{"id":602695,"league_id":94,"league":"2. Bundesliga","kickoff":1792773000,"home":"Darmstadt 98","away":"FC St. Pauli","home_id":1295,"away_id":91,"venue_id":760,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.53,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.34,1.4],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"No call on Darmstadt 98 against FC St. Pauli. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[],"lambda_home":1.3448188002494297,"lambda_away":1.3952470346581376,"corner_rate":11.99,"card_rate":0.252,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.723,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":27246,"name":"Marcel Schuhen","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.817},{"id":9556,"name":"Raoul Petretta","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.668},{"id":16697,"name":"Patric Pfeiffer","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.805},{"id":27242,"name":"Aleksandar Vukotić","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.645},{"id":41399,"name":"Christopher Lannert","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.636},{"id":27238,"name":"Kai Klefisch","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.756},{"id":27234,"name":"Hiroki Akiyama","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.479},{"id":14186,"name":"Noah Weißhaupt","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.716},{"id":5290,"name":"Lance Duijvestijn","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.619},{"id":27233,"name":"Marco Richter","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.334},{"id":3107,"name":"Milan Smit","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.722},{"id":45090,"name":"Lee Ho-jae","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.523},{"id":5666,"name":"Nicolas Verkooijen","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.437},{"id":4908,"name":"Yannik Lührs","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.424},{"id":1593,"name":"William Mikelbrencis","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.336},{"id":26291,"name":"Florian Kleinhansl","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.335},{"id":27252,"name":"Ibrahim El Kadiri","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.267},{"id":27231,"name":"Yosuke Furukawa","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.26},{"id":63090,"name":"Manolo Merx","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.222},{"id":61930,"name":"Lars Kehl","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.219},{"id":27229,"name":"Fynn Lakenmacher","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.215},{"id":27247,"name":"Alexander Brunst","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":7868,"name":"Grayson Dettoni","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025}],"confidence":0.723},"away":{"formation":"3-4-1-2","players":[{"id":2491,"name":"Ben Voll","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.795},{"id":2488,"name":"Louis Oppie","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.793},{"id":13640,"name":"David Nemeth","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.81},{"id":2479,"name":"Eric Smith","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.653},{"id":2477,"name":"Arkadiusz Pyrka","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.799},{"id":2490,"name":"Connor Metcalfe","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.513},{"id":3761,"name":"Mathias Rasmussen","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.793},{"id":2482,"name":"Joel Chima Fujita","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.67},{"id":2481,"name":"Lars Ritzka","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.52},{"id":8985,"name":"Taichi Hara","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.487},{"id":4907,"name":"Scott Banks","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.21},{"id":8541,"name":"Tomoya Ando","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.522},{"id":29559,"name":"Branimir Hrgota","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.463},{"id":2489,"name":"Abdoulie Ceesay","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.448},{"id":2495,"name":"Martijn Kaars","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.41},{"id":8547,"name":"Youssoupha Niang","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.404},{"id":2494,"name":"Ricky-Jade Jones","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.27},{"id":2492,"name":"Adam Dźwigała","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.258},{"id":4381,"name":"Erik Ahlstrand","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.223},{"id":26242,"name":"Rony Jansson","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.184},{"id":65819,"name":"Samuel Klein","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.179},{"id":5745,"name":"Dimitar Mitov","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":65818,"name":"Haron Sabah","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.786},"unavailable":[{"id":41658,"name":"Carlo Sickinger","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Calf Injury"},{"id":27240,"name":"Fabian Nürnberger","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Unknown"},{"id":27235,"name":"Luca Marseiler","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":41356,"name":"Marcus Mathisen","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":27246,"name":"Marcel Schuhen","side":"home"},{"id":9556,"name":"Raoul Petretta","side":"home"},{"id":16697,"name":"Patric Pfeiffer","side":"home"},{"id":27242,"name":"Aleksandar Vukotić","side":"home"},{"id":41399,"name":"Christopher Lannert","side":"home"},{"id":27238,"name":"Kai Klefisch","side":"home"},{"id":27234,"name":"Hiroki Akiyama","side":"home"},{"id":14186,"name":"Noah Weißhaupt","side":"home"},{"id":5290,"name":"Lance Duijvestijn","side":"home"},{"id":27233,"name":"Marco Richter","side":"home"},{"id":3107,"name":"Milan Smit","side":"home"},{"id":45090,"name":"Lee Ho-jae","side":"home"},{"id":5666,"name":"Nicolas Verkooijen","side":"home"},{"id":4908,"name":"Yannik Lührs","side":"home"},{"id":1593,"name":"William Mikelbrencis","side":"home"},{"id":26291,"name":"Florian Kleinhansl","side":"home"},{"id":27252,"name":"Ibrahim El Kadiri","side":"home"},{"id":27231,"name":"Yosuke Furukawa","side":"home"},{"id":63090,"name":"Manolo Merx","side":"home"},{"id":61930,"name":"Lars Kehl","side":"home"},{"id":27229,"name":"Fynn