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FC Nürnberg are without 3 players, and Mohamed Ali Zoma is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.238,"players":[{"player":"Mohamed Ali Zoma","role":"ATT","reason":"Dislocated Shoulder","goal_share":0,"importance":0.194,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Finn Ole Becker","role":"MID","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.04,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Kristian Mandić","role":"DEF","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.004,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.595,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.827,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.173,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No league table or round number available, so what either side is playing for is unknown.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Carles Martínez is 11 games into the job at Bayer 04 Leverkusen, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Carles Martínez","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":69,"ppm":2.27,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.2,"after_ppm":2.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Miroslav Klose has 49 matches in charge at 1. 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FC Nürnberg come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.052083333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 0.7198563822371973 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.009,"defence":0.081,"effective_matches":1.5,"shrunk":0.85},"away":{"attack":-0.049,"defence":-0.021,"effective_matches":0.7,"shrunk":0.92},"sample":0.7198563822371973,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59.5,"shots":19.4,"xg_per_shot":0.117,"corners":6.3,"corners_per_shot":0.322,"finishing_vs_xg":0.23},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":57.8,"shots":18.2,"xg_per_shot":0.095,"corners":6,"corners_per_shot":0.33,"finishing_vs_xg":0.52},"possession_gap":1.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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FC Nürnberg have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.52,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"197 yellow cards in this referee's last 46 games, where 161 would be usual in this league, and 13 reds.","evidence":{"matches":46,"yellows_per_match":4.28,"reds_per_match":0.283,"league_yellows_per_match":3.49,"league_reds_per_match":0.132,"yellow_ratio":1.23,"red_ratio":2.15},"strength":0.203,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":5.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 344 km for 1. FC Nürnberg.","evidence":{"travel_km":344},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.5,"temperature_c":10,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. 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Nürnberg arrive having won half of their last six fixtures, but their attacking threat is severely blunted by the absence of their main scorer who has already bagged seven goals this term, including a hat-trick against Dynamo Dresden back in August, before a shoulder injury sidelined him until December. Leverkusen are also missing a chunk of their firepower up front and through the middle, yet they continue to dictate proceedings and create openings. The decisive factor will be Leverkusen sustaining that territorial pressure while Nürnberg try to cope without their primary talisman.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"1. 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