in_charge": 7, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.71, "before_ppm": 1.6}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "manager.away.bounce", "note": "Mike Williamson is 2 games into the job at South Shields. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 2.8, "side": "away", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 3, "manager": "Mike Williamson", "tenure_days": 64, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 3, "before_ppm": 0.6}}, "strength": 0.467}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Buxton FC come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "South Shields come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 1.0406059635869 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.196, "shrunk": 0.88, "defence": 0.051, "effective_matches": 1}, "home": {"attack": -0.041, "shrunk": 0.87, "defence": 0.078, "effective_matches": 1.2}, "sample": 1.0406059635869, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "South Shields average 11 points more possession than Buxton FC, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 7, "corners": 1.7, "matches": 5, "possession": 61, "xg_per_shot": 0.037, "finishing_vs_xg": 2.54, "corners_per_shot": 0.238}, "home": {"shots": null, "corners": 8, "matches": 8, "possession": 50, "xg_per_shot": null, "finishing_vs_xg": null, "corners_per_shot": null}, "sample": 5, "required": 6, "possession_gap": -11}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "No chance data on record for Buxton FC's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 8}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "South Shields have scored 13 more than the chances they made over 5 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"sample": 5, "matches": 5, "required": 6, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 2.54}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 92776, "name": "Harry Evans", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43160, "name": "Sam Robinson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43151, "name": "Connor Kirby", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43154, "name": "Will Trueman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43163, "name": "Kieran Burton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 142319, "name": "Aaron O'Reilly", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43155, "name": "Archie Bingham", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43150, "name": "Johnny Johnston", "side": "home"}, {"id": 48115, "name": "Ashton Mee", "side": "home"}, {"id": 63697, "name": "Dylan Mantle", "side": "home"}, {"id": 185568, "name": "Josh Pescatore", "side": "home"}, {"id": 92654, "name": "Josh Shaw", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43880, "name": "Sisa Tuntulwana", "side": "home"}, {"id": 58872, "name": "George Cooper", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62155, "name": "Luke Daley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 142321, "name": "Benjamin Grist", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7087, "name": "Gui Siqueira", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43167, "name": "Harry Balfe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 142320, "name": "Liam Brockbank", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33898, "name": "Noah Wadsworth", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33845, "name": "Owen Devonport", "side": "home"}, {"id": 6825, "name": "Logan Stretch", "side": "home"}, {"id": 30024, "name": "Finn Cousin-Dawson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93773, "name": "Tony Weston", "side": "home"}, {"id": 29389, "name": "Kian Scales", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42690, "name": "Max Woltman", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33741, "name": "Ashton Mee", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43156, "name": "Will Johnson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 45621, "name": "Jasper Sheik", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45617, "name": "Daniel Dodds", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45620, "name": "Dillon Morse", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45618, "name": "Robbie Tinkler", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45619, "name": "Cain Sykes", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45610, "name": "David Carson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45607, "name": "Caden Kelly", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45606, "name": "Sean McGurk", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45751, "name": "Khanya Leshabela", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45602, "name": "Paul Blackett", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45603, "name": "Cedwyn Scott", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46429, "name": "Dan  Savage", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45616, "name": "Ethan Mann", "side": "away"}, {"id": 13325, "name": "Jordan Marshall", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45604, "name": "Kyle Crossley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 63396, "name": "Toby Onanaye", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75798, "name": "Colin Cook", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75796, "name": "Joe Harrison-Hogarth", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75795, "name": "Maddox Evitt", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75797, "name": "Oliver O'Connor", "side": "away"}, {"id": 6179, "name": "Joe Emery", "side": "away"}, {"id": 84382, "name": "Rio Clegg", "side": "away"}, {"id": 74426, "name": "Sam Ashford", "side": "away"}, {"id": 13622, "name": "Chinonso Chibueze", "side": "away"}, {"id": 186248, "name": "Will Anderson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 34247, "name": "Jack Roles", "side": "away"}, {"id": 42735, "name": "Jordan Jones", "side": "away"}, {"id": 45614, "name": "Evan Blaney", "side": "away"}, {"id": 210697, "name": "Owen Jordan", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 1871, "home_id": 1877, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 45621, "name": "Jasper Sheik", "ai_score": 0.302, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 45617, "name": "Daniel Dodds", "ai_score": 0.234, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45620, "name": "Dillon Morse", "ai_score": 0.359, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45618, "name": "Robbie Tinkler", "ai_score": 0.323, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45619, "name": "Cain Sykes", "ai_score": 0.262, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 45610, "name": "David Carson", "ai_score": 0.202, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45607, "name": "Caden Kelly", "ai_score": 0.198, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45606, "name": "Sean McGurk", "ai_score": 0.217, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45751, "name": "Khanya Leshabela", "ai_score": 0.007, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 45602, "name": "Paul Blackett", "ai_score": 0.203, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 45603, "name": "Cedwyn Scott", "ai_score": 0.22, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 46429, "name": "Dan  Savage", "ai_score": 0.031, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 45616, "name": "Ethan Mann", "ai_score": 0.014, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 13325, "name": "Jordan Marshall", "ai_score": 0.007, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 45604, "name": "Kyle Crossley", "ai_score": 0.007, "position": "F", "starting": false}, {"id": 63396, "name": "Toby Onanaye", "ai_score": 0.007, "position": "M", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.147}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 92776, "name": "Harry Evans", "ai_score": 0, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 43160, "name": "Sam Robinson", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43151, "name": "Connor Kirby", "ai_score": 0.268, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 43154, "name": "Will Trueman", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 43163, "name": "Kieran Burton", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 142319, "name": "Aaron O'Reilly", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 43155, "name": "Archie Bingham", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 43150, "name": "Johnny Johnston", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 48115, "name": "Ashton Mee", "ai_score": 0, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 63697, "name": "Dylan Mantle", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 185568, "name": "Josh Pescatore", "ai_score": 0, "position": "F", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-2-3-1", "confidence": 0.055}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.055, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 43150, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Johnny Johnston", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Buxton FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": ["Through balls"], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 63697, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Dylan Mantle", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Buxton FC", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "FWD", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 45603, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Cedwyn Scott", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "South Shields", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 45602, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Paul Blackett", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "South Shields", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4127, "event": {"id": 604883, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "South Shields", "home_team": "Buxton FC", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 1871, "home_team_id": 1877}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.4586}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "A", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 45.9}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.28, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871817, "corner_rate": 10.73, "lambda_away": 1.755764719772665, "lambda_home": 1.5828099137641962, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was double chance 1X at 1.73, where the model confidence of 28% is below the threshold.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "lineup_status": "predicted"}