Lakenmacher","side":"home"},{"id":27247,"name":"Alexander Brunst","side":"home"},{"id":7868,"name":"Grayson Dettoni","side":"home"},{"id":34752,"name":"Meldin Drešković","side":"home"},{"id":27240,"name":"Fabian Nürnberger","side":"home"},{"id":27245,"name":"Max Pfister","side":"home"},{"id":27248,"name":"Benedikt Börner","side":"home"},{"id":27249,"name":"Steve Kroll","side":"home"},{"id":27235,"name":"Luca Marseiler","side":"home"},{"id":27236,"name":"Merveille Papela","side":"home"},{"id":41658,"name":"Carlo Sickinger","side":"home"},{"id":27237,"name":"Matthias Bader","side":"home"},{"id":68652,"name":"Tom Steineck","side":"home"},{"id":63092,"name":"Milian Herbst","side":"home"},{"id":2491,"name":"Ben Voll","side":"away"},{"id":2488,"name":"Louis Oppie","side":"away"},{"id":13640,"name":"David Nemeth","side":"away"},{"id":2479,"name":"Eric Smith","side":"away"},{"id":2477,"name":"Arkadiusz Pyrka","side":"away"},{"id":2490,"name":"Connor Metcalfe","side":"away"},{"id":3761,"name":"Mathias Rasmussen","side":"away"},{"id":2482,"name":"Joel Chima Fujita","side":"away"},{"id":2481,"name":"Lars Ritzka","side":"away"},{"id":8985,"name":"Taichi Hara","side":"away"},{"id":4907,"name":"Scott Banks","side":"away"},{"id":8541,"name":"Tomoya Ando","side":"away"},{"id":29559,"name":"Branimir Hrgota","side":"away"},{"id":2489,"name":"Abdoulie Ceesay","side":"away"},{"id":2495,"name":"Martijn Kaars","side":"away"},{"id":8547,"name":"Youssoupha Niang","side":"away"},{"id":2494,"name":"Ricky-Jade Jones","side":"away"},{"id":2492,"name":"Adam Dźwigała","side":"away"},{"id":4381,"name":"Erik Ahlstrand","side":"away"},{"id":26242,"name":"Rony Jansson","side":"away"},{"id":65819,"name":"Samuel Klein","side":"away"},{"id":5745,"name":"Dimitar Mitov","side":"away"},{"id":65818,"name":"Haron Sabah","side":"away"},{"id":41356,"name":"Marcus Mathisen","side":"away"},{"id":65821,"name":"Jannik Westphal","side":"away"},{"id":2485,"name":"Mathias Pereira Lage","side":"away"},{"id":220879,"name":"Evans Quasi","side":"away"},{"id":24008,"name":"Simon Emil Spari","side":"away"},{"id":12448,"name":"Gisli Thordarson","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":41658,"name":"Carlo Sickinger","side":"home","team":"Darmstadt 98","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Calf Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":5,"starts":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.016,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":27240,"name":"Fabian Nürnberger","side":"home","team":"Darmstadt 98","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Unknown","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":27235,"name":"Luca Marseiler","side":"home","team":"Darmstadt 98","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":"2026-12-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":27242,"name":"Aleksandar Vukotić","side":"home","team":"Darmstadt 98","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":6,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Energie Cottbus","kickoff":1791630000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.055,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":3107,"name":"Milan Smit","side":"home","team":"Darmstadt 98","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":8,"goals":3,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"FC Carl Zeiss Jena","kickoff":1787491800,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.071,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":41356,"name":"Marcus Mathisen","side":"away","team":"FC St. Pauli","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":5,"starts":4,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"SpVgg Greuther Fürth","kickoff":1786275000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.065,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2489,"name":"Abdoulie Ceesay","side":"away","team":"FC St. Pauli","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":6,"starts":3,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Karlsruher SC","kickoff":1791718200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.128,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":158,"country":0}},{"id":8985,"name":"Taichi Hara","side":"away","team":"FC St. Pauli","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Holstein Kiel","kickoff":1786725000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.133,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":1,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":1295,"away":91},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":2,"d":0,"l":5},"below":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":1},"below":{"w":1,"d":5,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":1200,"name":"Florian Kohfeldt","vs":null},"away":{"id":2036,"name":"Marcel Rapp","vs":null}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"2489":{"caps":6,"goals":0,"country":"Gambia","signed":null},"27240":{"caps":11,"goals":0,"country":"Bulgaria","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":29564,"name":"Felix Klaus","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":26306,"name":"Mohamed Ali Zoma","goals":7,"rank":2},{"id":27757,"name":"Emmanuel Iyoha","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":41391,"name":"Joel Grodowski","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":41439,"name":"Justin Butler","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":26311,"name":"Piet Scobel","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":1598,"name":"Robert Glatzel","goals":5,"rank":7},{"id":2489,"name":"Abdoulie Ceesay","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":28070,"name":"Alexander Bernhardsson","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":4076,"name":"Jan Urbich","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":1986,"name":"Josip Brekalo","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":28071,"name":"Phil Harres","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":41438,"name":"Tolcay Ciğerci","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":26313,"name":"Adam Markhiev","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":41358,"name":"Alexander Nollenberger","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 9","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":14,"home_wins":9,"draws":2,"away_wins":3,"home_goals":24,"away_goals":13,"avg_total_goals":2.642857142857143,"home_win_rate":0.6428571428571429,"away_win_rate":0.21428571428571427,"recent_matches":[{"away":"FC