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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Julio Méndez","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":28,"ppm":1.2,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jaguares de Córdoba come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.9166666666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.235,"defence":-0.142,"effective_matches":16.4,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":-0.088,"defence":-0.259,"effective_matches":15.5,"shrunk":0.34}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.1,"shots":8.2,"xg_per_shot":0.081,"corners":2.8,"corners_per_shot":0.337,"finishing_vs_xg":0.17},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.7,"shots":10.3,"xg_per_shot":0.077,"corners":3.5,"corners_per_shot":0.341,"finishing_vs_xg":0.62},"possession_gap":1.4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Pereira are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jaguares de Córdoba have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.62,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 441 km for Jaguares de Córdoba.","evidence":{"travel_km":441},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.7,"temperature_c":18,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.33138057199641646},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results, and Jaguares de Córdoba are in the worse of it. Deportivo Pereira have been out-created in six of their last ten games. As for the other side, Jaguares de Córdoba have been out-created in six of their last ten games. And they have scored 15 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 8. That finishing is running hot. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6223,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":602471,"event_date":"2026-10-30T21:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4780,"home_team":"Deportivo Pereira","away_team_id":4785,"away_team":"Jaguares de Córdoba","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":43.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.437,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793356194,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed1c21","away":"#197a0a"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Hernan Ramírez Villegas","city":"Pereira","capacity":35342},"pulled":[],"published":[]}