{"id":602690,"league_id":94,"league":"2. Bundesliga","kickoff":1792234800,"home":"VfL Wolfsburg","away":"1. FC Heidenheim","home_id":82,"away_id":81,"venue_id":80,"rank":6,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.566,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[2.08,1.64],"read":{"text":"VfL Wolfsburg to edge it, with goals","side":"home"},"pass":"VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim is one to leave alone. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[],"lambda_home":2.084224657323586,"lambda_away":1.6394895664764533,"corner_rate":12.53,"card_rate":0.214,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.632,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":37546,"name":"Jakub Zieliński","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.757},{"id":4380,"name":"Joakim Mæhle","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.655},{"id":2478,"name":"Hauke Wahl","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.795},{"id":4920,"name":"Mathys Angely","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.493},{"id":4466,"name":"Kilian Fischer","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.596},{"id":1380,"name":"Vinícius Souza","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.694},{"id":2408,"name":"Elvis Rexhbeçaj","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.541},{"id":41316,"name":"Fabian Reese","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.772},{"id":2391,"name":"Muhammed Damar","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.678},{"id":28070,"name":"Alexander Bernhardsson","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.655},{"id":1598,"name":"Robert Glatzel","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.448},{"id":1367,"name":"Saël Kumbedi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.482},{"id":1371,"name":"Yannick Gerhardt","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.416},{"id":5459,"name":"Kento Shiogai","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.401},{"id":3868,"name":"Cleiton","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.364},{"id":1377,"name":"Mattias Svanberg","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.355},{"id":1372,"name":"Maximilian Arnold","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.311},{"id":61684,"name":"Alessio Besio","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.307},{"id":3146,"name":"Jonas Adjei Adjetey","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.265},{"id":27230,"name":"Fraser Hornby","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.259},{"id":1381,"name":"Pharell Hensel","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.19},{"id":4268,"name":"Bence Dárdai","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.176},{"id":4137,"name":"Pavao Pervan","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05}],"confidence":0.736},"away":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":61851,"name":"Thomas Dähne","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.601},{"id":2443,"name":"Jonas Föhrenbach","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.625},{"id":2438,"name":"Patrick Mainka","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.688},{"id":2454,"name":"Tim Siersleben","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.223},{"id":2440,"name":"Marnon Busch","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.6},{"id":7399,"name":"Michael Heule","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.56},{"id":2447,"name":"Jan Schöppner","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.681},{"id":2441,"name":"Julian Niehues","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.568},{"id":27494,"name":"Marcel Costly","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.572},{"id":3907,"name":"Budu Zivzivadze","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.481},{"id":7229,"name":"Alessandro Vogt","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.363},{"id":61698,"name":"Oualid Mhamdi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.438},{"id":63519,"name":"Paul Hennrich","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.433},{"id":2444,"name":"Mathias Honsak","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.382},{"id":12052,"name":"Christian Conteh","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.344},{"id":4467,"name":"Mikkel Kaufmann","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.343},{"id":8514,"name":"Frank Feller","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.279},{"id":2451,"name":"Yannik Wagner","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.277},{"id":41367,"name":"Maximilian Breunig","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.26},{"id":63520,"name":"Marko Zrilic","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.241},{"id":2455,"name":"Luca Kerber","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.185},{"id":2453,"name":"Adam Kölle","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.179},{"id":4746,"name":"Leart Paqarada","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.168}],"confidence":0.632},"unavailable":[{"id":4641,"name":"Sirlord Conteh","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Unknown"}]},"people":[{"id":37546,"name":"Jakub Zieliński","side":"home"},{"id":4380,"name":"Joakim Mæhle","side":"home"},{"id":2478,"name":"Hauke Wahl","side":"home"},{"id":4920,"name":"Mathys Angely","side":"home"},{"id":4466,"name":"Kilian Fischer","side":"home"},{"id":1380,"name":"Vinícius Souza","side":"home"},{"id":2408,"name":"Elvis Rexhbeçaj","side":"home"},{"id":41316,"name":"Fabian