{"id":603918,"league_id":97,"league":"Challenger Pro League","kickoff":1791738900,"home":"KAA Gent Reserve U23","away":"RFC Seraing","home_id":3972,"away_id":4662,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.427,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.57,1.27],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"KAA Gent Reserve U23 v RFC Seraing is one to leave alone. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection."},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"RFC Seraing have taken 0.33 points a game from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0, and 0.33 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.5684997667529499,"lambda_away":1.2675200603577204,"corner_rate":8.96,"card_rate":0.345,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.445,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":53633,"name":"Bas Evers","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.587},{"id":88810,"name":"Ali Donny Sylla","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.389},{"id":88815,"name":"Preben Blondeel","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.696},{"id":185952,"name":"Eric Junior Simporé","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.307},{"id":7806,"name":"Gilles De Meyer","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.603},{"id":64738,"name":"Oleksandr Soroka","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.682},{"id":88808,"name":"Gyano Vanderdonck","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.607},{"id":88809,"name":"Ruslan Vydysh","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.569},{"id":7770,"name":"Mohammed El Âdfaoui","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.5},{"id":88806,"name":"Abubakar Abdullahi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.687},{"id":10605,"name":"Moctar Diop","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.407},{"id":88819,"name":"Trey Kongolo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.382},{"id":88805,"name":"Daniel James Wisdom","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.319},{"id":88818,"name":"Victor Vandenbroucke","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.309},{"id":88814,"name":"Alexandre Chaidron","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.296},{"id":69114,"name":"Yassin Mohammed","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.274},{"id":33658,"name":"Jemiah Umolu","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.242},{"id":88802,"name":"Saidou Toure","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.213},{"id":88804,"name":"David Mukuna-Trouet","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.146},{"id":88807,"name":"Noah Laghmich","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.144},{"id":42208,"name":"Loris Pirotte","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.14},{"id":88811,"name":"Joachim Djamba-Shango","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.036},{"id":159930,"name":"Liam Wauters","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.014}],"confidence":0.462},"away":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":68609,"name":"Nick Gillekens","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.614},{"id":68611,"name":"Oussmane Kebe","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.599},{"id":4270,"name":"Moustapha Diop","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.643},{"id":42214,"name":"Victor Corneillie","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.631},{"id":95744,"name":"Emmanuel Tshimbalanga","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.539},{"id":68616,"name":"Fostave Mabani","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.235},{"id":151199,"name":"Wassim Bahri","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.545},{"id":68613,"name":"Matteo Scarpinati","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.331},{"id":95749,"name":"Saliou Faye","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.23},{"id":68617,"name":"Mahi Gnemagnon","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.507},{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.36},{"id":129714,"name":"Anas Namri","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.52},{"id":68610,"name":"Nabil Bouchentouf","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.465},{"id":68615,"name":"Matthieu Muland","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.409},{"id":68614,"name":"Alexandre Tunkadi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.367},{"id":68612,"name":"Reda Aamer","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.34},{"id":95751,"name":"Tom Lockman","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.333},{"id":151200,"name":"Valerio Di Crescenzo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.273},{"id":151198,"name":"Matteo Bisarre","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.268},{"id":4322,"name":"Yannis Lawson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.229},{"id":97412,"name":"Alek Bisevac","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.194},{"id":4269,"name":"Romain Jean-Baptiste","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":95740,"name":"Boris Ngoua","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.445},"unavailable":[{"id":22625,"name":"Hannes Vernemmen","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":7466,"name":"Matisse