{"id": 604882, "h2h": {"draws": 1, "away_wins": 0, "home_wins": 3, "away_goals": 0, "home_goals": 7, "away_win_rate": 0, "home_win_rate": 0.75, "total_matches": 4, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Darlington", "date": "2010-02-13T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Morecambe", "score": "2-0", "event_id": 467659, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 4677, "home_team_id": 4756}, {"away": "Morecambe", "date": "2009-11-24T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Darlington", "score": "0-4", "event_id": 467452, "away_score": 4, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 4756, "home_team_id": 4677}, {"away": "Morecambe", "date": "2009-04-04T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Darlington", "score": "0-0", "event_id": 478948, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 4756, "home_team_id": 4677}, {"away": "Darlington", "date": "2008-12-13T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Morecambe", "score": "1-0", "event_id": 478660, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 4677, "home_team_id": 4756}], "avg_total_goals": 1.75}, "away": "Darlington", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1, "record": "2-0-4", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LLWLLW", "goals_for": 1.67, "venue_ppg": 1, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 2.33}, "home": {"ppg": 2.17, "record": "4-1-1", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WWWDLW", "goals_for": 1.5, "venue_ppg": 1.33, "clean_sheets": 4, "goals_against": 0.33}}, "home": "Morecambe", "plan": "monthly", "rank": 6, "flags": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "section": "§3.1"}, {"id": "form.home", "note": "Morecambe have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.3, and 1.33 a game at home.", "section": "§2.1"}], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#e4483b", "home": "#981616"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": null, "home": null}, "teams": {"away": 4677, "home": 4756}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 2735, "vs": null, "name": "Steve Watson"}, "home": {"id": 1254, "vs": null, "name": "Adam Lakeland"}}}, "lambda": [1.87, 1.62], "league": "FA Cup", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Morecambe report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Darlington report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.059, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.941}, {"id": "stakes.table", "note": "No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Adam Lakeland is 2 games into the job at Morecambe. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 4.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.5, "manager": "Adam Lakeland", "tenure_days": 64, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 1.7}}, "strength": 0.467}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Steve Watson is 6 games into the job at Darlington, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Steve Watson", "tenure_days": 78, "matches_in_charge": 6, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 1.5}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Morecambe come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14, "days_rest": 14, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Darlington come in on 14 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 14.104166666666666, "days_rest": 14.1, "matchesIn7": 0, "matchesIn14": 0}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.925135277040854 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.152, "shrunk": 0.9, "defence": -0.019, "effective_matches": 0.9}, "home": {"attack": 0.013, "shrunk": 0.89, "defence": 0.088, "effective_matches": 1}, "sample": 0.925135277040854, "required": 6}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": null, "corners": 3, "matches": 8, "possession": 37, "xg_per_shot": null, "finishing_vs_xg": null, "corners_per_shot": null}, "home": {"shots": 10.2, "corners": 3.3, "matches": 12, "possession": 37.8, "xg_per_shot": 0.089, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.68, "corners_per_shot": 0.327}, "possession_gap": 0.8}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Morecambe have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.68}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "No chance data on record for Darlington's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 8}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.134542947529114}, "strength": 0}], "locked": true, "people": [{"id": 93940, "name": "Myles Boney", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93937, "name": "Liam Hogan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 201431, "name": "Oscar Wright", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42654, "name": "Cameron Coxe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93933, "name": "Ben Williams", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93935, "name": "Teddy Collis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93942, "name": "Paul Lewis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93939, "name": "Adam Fairclough", "side": "home"}, {"id": 105722, "name": "Jake Cain", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42682, "name": "Isaac Buckley-Ricketts", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93936, "name": "Matty Daly", "side": "home"}, {"id": 113470, "name": "Alfie Scales", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34210, "name": "Elliot Newby", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93941, "name": "Harley Illingworth", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43168, "name": "Joe Young", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42942, "name": "Lewis Baines", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43240, "name": "Lewis Leigh", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93934, "name": "Taelor O'Kane", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43563, "name": "William Smith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93943, "name": "Conan Newall", "side": "home"}, {"id": 201449, "name": "Corey Goodyear", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93944, "name": "Elijah Vilchez", "side": "home"}, {"id": 93938, "name": "Ronnie Blois", "side": "home"}, {"id": 36793, "name": "Joe Garner", "side": "home"}, {"id": 207465, "name": "Alex Cherera", "side": "home"}, {"id": 149391, "name": "Lennon Dobson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 149390, "name": "Oscar Wright", "side": "home"}, {"id": 8581, "name": "Ruben Curley", "side": "home"}, {"id": 43258, "name": "Bobby Jones", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75823, "name": "Ben Hedley", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75824, "name": "Toby Lees", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75825, "name": "Max Kilsby", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93797, "name": "Alfie Myers-Smith", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75826, "name": "Tom Platt", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93794, "name": "Will Hatfield", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75827, "name": "Ellis Stanton", "side": "away"}, {"id": 75828, "name": "Aidan Rutledge", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46508, "name": "Mark Beck", "side": "away"}, {"id": 