{"id":603932,"league_id":97,"league":"Challenger Pro League","kickoff":1793386800,"home":"RFC Seraing","away":"RFC Liège","home_id":4662,"away_id":1828,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.503,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[2,1.48],"read":null,"pass":"Nothing to take on RFC Seraing against RFC Liège. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"RFC Liège have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.8, and 0.50 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":2.002572255677864,"lambda_away":1.4765804079742144,"corner_rate":9.62,"card_rate":0.365,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.586,"home":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":68609,"name":"Nick Gillekens","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.731},{"id":68611,"name":"Oussmane Kebe","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.721},{"id":4270,"name":"Moustapha Diop","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.76},{"id":42214,"name":"Victor Corneillie","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.75},{"id":95744,"name":"Emmanuel Tshimbalanga","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.605},{"id":68616,"name":"Fostave Mabani","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.432},{"id":151199,"name":"Wassim Bahri","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.545},{"id":68613,"name":"Matteo Scarpinati","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.489},{"id":95749,"name":"Saliou Faye","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.29},{"id":68617,"name":"Mahi Gnemagnon","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.507},{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.451},{"id":129714,"name":"Anas Namri","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.671},{"id":68614,"name":"Alexandre Tunkadi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.512},{"id":95751,"name":"Tom Lockman","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.484},{"id":68610,"name":"Nabil Bouchentouf","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.466},{"id":68615,"name":"Matthieu Muland","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.409},{"id":68612,"name":"Reda Aamer","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.335},{"id":151200,"name":"Valerio Di Crescenzo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":151198,"name":"Matteo Bisarre","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.268},{"id":4322,"name":"Yannis Lawson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.248},{"id":151204,"name":"Loam Gregoire","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.23},{"id":97412,"name":"Alek Bisevac","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.202},{"id":4269,"name":"Romain Jean-Baptiste","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03}],"confidence":0.586},"away":{"formation":"4-1-4-1","players":[{"id":42219,"name":"Alexis Andre Jr.","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.491},{"id":42218,"name":"Jonathan D'Ostilio","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.658},{"id":42210,"name":"Pierre-Yves Ngawa","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.746},{"id":42212,"name":"Eric N'jo","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.744},{"id":97417,"name":"Ousmane Camara","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.361},{"id":42200,"name":"Reno Wilmots","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.772},{"id":42207,"name":"Benoit Bruggeman","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.683},{"id":42197,"name":"Kays Ruiz-Atil","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.775},{"id":93893,"name":"Valentin Guillaume","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.653},{"id":42203,"name":"Simon Paulet","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.592},{"id":42217,"name":"Damien Mouchamps","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.458},{"id":121472,"name":"Oregan Ravet","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.429},{"id":24481,"name":"Ryan Ogam","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.407},{"id":74421,"name":"Nacim Dendani","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.351},{"id":42202,"name":"Kevin Shkurti","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.318},{"id":42205,"name":"Stephen Reynaerts","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":151196,"name":"Harrison Ondo-Eyi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.265},{"id":186162,"name":"Ilunga Kitoko","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.244},{"id":88143,"name":"Arnold Qevani","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.229},{"id":205597,"name":"Adham Refai","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.219},{"id":63355,"name":"Afonso N'Salambi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.205},{"id":42198,"name":"Kylian Hazard","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.15},{"id":186161,"name":"Naël Lawson","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04}],"confidence":0.691},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":68609,"name":"Nick Gillekens","side":"home"},{"id":68611,"name":"Oussmane Kebe","side":"home"},{"id":4270,"name":"Moustapha Diop","side":"home"},{"id":42214,"name":"Victor Corneillie","side":"home"},{"id":95744,"name":"Emmanuel Tshimbalanga","side":"home"},{"id":68616,"name":"Fostave Mabani","side":"home"},{"id":151199,"name":"Wassim Bahri","side":"home"},{"id":68613,"name":"Matteo Scarpinati","side":"home"},{"id":95749,"name":"Saliou Faye","side":"home"},{"id":68617,"name":"Mahi Gnemagnon","side":"home"},{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","side":"home"},{"id":129714,"name":"Anas Namri","side":"home"},{"id":68614,"name":"Alexandre Tunkadi","side":"home"},{"id":95751,"name":"Tom Lockman","side":"home"},{"id":68610,"name":"Nabil Bouchentouf","side":"home"},{"id":68615,"name":"Matthieu Muland","side":"home"},{"id":68612,"name":"Reda Aamer","side":"home"},{"id":151200,"name":"Valerio Di Crescenzo","side":"home"},{"id":151198,"name":"Matteo Bisarre","side":"home"},{"id":4322,"name":"Yannis Lawson","side":"home"},{"id":151204,"name":"Loam Gregoire","side":"home"},{"id":97412,"name":"Alek Bisevac","side":"home"},{"id":4269,"name":"Romain Jean-Baptiste","side":"home"},{"id":151203,"name":"Relja Biševac","side":"home"},{"id":151205,"name":"Yanis Gregoire","side":"home"},{"id":151206,"name":"Leny Ngombo Mbamba","side":"home"},{"id":151202,"name":"Emmanuel Da Costa","side":"home"},{"id":151201,"name":"Antoine Lommel","side":"home"},{"id":151197,"name":"Nils Velleuer","side":"home"},{"id":95740,"name":"Boris Ngoua","side":"home"},{"id":218628,"name":"Yani Rutkowski","side":"home"},{"id":218627,"name":"Lucas Brulmans","side":"home"},{"id":42219,"name":"Alexis Andre Jr.","side":"away"},{"id":42218,"name":"Jonathan D'Ostilio","side":"away"},{"id":42210,"name":"Pierre-Yves Ngawa","side":"away"},{"id":42212,"name":"Eric N'jo","side":"away"},{"id":97417,"name":"Ousmane Camara","side":"away"},{"id":42200,"name":"Reno Wilmots","side":"away"},{"id":42207,"name":"Benoit Bruggeman","side":"away"},{"id":42197,"name":"Kays Ruiz-Atil","side":"away"},{"id":93893,"name":"Valentin Guillaume","side":"away"},{"id":42203,"name":"Simon Paulet","side":"away"},{"id":42217,"name":"Damien Mouchamps","side":"away"},{"id":121472,"name":"Oregan Ravet","side":"away"},{"id":24481,"name":"Ryan Ogam","side":"away"},{"id":74421,"name":"Nacim Dendani","side":"away"},{"id":42202,"name":"Kevin Shkurti","side":"away"},{"id":42205,"name":"Stephen