{"id":602459,"league_id":47,"league":"Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1","kickoff":1789916400,"home":"Club Africain","away":"ES Zarzis","home_id":1899,"away_id":1906,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[1,0],"colors":{"home":"#d6111d","away":"#ed4624"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.16,"bookmaker":"Betano","model_prob":0.821621621621622,"narrative":"Home draw-no-bet at 1.16. The model has Club Africain at 1.36 goals here against ES Zarzis's 0.52 — that gap is the whole case. Put together, the expectation is Club Africain coming out on top if there is a winner. 82% likely, returning 16p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":1,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal in it. Right, but there was nothing spare."}},{"market":"over_under_35","outcome":"under","line":3.5,"odds":1.14,"bookmaker":"1xBet","model_prob":0.821,"narrative":"Under 3.5 goals at 1.14. The model reads this as a 1.88-goal match, and the call follows from that number rather than from either side. Take the lot together and fewer than 3.5 goals in it is the read. We make it 82% at 1.14. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":1,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}