Reese","side":"home"},{"id":2391,"name":"Muhammed Damar","side":"home"},{"id":28070,"name":"Alexander Bernhardsson","side":"home"},{"id":1598,"name":"Robert Glatzel","side":"home"},{"id":1367,"name":"Saël Kumbedi","side":"home"},{"id":1371,"name":"Yannick Gerhardt","side":"home"},{"id":5459,"name":"Kento Shiogai","side":"home"},{"id":3868,"name":"Cleiton","side":"home"},{"id":1377,"name":"Mattias Svanberg","side":"home"},{"id":1372,"name":"Maximilian Arnold","side":"home"},{"id":61684,"name":"Alessio Besio","side":"home"},{"id":3146,"name":"Jonas Adjei Adjetey","side":"home"},{"id":27230,"name":"Fraser Hornby","side":"home"},{"id":1381,"name":"Pharell Hensel","side":"home"},{"id":4268,"name":"Bence Dárdai","side":"home"},{"id":4137,"name":"Pavao Pervan","side":"home"},{"id":24012,"name":"Rogério","side":"home"},{"id":1370,"name":"Aaron Zehnter","side":"home"},{"id":1385,"name":"Bruno Katz","side":"home"},{"id":5215,"name":"Trevor Benedict","side":"home"},{"id":78056,"name":"Carl-Anton Sticherling","side":"home"},{"id":3360,"name":"Timon Wellenreuther","side":"home"},{"id":7824,"name":"Henrik Fehr","side":"home"},{"id":215869,"name":"Dusan Pernis","side":"home"},{"id":4040,"name":"Aster Vranckx","side":"home"},{"id":61851,"name":"Thomas Dähne","side":"away"},{"id":2443,"name":"Jonas Föhrenbach","side":"away"},{"id":2438,"name":"Patrick Mainka","side":"away"},{"id":2454,"name":"Tim Siersleben","side":"away"},{"id":2440,"name":"Marnon Busch","side":"away"},{"id":7399,"name":"Michael Heule","side":"away"},{"id":2447,"name":"Jan Schöppner","side":"away"},{"id":2441,"name":"Julian Niehues","side":"away"},{"id":27494,"name":"Marcel Costly","side":"away"},{"id":3907,"name":"Budu Zivzivadze","side":"away"},{"id":7229,"name":"Alessandro Vogt","side":"away"},{"id":61698,"name":"Oualid Mhamdi","side":"away"},{"id":63519,"name":"Paul Hennrich","side":"away"},{"id":2444,"name":"Mathias Honsak","side":"away"},{"id":12052,"name":"Christian Conteh","side":"away"},{"id":4467,"name":"Mikkel Kaufmann","side":"away"},{"id":8514,"name":"Frank Feller","side":"away"},{"id":2451,"name":"Yannik Wagner","side":"away"},{"id":41367,"name":"Maximilian Breunig","side":"away"},{"id":63520,"name":"Marko Zrilic","side":"away"},{"id":2455,"name":"Luca Kerber","side":"away"},{"id":2453,"name":"Adam Kölle","side":"away"},{"id":4746,"name":"Leart Paqarada","side":"away"},{"id":4641,"name":"Sirlord Conteh","side":"away"},{"id":214434,"name":"Jarne Lang","side":"away"},{"id":214438,"name":"Maximilian Kos","side":"away"},{"id":13527,"name":"Paul Tschernuth","side":"away"},{"id":63521,"name":"Felix Mark","side":"away"},{"id":2446,"name":"Marvin Pieringer","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":1598,"name":"Robert Glatzel","side":"home","team":"VfL Wolfsburg","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":6,"starts":3,"goals":4,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":4,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Darmstadt 98","kickoff":1789749000,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.138,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}},{"id":4641,"name":"Sirlord Conteh","side":"away","team":"1. FC Heidenheim","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Unknown","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":3907,"name":"Budu Zivzivadze","side":"away","team":"1. FC Heidenheim","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Arminia Bielefeld","kickoff":1789903800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.063,"country":{"team":"Georgia","apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":131,"country":1}},{"id":7229,"name":"Alessandro Vogt","side":"away","team":"1. FC Heidenheim","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":4,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.004,"country":{"team":null,"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":26,"country":0}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":26306,"name":"Mohamed Ali Zoma","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":27757,"name":"Emmanuel Iyoha","goals":5,"rank":2},{"id":29564,"name":"Felix Klaus","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":41391,"name":"Joel Grodowski","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":26311,"name":"Piet Scobel","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":4076,"name":"Jan Urbich","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":1986,"name":"Josip Brekalo","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":41439,"name":"Justin Butler","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":28071,"name":"Phil Harres","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":1598,"name":"Robert Glatzel","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":41438,"name":"Tolcay Ciğerci","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":2489,"name":"Abdoulie Ceesay","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":26313,"name":"Adam Markhiev","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":28070,"name":"Alexander Bernhardsson","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":41358,"name":"Alexander Nollenberger","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 8","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":9,"home_wins":6,"draws":2,"away_wins":1,"home_goals":18,"away_goals":6,"avg_total_goals":2.6666666666666665,"home_win_rate":0.6666666666666666,"away_win_rate":0.1111111111111111,"recent_matches":[{"away":"1. FC Heidenheim","date":"2026-01-17T14:30:00+00:00","home":"VfL Wolfsburg","score":"1-1","event_id":1615,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":81,"home_team_id":82},{"away":"VfL