Reynaerts","side":"away"},{"id":151196,"name":"Harrison Ondo-Eyi","side":"away"},{"id":186162,"name":"Ilunga Kitoko","side":"away"},{"id":88143,"name":"Arnold Qevani","side":"away"},{"id":205597,"name":"Adham Refai","side":"away"},{"id":63355,"name":"Afonso N'Salambi","side":"away"},{"id":42198,"name":"Kylian Hazard","side":"away"},{"id":186161,"name":"Naël Lawson","side":"away"},{"id":186160,"name":"Birane Wane","side":"away"},{"id":205596,"name":"Adham Karim","side":"away"},{"id":42221,"name":"Thomas Wauters","side":"away"},{"id":63356,"name":"Joshua Mpenza","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","side":"home","team":"RFC Seraing","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":3,"starts":3,"goals":3,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":3,"assists":1,"scoredIn":3,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"KAA Gent Reserve U23","kickoff":1791738900,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"2-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","in_form"],"importance":0.143,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":68617,"name":"Mahi Gnemagnon","side":"home","team":"RFC Seraing","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":5,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.01,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":42203,"name":"Simon Paulet","side":"away","team":"RFC Liège","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":5,"starts":5,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":4,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Jong KRC Genk U23","kickoff":1787493600,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","in_form"],"importance":0.136,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":77,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":4662,"away":1828},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":1,"d":2,"l":5},"below":null},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":2,"l":5},"below":null}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":2717,"name":"Arnaud Mercier","vs":null},"away":{"id":1185,"name":"Gaetan Englebert","vs":null}},"best_xi":[{"id":129714,"name":"Anas Namri","team_id":4662,"position":"D","matches":7,"goals":1,"assists":3},{"id":42197,"name":"Kays Ruiz-Atil","team_id":1828,"position":"M","matches":8,"goals":3,"assists":2}],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":42107,"name":"Arnold Vula","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":40668,"name":"Abdelsamad Hachem","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":67294,"name":"Maxime Bastian","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":42173,"name":"Milan Robberechts","goals":4,"rank":4},{"id":110275,"name":"Myung-jun Kim","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":42203,"name":"Simon Paulet","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","goals":3,"rank":7},{"id":42105,"name":"Anas Haj Mohamed","goals":3,"rank":8},{"id":77524,"name":"Jakke Van Britsom","goals":3,"rank":9},{"id":74017,"name":"Javan Ngoyi","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":42197,"name":"Kays Ruiz-Atil","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":212310,"name":"Pape Aliya N'dao","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":42171,"name":"Radja Nainggolan","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":60809,"name":"Seok-ju Hong","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":54337,"name":"Vancy Mabanza","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 9","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":4662,"position":13,"played":8,"points":5,"goal_diff":-5,"team_name":"RFC Seraing","won":1,"drawn":2,"lost":5,"goals_for":11,"goals_against":16,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":1828,"position":14,"played":8,"points":5,"goal_diff":-8,"team_name":"RFC Liège","won":1,"drawn":2,"lost":5,"goals_for":13,"goals_against":21,"group":null},"size":15},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":1.5,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLLDLW","venue_ppg":1.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.5,"record":"0-3-3","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":2.83,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"winless 6","sequence":"DDLDLL","venue_ppg":0.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Seraing report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Liège report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.586,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.414,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":19,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":5,"games_left":19,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":8},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":5,"games_left":19,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":8},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Arnaud Mercier has 17 matches in charge at RFC Seraing, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Arnaud Mercier","matches_in_charge":17,"tenure_days":299,"ppm":0.71,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.2,"after_ppm":0.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gaetan Englebert has 19 matches in charge at RFC Liège, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Gaetan Englebert","matches_in_charge":19,"tenure_days":191,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.8,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Seraing come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.208333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Liège come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.03125,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.963944597976494 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.061,"defence":-0.005,"effective_matches":6,"shrunk":0.57},"away":{"attack":0.074,"defence":-0.191,"effective_matches":6,"shrunk":0.57},"sample":5.963944597976494,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Liège average 9 points more possession than RFC Seraing, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":40.1,"shots":10.8,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.349,"finishing_vs_xg":0.41},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.2,"shots":13.1,"xg_per_shot":0.134,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.432,"finishing_vs_xg":0.16},"possession_gap":-9.1},"strength":0.364,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":1.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.9},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Seraing have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.41,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Liège are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.16,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 141 km for RFC Liège.","evidence":{"travel_km":141},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.28335888268471865},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6246,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":603932,"event_date":"2026-10-30T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4662,"home_team":"RFC Seraing","away_team_id":1828,"away_team":"RFC Liège","league_id":97,"league_name":"Challenger Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":39.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3955,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793367057,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed2028","away":null},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}