{"id":602477,"league_id":92,"league":"Taça de Portugal","kickoff":1789837200,"home":"O Elvas CAD","away":"União de Leiria","home_id":8319,"away_id":3516,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[0,2],"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#ce1115"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.84,"narrative":"Double chance X2 at 1.13. União de Leiria are not favoured here — 1.37 to 1.99 on expected goals — so what makes this a call is the draw counting, not a win being likely. Take the lot together and União de Leiria avoiding defeat is the read. We make it 84% at 1.13. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.3,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.837,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Expected goals total 3.40 against a line of 1.5: above it, which is the call. Which is why we land on more than 1.5 goals in it. That puts it at 84%, priced 1.30 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}}]}