Samoise","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Anterior Cruciate Ligament"}]},"people":[{"id":53633,"name":"Bas Evers","side":"home"},{"id":88810,"name":"Ali Donny Sylla","side":"home"},{"id":88815,"name":"Preben Blondeel","side":"home"},{"id":185952,"name":"Eric Junior Simporé","side":"home"},{"id":7806,"name":"Gilles De Meyer","side":"home"},{"id":64738,"name":"Oleksandr Soroka","side":"home"},{"id":88808,"name":"Gyano Vanderdonck","side":"home"},{"id":88809,"name":"Ruslan Vydysh","side":"home"},{"id":7770,"name":"Mohammed El Âdfaoui","side":"home"},{"id":88806,"name":"Abubakar Abdullahi","side":"home"},{"id":10605,"name":"Moctar Diop","side":"home"},{"id":88819,"name":"Trey Kongolo","side":"home"},{"id":88805,"name":"Daniel James Wisdom","side":"home"},{"id":88818,"name":"Victor Vandenbroucke","side":"home"},{"id":88814,"name":"Alexandre Chaidron","side":"home"},{"id":69114,"name":"Yassin Mohammed","side":"home"},{"id":33658,"name":"Jemiah Umolu","side":"home"},{"id":88802,"name":"Saidou Toure","side":"home"},{"id":88804,"name":"David Mukuna-Trouet","side":"home"},{"id":88807,"name":"Noah Laghmich","side":"home"},{"id":42208,"name":"Loris Pirotte","side":"home"},{"id":88811,"name":"Joachim Djamba-Shango","side":"home"},{"id":159930,"name":"Liam Wauters","side":"home"},{"id":88820,"name":"Henri De Clercq","side":"home"},{"id":88821,"name":"Allan Verlinden","side":"home"},{"id":7466,"name":"Matisse Samoise","side":"home"},{"id":22625,"name":"Hannes Vernemmen","side":"home"},{"id":88817,"name":"Michiel Cauwel","side":"home"},{"id":104421,"name":"Abdul Ouedraogo","side":"home"},{"id":88816,"name":"Arthur De Kimpe","side":"home"},{"id":185951,"name":"Rayan Garcia Belkacem","side":"home"},{"id":88803,"name":"Simon Buggea","side":"home"},{"id":64108,"name":"Victor De Coninck","side":"home"},{"id":88813,"name":"Mikelis Menniks","side":"home"},{"id":68609,"name":"Nick Gillekens","side":"away"},{"id":68611,"name":"Oussmane Kebe","side":"away"},{"id":4270,"name":"Moustapha Diop","side":"away"},{"id":42214,"name":"Victor Corneillie","side":"away"},{"id":95744,"name":"Emmanuel Tshimbalanga","side":"away"},{"id":68616,"name":"Fostave Mabani","side":"away"},{"id":151199,"name":"Wassim Bahri","side":"away"},{"id":68613,"name":"Matteo Scarpinati","side":"away"},{"id":95749,"name":"Saliou Faye","side":"away"},{"id":68617,"name":"Mahi Gnemagnon","side":"away"},{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","side":"away"},{"id":129714,"name":"Anas Namri","side":"away"},{"id":68610,"name":"Nabil Bouchentouf","side":"away"},{"id":68615,"name":"Matthieu Muland","side":"away"},{"id":68614,"name":"Alexandre Tunkadi","side":"away"},{"id":68612,"name":"Reda Aamer","side":"away"},{"id":95751,"name":"Tom Lockman","side":"away"},{"id":151200,"name":"Valerio Di Crescenzo","side":"away"},{"id":151198,"name":"Matteo Bisarre","side":"away"},{"id":4322,"name":"Yannis Lawson","side":"away"},{"id":97412,"name":"Alek Bisevac","side":"away"},{"id":4269,"name":"Romain Jean-Baptiste","side":"away"},{"id":95740,"name":"Boris Ngoua","side":"away"},{"id":151203,"name":"Relja Biševac","side":"away"},{"id":151202,"name":"Emmanuel Da Costa","side":"away"},{"id":151204,"name":"Loam Gregoire","side":"away"},{"id":151205,"name":"Yanis Gregoire","side":"away"},{"id":151206,"name":"Leny Ngombo Mbamba","side":"away"},{"id":151201,"name":"Antoine Lommel","side":"away"},{"id":151197,"name":"Nils Velleuer","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":7466,"name":"Matisse Samoise","side":"home","team":"KAA Gent Reserve U23","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RM","status":"out","reason":"Anterior Cruciate Ligament","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":2,"starts":1,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":7,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Club NXT U23","kickoff":1789754400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.045,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":22625,"name":"Hannes Vernemmen","side":"home","team":"KAA Gent Reserve U23","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":88809,"name":"Ruslan Vydysh","side":"home","team":"KAA Gent Reserve U23","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":4,"starts":4,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":7,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt","kickoff":1787940000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.244,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":10605,"name":"Moctar Diop","side":"home","team":"KAA Gent Reserve U23","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":5,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":7,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt","kickoff":1787940000,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.098,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","side":"away","team":"RFC Seraing","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":2,"starts":2,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt","kickoff":1789221600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.067,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":68617,"name":"Mahi Gnemagnon","side":"away","team":"RFC Seraing","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":5,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.012,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":3972,"away":4662},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":2},"below":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":4},"below":null}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":3138,"name":"Thomas