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with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.1875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Schalke 04 come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.145833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.7248857536341785 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.076,"defence":0.052,"effective_matches":0.7,"shrunk":0.92},"away":{"attack":-0.015,"defence":-0.027,"effective_matches":0.8,"shrunk":0.91},"sample":0.7248857536341785,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SG Dynamo Dresden average 9 points more possession than FC Schalke 04, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; SG Dynamo Dresden work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":55.4,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.115,"corners":7.1,"corners_per_shot":0.554,"finishing_vs_xg":0.11},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.3,"shots":12.3,"xg_per_shot":0.111,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.419,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.37},"possession_gap":9.1},"strength":0.365,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.9}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SG Dynamo Dresden are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Schalke 04 have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.37,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"23 yellow cards in this referee's last 6 games, where 21 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 6 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":6,"yellows_per_match":3.83,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":3.49,"league_reds_per_match":0.132,"yellow_ratio":1.1,"red_ratio":0,"sample":6,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 469 km for FC Schalke 04.","evidence":{"travel_km":469},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10,"temperature_c":11,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":-0.8451215158532553},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6176,"created_at":"2026-10-22T02:15:16Z","event":{"id":602352,"event_date":"2026-10-28T17:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1865,"home_team":"SG Dynamo Dresden","away_team_id":1290,"away_team":"FC Schalke 04","league_id":43,"league_name":"DFB Pokal"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":45.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4547,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793188717,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#8c0b16","away":"#0d5f9e"},"venue":{"name":"Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion","city":"Dresden","capacity":32066},"pulled":[],"published":[]}