48123, "name": "Sam Hetherington", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93802, "name": "Motaz Al Bistamy", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93803, "name": "Jack Mortimer", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93795, "name": "Scott Barrow", "side": "away"}, {"id": 113607, "name": "Brad Walker", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143755, "name": "Thomas Bryant", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93800, "name": "Dylan Wilkinson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143757, "name": "Dylan Wilkinson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93799, "name": "Dylan Wilkinson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 33676, "name": "Logan Pye", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93790, "name": "Dylan Stephenson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 142439, "name": "Amaru Smith", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143758, "name": "Thomas Henson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93791, "name": "Matthiew Kirokiro", "side": "away"}, {"id": 143759, "name": "Liam Mason", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93793, "name": "Max Howells", "side": "away"}, {"id": 93792, "name": "Ciaran Thompson", "side": "away"}, {"id": 46268, "name": "Patrick McLaughlin", "side": "away"}, {"id": 214120, "name": "Jacob Render", "side": "away"}, {"id": 48458, "name": "Ethan Fitzhugh", "side": "away"}], "status": "notstarted", "away_id": 4677, "home_id": 4756, "kickoff": 1791036000, "lineups": {"away": {"players": [{"id": 43258, "name": "Bobby Jones", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 75823, "name": "Ben Hedley", "ai_score": 0.015, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 75824, "name": "Toby Lees", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 75825, "name": "Max Kilsby", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 93797, "name": "Alfie Myers-Smith", "ai_score": 0, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 75826, "name": "Tom Platt", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 93794, "name": "Will Hatfield", "ai_score": 0.28, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 75827, "name": "Ellis Stanton", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 75828, "name": "Aidan Rutledge", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 46508, "name": "Mark Beck", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "F", "starting": true}, {"id": 48123, "name": "Sam Hetherington", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}], "formation": "4-3-2-1", "confidence": 0.059}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 93940, "name": "Myles Boney", "ai_score": 0.26, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 93937, "name": "Liam Hogan", "ai_score": 0.396, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 201431, "name": "Oscar Wright", "ai_score": 0.216, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 42654, "name": "Cameron Coxe", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 93933, "name": "Ben Williams", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 93935, "name": "Teddy Collis", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 93942, "name": "Paul Lewis", "ai_score": 0.37, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 93939, "name": "Adam Fairclough", "ai_score": 0.16, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 105722, "name": "Jake Cain", "ai_score": 0.13, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 42682, "name": "Isaac Buckley-Ricketts", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 93936, "name": "Matty Daly", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": true}, {"id": 113470, "name": "Alfie Scales", "ai_score": 0.01, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 34210, "name": "Elliot Newby", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 93941, "name": "Harley Illingworth", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 43168, "name": "Joe Young", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 42942, "name": "Lewis Baines", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 43240, "name": "Lewis Leigh", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 93934, "name": "Taelor O'Kane", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 43563, "name": "William Smith", "ai_score": 0.005, "position": "D", "starting": false}], "formation": "5-3-2", "confidence": 0.141}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.059, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 142138, "name": "Kareem Hassan-Smith", "rank": 1, "goals": 2}], "players": [{"id": 75828, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Aidan Rutledge", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Darlington", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 46508, "club": null, "load": null, "name": "Mark Beck", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Darlington", "reason": null, "recent": null, "season": null, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": null, "strengths": [], "importance": 0, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4271, "event": {"id": 604882, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Darlington", "home_team": "Morecambe", "league_id": 39, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "FA Cup", "away_team_id": 4677, "home_team_id": 4756}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.4542}, "created_at": "2026-09-30T18:05:17Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 45.4}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [{"drivers": [{"id": "manager.home.bounce", "note": "Adam Lakeland is 2 games into the job at Morecambe. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.", "tier": 3, "moves": [{"pct": 4.2, "side": "home", "channel": "goals"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.5, "manager": "Adam Lakeland", "tenure_days": 64, "matches_in_charge": 2, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.5, "before_ppm": 1.7}}, "strength": 0.467}], "narrative": "This cup tie has a surprise written all over it. Morecambe are oddly poor at home, which gives the visitors a real chance. Adam Lakeland took over at Morecambe only two games ago. He lines up his side in a 5-3-2 system, with Myles Boney expected to start in goal. They face a struggling opponent. Steve Watson is still settling in at Darlington, who line up 4-3-2-1. Bobby Jones is expected to start in goal for the away side, while Aidan Rutledge and Mark Beck are expected to start up front. It will be a tight tactical battle.", "set_aside": [{"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.059, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.941}, {"id": "manager.away.settling", "note": "Steve Watson is 6 games into the job at Darlington, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1, "manager": "Steve Watson", "tenure_days": 78, "matches_in_charge": 6, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1, "before_ppm": 1.5}}, "strength": 0.3}]}], "card_rate": 0.014, "league_id": 39, "published": [], "standings": null, "confidence": 0.249, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871818, "corner_rate": 10.88, "lambda_away": 1.6169167844481247, "lambda_home": 1.8673104932789268, "provisional": true, "round_label": "Qualification Round 3", "locked_calls": 1, "lineup_status": "predicted"}