Matton","vs":null},"away":{"id":2717,"name":"Arnaud Mercier","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":40668,"name":"Abdelsamad Hachem","goals":6,"rank":1},{"id":42107,"name":"Arnold Vula","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":67294,"name":"Maxime Bastian","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":42173,"name":"Milan Robberechts","goals":4,"rank":4},{"id":110275,"name":"Myung-jun Kim","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":77524,"name":"Jakke Van Britsom","goals":3,"rank":6},{"id":74017,"name":"Javan Ngoyi","goals":3,"rank":7},{"id":42197,"name":"Kays Ruiz-Atil","goals":3,"rank":8},{"id":212310,"name":"Pape Aliya N'dao","goals":3,"rank":9},{"id":42203,"name":"Simon Paulet","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":7849,"name":"Alexandre Stanic","goals":2,"rank":11},{"id":15185,"name":"Amine Messoussa","goals":2,"rank":12},{"id":42105,"name":"Anas Haj Mohamed","goals":2,"rank":13},{"id":90204,"name":"Ba-Muaka Simakala","goals":2,"rank":14},{"id":8904,"name":"Bo De Kerf","goals":2,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 7","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":3972,"position":11,"played":5,"points":5,"goal_diff":-3,"team_name":"KAA Gent Reserve U23","won":1,"drawn":2,"lost":2,"goals_for":6,"goals_against":9,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":4662,"position":14,"played":6,"points":2,"goal_diff":-6,"team_name":"RFC Seraing","won":0,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":6,"goals_against":12,"group":null},"size":15},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":1,"goals_against":1.67,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWDLD","venue_ppg":0.5},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.33,"record":"0-2-4","goals_for":1,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"winless 6","sequence":"LLDLLD","venue_ppg":0.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"KAA Gent Reserve U23 are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.167,"combined_importance":0.045,"players":[{"player":"Matisse Samoise","role":"DEF","reason":"Anterior Cruciate Ligament","goal_share":0.167,"importance":0.045,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Hannes Vernemmen","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Seraing report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.445,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.555,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":21,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":5,"games_left":21,"gap_to_leader":13,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":7},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":2,"games_left":21,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":10},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Thomas Matton is 6 games into the job at KAA Gent Reserve U23, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Thomas Matton","matches_in_charge":6,"tenure_days":73,"ppm":0.83,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":3,"after_ppm":0.83,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Arnaud Mercier is 15 games into the job at RFC Seraing, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Arnaud Mercier","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":280,"ppm":0.6,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.2,"after_ppm":0.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"KAA Gent Reserve U23 have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"RFC Seraing have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 3.9428808049921678 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.098,"defence":-0.023,"effective_matches":3.9,"shrunk":0.67},"away":{"attack":-0.116,"defence":-0.007,"effective_matches":4.7,"shrunk":0.63},"sample":3.9428808049921678,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; RFC Seraing work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":7,"possession":48.6,"shots":9.4,"xg_per_shot":0.098,"corners":2.2,"corners_per_shot":0.234,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":42.4,"shots":10.5,"xg_per_shot":0.108,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.408,"finishing_vs_xg":0.03},"possession_gap":6.2},"strength":0.247,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"KAA Gent Reserve U23 are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.08,"matches":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RFC Seraing are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.03,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.21916896965164634},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4364,"created_at":"2026-10-03T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":603918,"event_date":"2026-10-11T17:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":3972,"home_team":"KAA Gent Reserve U23","away_team_id":4662,"away_team":"RFC Seraing","league_id":97,"league_name":"Challenger Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":37.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3751,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791699809,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c4b90","away":"#ed2028"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}