{"id":602458,"league_id":47,"league":"Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1","kickoff":1789916400,"home":"CS Sfaxien","away":"CA Bizertin","home_id":1905,"away_id":1902,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[2,0],"colors":{"home":"#999999","away":"#edd221"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_35","outcome":"under","line":3.5,"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"betfair","model_prob":0.884,"narrative":"Forget that wild 4-0 outcome from their last meeting; this clash has all the hallmarks of a tense, low-scoring grind. CS Sfaxien are stumbling through a frustrating patch, having won just two of their last six fixtures while drawing three of their last six. Can CA Bizertin capitalize? Hardly. Bizertin look completely devoid of quality themselves after losing three of their last six matches. Both sides are in poor shape and struggling for momentum. Expect a tight, cagey affair where goalmouth action stays firmly limited.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":"as we read it","expected_total":1.87,"actual_total":2,"market":"held","opening_odds":1.13,"closing_odds":1.13,"line":"The game went almost exactly as we read it."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"William Hill","model_prob":0.864,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.10. For this to go wrong, CA Bizertin have to beat an expected 0.42 goals by some distance — which is the risk, stated plainly. Add it up and CS Sfaxien avoiding defeat is what this points to. Call it 86%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.19,"bookmaker":"Novibet","model_prob":0.841333333333333,"narrative":"Home draw-no-bet at 1.19. The model has CS Sfaxien at 1.40 goals here against CA Bizertin's 0.42 — that gap is the whole case. Everything above points the same way: CS Sfaxien coming out on top if there is a winner. That puts it at 84%, priced 1.19 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":2,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}}]}