Wolfsburg","date":"2025-08-23T13:30:00+00:00","home":"1. FC Heidenheim","score":"1-3","event_id":1458,"away_score":3,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":82,"home_team_id":81},{"away":"1. FC Heidenheim","date":"2025-03-29T14:30:00+00:00","home":"VfL Wolfsburg","score":"0-1","event_id":303806,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":81,"home_team_id":82},{"away":"VfL Wolfsburg","date":"2024-11-10T18:30:00+00:00","home":"1. FC Heidenheim","score":"1-3","event_id":303656,"away_score":3,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":82,"home_team_id":81},{"away":"VfL Wolfsburg","date":"2024-01-20T14:30:00+00:00","home":"1. FC Heidenheim","score":"1-1","event_id":309241,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":82,"home_team_id":81},{"away":"1. FC Heidenheim","date":"2023-08-19T13:30:00+00:00","home":"VfL Wolfsburg","score":"2-0","event_id":309093,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":81,"home_team_id":82},{"away":"VfL Wolfsburg","date":"2016-10-26T16:30:00+00:00","home":"1. FC Heidenheim","score":"0-1","event_id":359441,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":82,"home_team_id":81},{"away":"1. FC Heidenheim","date":"2014-10-29T19:30:00+00:00","home":"VfL Wolfsburg","score":"4-1","event_id":393596,"away_score":1,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":81,"home_team_id":82},{"away":"VfL Wolfsburg","date":"2008-08-10T12:30:00+00:00","home":"1. FC Heidenheim","score":"0-3","event_id":475828,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":82,"home_team_id":81}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":82,"position":5,"played":7,"points":12,"goal_diff":7,"team_name":"VfL Wolfsburg","won":3,"drawn":3,"lost":1,"goals_for":19,"goals_against":12,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":81,"position":3,"played":7,"points":14,"goal_diff":2,"team_name":"1. FC Heidenheim","won":4,"drawn":2,"lost":1,"goals_for":14,"goals_against":12,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":3.67,"goals_against":2.17,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"WDLWWD","venue_ppg":2.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":1.17,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"WWDLWD","venue_ppg":1.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"VfL Wolfsburg report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Heidenheim are without 1 player, none of whom register in the scoring records.","evidence":{"count":1,"measured":0,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0,"players":[{"player":"Sirlord Conteh","role":"ATT","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.632,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.368,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":26,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":12,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":0},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":14,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":8,"gap_to_europe":-2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-3, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tobias Strobl is 7 games into the job at VfL Wolfsburg, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Tobias Strobl","matches_in_charge":7,"tenure_days":54,"ppm":1.71,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.71,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Frank Schmidt has 25 matches in charge at 1. FC Heidenheim, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Frank Schmidt","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":196,"ppm":1.64,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.3,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"VfL Wolfsburg come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.6875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Heidenheim come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.770833333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.469937453466004 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.239,"defence":-0.046,"effective_matches":5.5,"shrunk":0.59},"away":{"attack":0.114,"defence":0.039,"effective_matches":5.5,"shrunk":0.59},"sample":5.469937453466004,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":56.2,"shots":21,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":6.3,"corners_per_shot":0.299,"finishing_vs_xg":0.32},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.8,"shots":16.3,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.337,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"possession_gap":7.4},"strength":0.297,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"VfL Wolfsburg have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.32,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. FC Heidenheim are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":15.5,"temperature_c":18,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19454846501105857},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5158,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:32Z","event":{"id":602690,"event_date":"2026-10-17T11:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":82,"home_team":"VfL Wolfsburg","away_team_id":81,"away_team":"1. FC Heidenheim","league_id":94,"league_name":"2. Bundesliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":54.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5469,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037768,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#539b0d","away":"#d21127"},"venue":{"name":"Volkswagen Arena","city":"Wolfsburg","capacity":30000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}