{"id":603919,"league_id":97,"league":"Challenger Pro League","kickoff":1791727200,"home":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen","away":"Jong KRC Genk U23","home_id":1825,"away_id":3729,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.449,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.92,1.54],"read":null,"pass":"Nothing to take on Patro Eisden Maasmechelen against Jong KRC Genk U23. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen have taken 0.50 points a game from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0, and 1.00 a game at home."}],"lambda_home":1.9187724418450354,"lambda_away":1.5421844783589282,"corner_rate":10.31,"card_rate":0.364,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.432,"home":{"formation":"4-1-4-1","players":[{"id":42220,"name":"Jordi Belin","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.643},{"id":74357,"name":"Kevin Kis","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.48},{"id":41824,"name":"Lars Dietz","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.618},{"id":42185,"name":"Jordan Renson","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.595},{"id":42186,"name":"Aloïs Penin","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.316},{"id":7417,"name":"Isaías Delpupo","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.567},{"id":45443,"name":"Tsubasa Kasayanagi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.61},{"id":42175,"name":"Stef Peeters","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.564},{"id":150249,"name":"Louis Verstraete","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.537},{"id":15477,"name":"Haji Mnoga","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.541},{"id":60809,"name":"Seok-ju Hong","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.396},{"id":42171,"name":"Radja Nainggolan","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.483},{"id":7581,"name":"Sami Lahssaini","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.325},{"id":90206,"name":"Zakaria Atteri","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.32},{"id":42187,"name":"Justin Munezero","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.312},{"id":150241,"name":"Rento Takaoka","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.262},{"id":5937,"name":"Jeremy Bokila","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.177},{"id":210589,"name":"Ablie Saidiba","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.129},{"id":42189,"name":"Kjetil Borry","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.119},{"id":42191,"name":"Alesio Pano","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":7559,"name":"Koen Van Langendonck","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":107597,"name":"Abdurrahman Burak Sayin","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":63305,"name":"Hasan Jahić","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.532},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":12266,"name":"Emile Doucouré","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.552},{"id":59207,"name":"Yumeki Yoshinaga","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.541},{"id":59210,"name":"Elie Mbavu","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.544},{"id":3135,"name":"Adrian Palacios","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.317},{"id":58906,"name":"Kayden Pierre","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.542},{"id":212300,"name":"Jelle Driessen","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.56},{"id":212299,"name":"Manu Mocsnik","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.331},{"id":212301,"name":"Kiyan Achahbar","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.565},{"id":103831,"name":"Moussa Kone","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.207},{"id":58908,"name":"Djoully Nzoko","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.603},{"id":110275,"name":"Myung-jun Kim","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.54},{"id":212302,"name":"Jonathan Coenen","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.531},{"id":92036,"name":"Wout Kapers","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.392},{"id":212303,"name":"Precious Ogbeiwi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.366},{"id":212298,"name":"Daan Van Laere","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.281},{"id":76791,"name":"Mustapha Koma","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.244},{"id":59216,"name":"Alpha Barry","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.235},{"id":212306,"name":"Sami El Morabet","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.23},{"id":59212,"name":"Brad Manguelle","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.227},{"id":212304,"name":"Thierno Baldé","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.187},{"id":58907,"name":"Zion Henry","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.137},{"id":212307,"name":"Jens De Groof","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.1},{"id":212305,"name":"Mariyan Boev","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015}],"confidence":0.432},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":42220,"name":"Jordi Belin","side":"home"},{"id":74357,"name":"Kevin Kis","side":"home"},{"id":41824,"name":"Lars Dietz","side":"home"},{"id":42185,"name":"Jordan Renson","side":"home"},{"id":42186,"name":"Aloïs Penin","side":"home"},{"id":7417,"name":"Isaías Delpupo","side":"home"},{"id":45443,"name":"Tsubasa Kasayanagi","side":"home"},{"id":42175,"name":"Stef Peeters","side":"home"},{"id":150249,"name":"Louis Verstraete","side":"home"},{"id":15477,"name":"Haji Mnoga","side":"home"},{"id":60809,"name":"Seok-ju Hong","side":"home"},{"id":42171,"name":"Radja Nainggolan","side":"home"},{"id":7581,"name":"Sami Lahssaini","side":"home"},{"id":90206,"name":"Zakaria Atteri","side":"home"},{"id":42187,"name":"Justin Munezero","side":"home"},{"id":150241,"name":"Rento Takaoka","side":"home"},{"id":5937,"name":"Jeremy Bokila","side":"home"},{"id":210589,"name":"Ablie Saidiba","side":"home"},{"id":42189,"name":"Kjetil Borry","side":"home"},{"id":42191,"name":"Alesio Pano","side":"home"},{"id":7559,"name":"Koen Van Langendonck","side":"home"},{"id":107597,"name":"Abdurrahman Burak Sayin","side":"home"},{"id":63305,"name":"Hasan Jahić","side":"home"},{"id":63306,"name":"Raoul Kenne","side":"home"},{"id":75710,"name":"Jan Dahlke","side":"home"},{"id":8912,"name":"Lars Van Parys","side":"home"},{"id":42174,"name":"Jimmy Kaparos","side":"home"},{"id":42177,"name":"Tarek Loutfi","side":"home"},{"id":12266,"name":"Emile Doucouré","side":"away"},{"id":59207,"name":"Yumeki Yoshinaga","side":"away"},{"id":59210,"name":"Elie Mbavu","side":"away"},{"id":3135,"name":"Adrian Palacios","side":"away"},{"id":58906,"name":"Kayden Pierre","side":"away"},{"id":212300,"name":"Jelle Driessen","side":"away"},{"id":212299,"name":"Manu Mocsnik","side":"away"},{"id":212301,"name":"Kiyan Achahbar","side":"away"},{"id":103831,"name":"Moussa Kone","side":"away"},{"id":58908,"name":"Djoully Nzoko","side":"away"},{"id":110275,"name":"Myung-jun Kim","side":"away"},{"id":212302,"name":"Jonathan Coenen","side":"away"},{"id":92036,"name":"Wout Kapers","side":"away"},{"id":212303,"name":"Precious Ogbeiwi","side":"away"},{"id":212298,"name":"Daan Van Laere","side":"away"},{"id":76791,"name":"Mustapha