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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.145833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.147,"defence":-0.069,"effective_matches":7.3,"shrunk":0.52},"away":{"attack":-0.052,"defence":-0.047,"effective_matches":7.3,"shrunk":0.52}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.6,"shots":13.4,"xg_per_shot":0.088,"corners":4.5,"corners_per_shot":0.332,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.1},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.2,"shots":11.9,"xg_per_shot":0.107,"corners":4,"corners_per_shot":0.336,"finishing_vs_xg":0.47},"possession_gap":-0.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Grazer AK 1902 are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.1,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"TSV Hartberg have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.47,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"14 yellow cards in this referee's last 3 games, where 11 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 3 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":3,"yellows_per_match":4.67,"reds_per_match":0.333,"league_yellows_per_match":3.51,"league_reds_per_match":0.2,"yellow_ratio":1.33,"red_ratio":1.67,"sample":3,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3.4,"temperature_c":9,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.33413668151353093},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6248,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":603803,"event_date":"2026-10-30T18:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1409,"home_team":"Grazer AK 1902","away_team_id":1406,"away_team":"TSV Hartberg","league_id":96,"league_name":"Austrian Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":48.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4811,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793366893,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ce1417","away":"#108ac4"},"venue":{"name":"Merkur Arena","city":"Graz","capacity":16764},"pulled":[],"published":[]}