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call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.04,"defence":-0.023,"effective_matches":0.8,"shrunk":0.91},"away":{"attack":-0.004,"defence":0.031,"effective_matches":1.9,"shrunk":0.81},"sample":0.8188786256065034,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.6,"shots":15.1,"xg_per_shot":0.08,"corners":6,"corners_per_shot":0.397,"finishing_vs_xg":0.21},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":56.3,"shots":16.9,"xg_per_shot":0.106,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.365,"finishing_vs_xg":0.29},"possession_gap":-4.7},"strength":0.189,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SC Paderborn 07 are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.21,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"VfB Stuttgart have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"107 yellow cards in this referee's last 38 games, where 133 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds.","evidence":{"matches":38,"yellows_per_match":2.82,"reds_per_match":0.158,"league_yellows_per_match":3.49,"league_reds_per_match":0.132,"yellow_ratio":0.81,"red_ratio":1.2},"strength":0.175,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-4.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 330 km for VfB Stuttgart.","evidence":{"travel_km":330},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.4,"temperature_c":10,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":-0.8451215158532553},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6174,"created_at":"2026-10-22T02:15:16Z","event":{"id":602346,"event_date":"2026-10-28T17:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1293,"home_team":"SC Paderborn 07","away_team_id":84,"away_team":"VfB Stuttgart","league_id":43,"league_name":"DFB Pokal"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":61.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6131,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793188718,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0e66a8","away":"#e32219"},"venue":{"name":"Home Deluxe Arena","city":"Paderborn","capacity":15000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}