St. Pauli","date":"2023-05-06T18:30:00+00:00","home":"Darmstadt 98","score":"0-3","event_id":630286,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":91,"home_team_id":1295},{"away":"Darmstadt 98","date":"2022-10-29T18:30:00+00:00","home":"FC St. Pauli","score":"1-1","event_id":630133,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1295,"home_team_id":91},{"away":"Darmstadt 98","date":"2022-04-23T18:30:00+00:00","home":"FC St. Pauli","score":"1-2","event_id":630597,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1295,"home_team_id":91},{"away":"FC St. Pauli","date":"2021-11-20T12:30:00+00:00","home":"Darmstadt 98","score":"4-0","event_id":630439,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":91,"home_team_id":1295},{"away":"Darmstadt 98","date":"2021-02-20T12:00:00+00:00","home":"FC St. Pauli","score":"3-2","event_id":630825,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":1295,"home_team_id":91},{"away":"FC St. Pauli","date":"2020-10-24T11:00:00+00:00","home":"Darmstadt 98","score":"2-2","event_id":630670,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":91,"home_team_id":1295},{"away":"FC St. Pauli","date":"2020-05-23T11:00:00+00:00","home":"Darmstadt 98","score":"4-0","event_id":631193,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":91,"home_team_id":1295},{"away":"Darmstadt 98","date":"2019-10-19T11:00:00+00:00","home":"FC St. Pauli","score":"0-1","event_id":631039,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1295,"home_team_id":91},{"away":"FC St. Pauli","date":"2019-01-29T19:30:00+00:00","home":"Darmstadt 98","score":"2-1","event_id":631432,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":91,"home_team_id":1295},{"away":"Darmstadt 98","date":"2018-08-10T18:30:00+00:00","home":"FC St. Pauli","score":"2-0","event_id":631278,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1295,"home_team_id":91}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":1295,"position":17,"played":8,"points":7,"goal_diff":-10,"team_name":"Darmstadt 98","won":2,"drawn":1,"lost":5,"goals_for":8,"goals_against":18,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":91,"position":7,"played":8,"points":11,"goal_diff":2,"team_name":"FC St. Pauli","won":2,"drawn":5,"lost":1,"goals_for":11,"goals_against":9,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"3-0-3","goals_for":2.17,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"LLWLWW","venue_ppg":2},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"2-3-1","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"unbeaten 5","sequence":"LDWDDW","venue_ppg":1}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Darmstadt 98 are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.016,"players":[{"player":"Carlo Sickinger","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.016,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14},{"player":"Fabian Nürnberger","role":"DEF","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Luca Marseiler","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC St. Pauli are without 1 player, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":1,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.091,"combined_importance":0.065,"players":[{"player":"Marcus Mathisen","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0.091,"importance":0.065,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7,"tags":["best_performer"]}]},"strength":0.163,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.723,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.277,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":17,"points":7,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":11,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Florian Kohfeldt has 45 matches in charge at Darmstadt 98, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Florian Kohfeldt","matches_in_charge":45,"tenure_days":360,"ppm":1.6,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Marcel Rapp is 8 games into the job at FC St. Pauli, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Marcel Rapp","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":64,"ppm":1.25,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.25,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Darmstadt 98 come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.208333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC St. Pauli come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.916666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.465877011486489 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.123,"defence":-0.056,"effective_matches":5.5,"shrunk":0.59},"away":{"attack":-0.066,"defence":0.115,"effective_matches":5.5,"shrunk":0.59},"sample":5.465877011486489,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":42.6,"shots":11.9,"xg_per_shot":0.092,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.384,"finishing_vs_xg":1.24},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.7,"shots":13,"xg_per_shot":0.104,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.441,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.02},"possession_gap":-5.2},"strength":0.207,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Darmstadt 98 have scored 15 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":1.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC St. Pauli are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.02,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 422 km for FC St. Pauli.","evidence":{"travel_km":422},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.1,"temperature_c":14,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19454846501105857},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5590,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":602695,"event_date":"2026-10-23T16:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1295,"home_team":"Darmstadt 98","away_team_id":91,"away_team":"FC St. Pauli","league_id":94,"league_name":"2. Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":43,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4297,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792658221,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c4d98","away":"#ed2831"},"venue":{"name":"Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor","city":"Darmstadt","capacity":16500},"pulled":[],"published":[]}