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plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.148,"combined_importance":0.087,"players":[{"player":"Richardson Rivas","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0.148,"importance":0.086,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14},{"player":"Brandon Mejía","role":"MID","reason":"red_card_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.001,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14}]},"strength":0.217,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.682,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.318,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":33,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":2,"points":64,"games_left":33,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":30,"gap_to_europe":-12},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":17,"points":34,"games_left":33,"gap_to_leader":38,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":18},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"David González has 28 matches in charge at América de Cali, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"David González","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":203,"ppm":2,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Diego Arias has 34 matches in charge at Fortaleza FC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Diego Arias","matches_in_charge":34,"tenure_days":264,"ppm":0.97,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fortaleza FC come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.1875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.118,"defence":0.139,"effective_matches":16.7,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":-0.114,"defence":-0.083,"effective_matches":15.7,"shrunk":0.34}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":55.7,"shots":14.6,"xg_per_shot":0.098,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.398,"finishing_vs_xg":0.73},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.8,"shots":12.4,"xg_per_shot":0.059,"corners":4,"corners_per_shot":0.324,"finishing_vs_xg":0.44},"possession_gap":5.9},"strength":0.236,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"América de Cali have scored 9 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.73,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fortaleza FC have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.44,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"5 yellow cards in this referee's last 1 games, where 6 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 1 game is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":1,"yellows_per_match":5,"reds_per_match":1,"league_yellows_per_match":5.52,"league_reds_per_match":0.478,"yellow_ratio":0.91,"red_ratio":2.09,"sample":1,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 334 km for Fortaleza FC.","evidence":{"travel_km":334},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.4,"temperature_c":22,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.33138057199641646},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Despite their high standing, América de Cali are ripe for an upset against a resurgent Fortaleza side. The home team sits 2nd in the table, but their results flatter them. They scored 16 goals recently from chances that usually produce only 11. Meanwhile, Fortaleza have been punished for very little, shipping 16 goals when they only gave up chances worth 10. The visitors are trending up and creating better chances lately, losing only one of their last six. América are now without a big chunk of their goals with Daniel Valencia and Tomás Ángel both out, while playing their fourth game in a fortnight. Fatigue against a side creating superior openings will be what settles this.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6189,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":602469,"event_date":"2026-10-29T23:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":753,"home_team":"América de Cali","away_team_id":4782,"away_team":"Fortaleza FC","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":61.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6164,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":602469,"event_date":"2026-10-29T23:15:00Z","home_team":"América de Cali","away_team":"Fortaleza FC","polymarket_event_id":"1178136","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":401.010741,"volume_1wk":401.010741,"volume_1mo":401.010741,"volume_1yr":401.010741,"open_interest":173.28008699999998,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-25T20:27:24Z"}},"computed_at":1793281273,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"live_minute":48,"colors":{"home":"#ca1017","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Olimpico Pascual Guerrero","city":"Santiago de Cali","capacity":38000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}