Koma","side":"away"},{"id":59216,"name":"Alpha Barry","side":"away"},{"id":212306,"name":"Sami El Morabet","side":"away"},{"id":59212,"name":"Brad Manguelle","side":"away"},{"id":212304,"name":"Thierno Baldé","side":"away"},{"id":58907,"name":"Zion Henry","side":"away"},{"id":212307,"name":"Jens De Groof","side":"away"},{"id":212305,"name":"Mariyan Boev","side":"away"},{"id":212354,"name":"Tinus Moorthamer","side":"away"},{"id":36479,"name":"Victory Beniangba","side":"away"},{"id":212352,"name":"Prince N'Salambi","side":"away"},{"id":59179,"name":"Eddien Lazar","side":"away"},{"id":212351,"name":"Elie Mpungu Kongolo","side":"away"},{"id":212350,"name":"Shakhmurat Dauletov","side":"away"},{"id":212355,"name":"Vic Debusschere","side":"away"},{"id":212320,"name":"Lander Borgers","side":"away"},{"id":212353,"name":"Loïc Alvarez Fernandez","side":"away"},{"id":3134,"name":"Robin Mirisola","side":"away"},{"id":8730,"name":"August De Wannemacker","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":42171,"name":"Radja Nainggolan","side":"home","team":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":5,"starts":4,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Club NXT U23","kickoff":1788026400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.169,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":60809,"name":"Seok-ju Hong","side":"home","team":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":6,"starts":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"RSCA Futures U23","kickoff":1786802400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.069,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":110275,"name":"Myung-jun Kim","side":"away","team":"Jong KRC Genk U23","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":4,"starts":4,"goals":4,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":4,"assists":1,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"KSC Lokeren","kickoff":1787940000,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"4-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","in_form"],"importance":0.141,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":1825,"away":3729},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":5},"below":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":2,"d":0,"l":2},"below":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":1}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":1182,"name":"Stijn Stijnen","vs":null},"away":{"id":3926,"name":"Igor Camargo","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":40668,"name":"Abdelsamad Hachem","goals":6,"rank":1},{"id":42107,"name":"Arnold Vula","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":67294,"name":"Maxime Bastian","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":42173,"name":"Milan Robberechts","goals":4,"rank":4},{"id":110275,"name":"Myung-jun Kim","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":77524,"name":"Jakke Van Britsom","goals":3,"rank":6},{"id":74017,"name":"Javan Ngoyi","goals":3,"rank":7},{"id":42197,"name":"Kays Ruiz-Atil","goals":3,"rank":8},{"id":212310,"name":"Pape Aliya N'dao","goals":3,"rank":9},{"id":42203,"name":"Simon Paulet","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":7849,"name":"Alexandre Stanic","goals":2,"rank":11},{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","goals":2,"rank":12},{"id":42105,"name":"Anas Haj Mohamed","goals":2,"rank":13},{"id":90204,"name":"Ba-Muaka Simakala","goals":2,"rank":14},{"id":8904,"name":"Bo De Kerf","goals":2,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 7","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":1825,"position":13,"played":6,"points":3,"goal_diff":-5,"team_name":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen","won":1,"drawn":0,"lost":5,"goals_for":7,"goals_against":12,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":3729,"position":10,"played":6,"points":7,"goal_diff":-2,"team_name":"Jong KRC Genk U23","won":2,"drawn":1,"lost":3,"goals_for":12,"goals_against":14,"group":null},"size":15},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.5,"record":"1-0-5","goals_for":1.17,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"lost 5","sequence":"WLLLLL","venue_ppg":1},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":2.17,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLWWLD","venue_ppg":1.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jong KRC Genk U23 report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.432,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.568,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":21,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":3,"games_left":21,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":9},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":7,"games_left":21,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stijn Stijnen is 15 games into the job at Patro Eisden Maasmechelen, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Stijn Stijnen","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":172,"ppm":0.73,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.22,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Igor Camargo is 7 games into the job at Jong KRC Genk U23, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Igor Camargo","matches_in_charge":7,"tenure_days":58,"ppm":1.14,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.17,"after_ppm":1.14,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen come in on 21 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":20.864583333333332,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":20.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"Jong KRC Genk U23 have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 4.680674234863152 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.053,"defence":-0.031,"effective_matches":4.7,"shrunk":0.63},"away":{"attack":0.049,"defence":-0.162,"effective_matches":4.7,"shrunk":0.63},"sample":4.680674234863152,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Jong KRC Genk U23 work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":40.8,"shots":13.3,"xg_per_shot":0.103,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.35,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.46},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.8,"shots":11.8,"xg_per_shot":0.133,"corners":6.7,"corners_per_shot":0.563,"finishing_vs_xg":0.59},"possession_gap":-6.1},"strength":0.242,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen have scored 6 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.46,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jong KRC Genk U23 have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.59,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.21916896965164634},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4363,"created_at":"2026-10-03T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":603919,"event_date":"2026-10-11T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1825,"home_team":"Patro Eisden Maasmechelen","away_team_id":3729,"away_team":"Jong KRC Genk U23","league_id":97,"league_name":"Challenger Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":54.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5438,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791699859,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#4c2c65","away":"#0b4989"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}