{"id":603063,"league_id":95,"league":"Campeonato de Portugal","kickoff":1791727200,"home":"CD Fátima","away":"Gd Nazarenos","home_id":3241,"away_id":8312,"venue_id":null,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"unavailable","confidence":0.131,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.87,0.92],"read":null,"pass":"No call on CD Fátima against Gd Nazarenos. No bookmaker is pricing it yet.","flags":[{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"Gd Nazarenos have taken 0.00 points a game from their last 6 (0W 0D 6L), scoring 0.2 and conceding 2.3, and 0.00 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.874873128002873,"lambda_away":0.9176887258866013,"corner_rate":8.03,"card_rate":0.263,"lineups":{"status":"unavailable","confidence":null,"home":null,"away":null,"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":113033,"name":"Rodrigo Conceição","side":"home"},{"id":112097,"name":"Diogo Conçeição","side":"home"}],"players":[],"extras":{"teams":{"home":3241,"away":8312},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":2},"below":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":4},"below":null}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":null,"away":{"id":3580,"name":"Walter Estrela","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[],"round_label":"Group C · Matchday 5","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":0,"home_wins":0,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":null,"away_goals":null,"avg_total_goals":null,"home_win_rate":null,"away_win_rate":null,"recent_matches":[]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":3241,"position":9,"played":4,"points":4,"goal_diff":1,"team_name":"CD Fátima","won":1,"drawn":1,"lost":2,"goals_for":6,"goals_against":5,"group":"Group C"},"away":{"team_id":8312,"position":14,"played":4,"points":0,"goal_diff":-9,"team_name":"Gd Nazarenos","won":0,"drawn":0,"lost":4,"goals_for":1,"goals_against":10,"group":"Group C"},"size":56},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.67,"record":"3-1-2","goals_for":2.17,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"DWWLLW","venue_ppg":2.25},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0,"record":"0-0-6","goals_for":0.17,"goals_against":2.33,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"lost 6","sequence":"LLLLLL","venue_ppg":0}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Fátima report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gd Nazarenos report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No lineup published yet. Rotation risk is unresolved and every price here is provisional until the eleven is named.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"unavailable"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No manager record for CD Fátima, so regime state cannot be read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Walter Estrela is 3 games into the job at Gd Nazarenos. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Walter Estrela","matches_in_charge":3,"tenure_days":43,"ppm":0,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0,"after_ppm":0,"delta":null}},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Fátima come in on 21 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":21,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":21},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"Gd Nazarenos have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 3.0878424584514645 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.044,"defence":0.009,"effective_matches":3.1,"shrunk":0.72},"away":{"attack":-0.22,"defence":-0.241,"effective_matches":3.1,"shrunk":0.72},"sample":3.0878424584514645,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":8,"possession":49,"shots":null,"xg_per_shot":null,"corners":2.8,"corners_per_shot":null,"finishing_vs_xg":null},"away":{"matches":6,"possession":45,"shots":null,"xg_per_shot":null,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":null,"finishing_vs_xg":null},"possession_gap":4},"strength":0.16,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for CD Fátima's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":8},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for Gd Nazarenos's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.22058804971999443},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: no-prices","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4717,"created_at":"2026-10-05T02:15:28Z","event":{"id":603063,"event_date":"2026-10-11T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":3241,"home_team":"CD Fátima","away_team_id":8312,"away_team":"Gd Nazarenos","league_id":95,"league_name":"Campeonato de Portugal"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":81.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.812,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791601386,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#8a364b","away":"#383847"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}